Berri, the “Absent Present” in the Lebanese Opposition Meetings
The opposition forces in the Lebanese parliament have devised a roadmap aimed at breaking the deadlock in the presidential election. However, this initiative is unlikely to achieve its goal of reshuffling the political cards and leading the parliamentary majority to adopt their proposals. It is expected to follow a similar path as previous initiatives, receiving the blessing of the “five-member” committee— the “Quintet” ambassadors— which may facilitate the election process. This was conveyed to the opposition delegation during their meeting with the committee.
Perhaps the reason for the stalemate lies in the fact that both internal and external conditions are not yet favorable for a swift presidential election. International and Arab efforts remain focused on achieving a ceasefire in the Gaza conflict and securing the withdrawal of Israeli forces from southern Lebanon. While parliamentary blocs agree on the importance of dialogue, their approaches to promoting it differ.
The “Quintet” Awaits a Breakthrough
The forced break taken by the “Quintet” ambassadors’ committee is a clear indication that there is a significant hurdle to overcome before the presidential election can proceed. The committee is currently waiting for a breakthrough to restart its efforts, potentially by next month. Western diplomatic sources view this as an opportunity to enhance communication and free the presidential election from the stalemate preventing the selection of a president. They consider this a last chance for the representatives to prepare the necessary conditions for completing the presidential process. Failure to do so will result in a vacancy in the presidency until following the US presidential elections in November.
The opposition delegation, responsible for meeting with parliamentary blocs and independent MPs, is gathering feedback on their roadmap to address the obstacles hindering the presidential election. They are taking note of the observations without responding immediately, likely waiting until the end of their meetings. These meetings are expected to include the Development and Liberation MPs’ bloc headed by Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri, should Berri express a desire to engage with the delegation. This engagement is particularly interesting considering the escalating political campaigning between Berri and the head of the Lebanese Forces Party, Samir Geagea. A prominent parliamentary source confirmed to Asharq Al-Awsat that despite their contentious relationship and disagreements over who should initiate consultation or dialogue, direct communication will continue, even if limited to exchanging opinions from a position of disagreement.
No Presidential Candidates Mentioned
It has become clear that the opposition delegation is avoiding discussing the names of presidential candidates, a fact that has not gone unnoticed by the parliamentary blocs they have met with. This avoidance is attributed to the ongoing disagreement between the opposition and the Free Patriotic Movement regarding the candidacy of former minister Jihad Azour. This disagreement stems from the resistance axis’s continued support for the candidacy of the head of the Marada Movement, former MP Suleiman Franjieh. This impasse hinders the agreement on a compromise candidate who enjoys equal support from all parties.
Despite the opposition’s attempt to distance themselves from the obstruction and pin the blame on the resistance axis, the initial results of their meetings have revealed a widening gap between them and the “Democratic Gathering”. The “Democratic Gathering” does not view the opposition’s initiative as particularly novel, as expressed by MP Wael Abu Faour, who urged all parties to demonstrate greater flexibility in order to reach a solution.
Advice from the “Democratic Gathering”
Asharq Al-Awsat learned that the “Democratic Gathering” delegation emphasized the need to halt the exchange of blame and accusations that are widening the divide between political parties. They advised engaging with Berri to facilitate a compromise leading to the election of the president. This advice echoes the sentiment expressed by the “Free Patriotic Movement,” “Moderation,” and “New Lebanon” blocs, despite their positive response to the opposition’s initiative.
The “Democratic Gathering” delegation underscored the crucial role of Berri in reaching a presidential settlement. They argue that without his participation, the presidential election is impossible. This position is rooted in the opposition’s cessation of communication with “Hezbollah,” which had authorized its ally to take whatever steps deemed necessary in the presidential file. Similar circumstances exist for both the “Lebanese Forces” and the “Free Patriotic Movement”; without their participation, the required political quorum for electing the president cannot be attained.
The “Democratic Gathering” believes that engaging in conflict with Berri is unnecessary and that undermining his role would obstruct the presidential election. They emphasize that the ultimate goal is to achieve a presidential settlement and that resorting to new norms under the pretext of imposing them is unacceptable. They cite the election of General Michel Suleiman as president by parliamentary consensus, without amending the constitution, as a precedent. At the time, Suleiman had to resign prior to his candidacy, as required by the constitution. As Hadi Abu al-Hassan, a member of the Gathering, stated in his intervention before the opposition delegation, necessity dictated Suleiman’s election and necessitates rising above current debates to prioritize the presidential entitlement.
Moving Beyond Dialogue Formalities
Berri’s absence from these meetings was notable, and this was a fact that the representatives of the “Strong Lebanon” bloc were careful to avoid commenting on. The “Free Patriotic Movement” political council addressed the opposition’s proposals, calling for a move beyond formal procedures and refusing to accept any consultative formula as a new constitutional custom if it ultimately leads to elections.
The head of the Free Patriotic Movement, MP Gebran Bassil, is navigating a balance between responding to the opposition’s proposals and strengthening his relationship with Berri. This relationship currently enjoys a “honeymoon” period, a stark contrast to the previous period marked by intense political rivalry.
Despite expressing positive views on the opposition’s initiative, deputies from the centrist political axis, along with the deputies of the “Democratic Gathering” and “Free Patriotic Movement” blocs, emphasize that this should not come at the expense of their relationship with Berri. Meanwhile, several deputies belonging to the “Forces of Change” outside the opposition, including Melhem Khalaf, Ibrahim Mneimneh, Paula Yacoubian, and Firas Hamdan, are inclined to adopt the initiative.
The final outcome of the opposition’s parliamentary meetings remains to be seen. Will they be able to reshuffle the political landscape, given that those who supported Azour’s nomination are unwilling to engage in direct confrontation with Berri and prioritize maintaining communication with him?
Berri, the “absent present” in the Lebanese opposition meetings
The move led by the opposition forces in the Lebanese parliament to market the roadmap they have drawn up to get the presidential entitlement out of the crisis by electing a president for the republic will not achieve the desired goals of reshuffling the cards, leading to the parliamentary majority adopting their proposals to create a breakthrough that facilitates his election, as much as it will join the previous initiatives that received the blessing of the ambassadors of the “five-member” committee, perhaps contributing to facilitating the election, and this is what the committee informed them during its reception of the opposition delegation.
Perhaps the reason lies in the fact that the local and external circumstances are not yet ripe to put the election of the president on a hot fire, and remain stuck on the international and Arab efforts to reach a ceasefire on the Gaza front and his withdrawal from southern Lebanon, even though the parliamentary blocs agree on their support for the dialogue, even if each one has its own way of promoting it.
The “quintet” is waiting for a breakthrough
The forced break that the “Quintet” ambassadors’ committee gave itself remains conclusive evidence, at least in the foreseeable future, that there is difficulty in getting the presidential election out of the waiting room. It is currently awaiting the possibility of a breakthrough to restart its engines, perhaps by next month, which Western diplomatic sources view as a station to boost communications to free the president’s election from the siege that prevents its election. It deals with it, as it tells Asharq Al-Awsat, as giving the representatives an opportunity, perhaps the last, to prepare the conditions for completing the presidential entitlement. Otherwise, the vacuum in the first presidency will last until following the US presidential elections are held next November.
The opposition delegation, tasked with meeting with the parliamentary blocs and independent MPs, is keen to hear their opinion on the roadmap it has prepared to remove the obstacles delaying the election of the president. It is taking note of their observations without responding to them, perhaps until following the end of its meetings, which are supposed to include the Development and Liberation MPs’ bloc headed by Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri, in the event that Berri expresses a desire to communicate with the delegation, regardless of the increasing pace of political campaigning between him and the head of the Lebanese Forces Party, Samir Geagea. This was confirmed by a prominent parliamentary source to Asharq Al-Awsat, adding that the escalation of the dispute between them over who calls for consultation or dialogue will not prevent direct communication, even if the meeting is limited to exchanging opinions from a position of disagreement.
No names of candidates
It became clear that the opposition delegation is avoiding discussing the names of the presidential candidates, and this is what the parliamentary blocs that met with it so far have sensed. It was said that the reason lies in the fact that the opposition is still at odds with the Free Patriotic Movement in supporting the candidacy of former minister Jihad Azour, as long as the axis of resistance remains on the candidacy of the head of the Marada Movement, former MP Suleiman Franjieh. This is what blocks the path to agreeing on a settlement based on understanding a candidate who stands at an equal distance from everyone.
However, the initial results of the opposition meetings, even if they seek through their initiative to exonerate themselves from obstruction and to pin them on the axis of resistance, lie in the widening of the scope of their disagreement with the “Democratic Gathering,” which did not see anything new in its initiative, as the “Gathering” member, MP Wael Abu Faour, said, calling on the parties to show more flexibility in order to reach a solution.
Advice from the “Democratic Gathering”
Asharq Al-Awsat learned that the “Democratic Gathering” delegation stressed the need to stop the exchange of responsibilities and accusations that lead to deepening the gap between the parties, advising to communicate with Berri to produce a settlement that leads to the election of the president. This is what the “Free Patriotic Movement,” “Moderation,” and “New Lebanon” blocs also advised, despite their positive response to the initiative.
The “Democratic Gathering” delegation is starting its call on the opposition to communicate with Berri, saying that the presidential settlement remains impossible without him, in light of the opposition’s cessation of communication with “Hezbollah”, which had authorized its ally to take whatever it deems appropriate in the presidential file. The same position applies to the “Lebanese Forces” and the “Free Patriotic Movement”; without one of them, the political quorum for electing the president cannot be secured.
The Democratic Gathering believes that there is no need to clash with Berri, and that jumping over his role would obstruct the election of the president. It stresses that the ultimate goal is to reach a presidential settlement, and it is not permissible to use the pretext of imposing new norms, especially since the army commander at the time, General Michel Suleiman, was elected president by parliamentary consensus, without amending the text included in the constitution that requires him to resign before a period of time before his candidacy, as Hadi Abu al-Hassan, a member of the Gathering, said in his intervention before the opposition delegation, adding that necessity necessitated his election, just as it necessitates today rising above the debates in favor of achieving the presidential entitlement.
Go beyond the formalities of dialogue
Therefore, Berri was the “present absentee” in the opposition meetings, and this is what the representatives of the “Strong Lebanon” bloc were keen to refrain from commenting on, and they left the position to the political council of the “Free Patriotic Movement” which showed its response to the opposition’s proposals, calling at the same time to go beyond formalities and not to consider any consultative formula a new constitutional custom if its result was guaranteed by holding elections.
The head of the Free Patriotic Movement, MP Gebran Bassil, is balancing between his response to the opposition’s proposals and his keenness to activate his relationship with Berri, which is currently going through a “honeymoon” unlike the previous period, which was dominated by unprecedented political rivalry.
Accordingly, the deputies belonging to the centrist axis, along with the deputies of the “Democratic Gathering” and “Free Patriotic Movement” blocs, although they appear positive in their dealings with the opposition initiative, insist that it not be at the expense of their relationship with Berri, while a number of deputies belonging to the “Forces of Change” from outside the opposition, headed by Melhem Khalaf, Ibrahim Mneimneh, Paula Yacoubian and Firas Hamdan, tend to adopt its initiative.
How will the opposition act at the end of its parliamentary meetings? Will it be able to reshuffle the cards, given that those who agreed with it on Azour’s nomination are not willing to engage in it, since they do not need to enter into a free confrontation with Berri, and are keen to communicate with him?
