In an overview published on the social network Facebook on Tuesday, military expert Egidijus Papeckys drew attention to the mass shootings carried out by Russian forces.
“It shouldn’t have come as a surprise to us – we knew very well that Russia was stockpiling missiles and drones for the winter, and that there would be mass shootings, we just didn’t know which targets would be targeted, many expected targeted strikes on the energy system,” he wrote.
The expert noted that the Kremlin’s propaganda is trying to imply that it is taking revenge for the shelling of Belgorod.
“On the one hand, yes, and on the other hand, not so much.” Mass strikes were inevitable, maybe they just happened a little earlier because they were probably planned for colder weather.”
It is possible that Ukraine’s energy system will suffer less this winter because the missiles intended for it hit other targets, assessed E. Papečkys.
He also raised a question that is getting more and more attention in the media – might the Russians have shelled Belgorod themselves to justify mass strikes once morest Ukraine?
“It sounds illogical, because Russia has already carried out so many shellings and committed so many war crimes once morest Ukrainians that it seems pointless to justify new strikes. But… the Kremlin’s regime and logic are in completely different universes,” said the military expert.
E. Papečkys indicated that on Tuesday, the Kremlin “without blinking an eye, admitted that one air-launched missile intended for Ukraine detached itself from the aircraft carrier and fluttered in the Voronezh region, 800 km from Ukraine, and damaged 6 houses”.
The intense shelling in Ukraine caused a stir in the West, among the heads of state there were calls to transfer more air defense equipment to Kyiv.
“It would be good if words turned into deeds, especially since such a need to strengthen the defense with new anti-aircraft means has been talked regarding every day since the beginning of the war,” the expert wrote.
In his opinion, an assessment of the events at the front shows that so far the apocalyptic predictions of many commentators have not come true: the battles are routine, and the Russians continue to have small tactical achievements.
“Anything can happen in war, but for now my opinion that the aggressor will engage the Ukrainians in battles of attrition at a shallow depth, and that his achievements will be limited to that, has been confirmed.”
The Ukrainians managed to keep Avdijivka until now and prevent it from being cut off, E. Papečkys wrote. He agreed that the situation in the area remains difficult, but not yet critical.
“Hopefully, this will continue. Although, one has to admit that such a tactic of exhaustion is more favorable to the aggressor.”
The military expert also estimated that the Russians are better at increasing their forces little by little, while the Ukrainians have problems ensuring the necessary number of soldiers are drafted and prepared for service.
AFP/Scanpix photo/Russian President Vladimir Putin
He pointed out that the so-called volunteer formations of the aggressor are only increasing and becoming military units equivalent to regular forces.
“The increase is not very large, but it is ongoing and, what is very important, is implemented without mobilization, based on materially interested volunteers.
On the other hand, as I have already written, some experienced volunteer units are practically disbanded in order to limit the possibility of local actors having independent loyal forces at their disposal. Now the Kremlin does not need new decorations, even if they are miniature ones”, summarized E. Papečkys.
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2024-07-11 06:49:39
