Beijing’s Thunderbolts
The Philippines and Japan, long-standing allies of the United States, have recently strengthened their alliances with Australia. Manila has already signed similar agreements with Canberra and Washington and is considering a new one with France.
Chinese authorities, on the other hand, accused Washington last month of aiming to establish “an Asia-Pacific version of NATO” to maintain its dominance in the region. The signing of this agreement comes at a time of heightened tensions surrounding Taiwan and the South China Sea, raising concerns regarding a broader conflict that might involve the United States, a Philippine ally. Incidents between Chinese and Filipino vessels in the South China Sea, waters disputed by both countries, have increased in recent months.
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The most serious incident occurred on June 17, when Chinese coast guard personnel armed with knives, sticks, and an axe surrounded and boarded three Philippine Navy vessels on a resupply mission for Filipino soldiers stationed on a stranded military ship on Second Thomas Atoll. A Filipino sailor lost his thumb during the incident.
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Tokyo and Manila, Ever Closer
Tensions are also high between Tokyo and Beijing over disputed islands controlled by Japan in the East China Sea. While Japan occupied the Philippines during World War II, the two countries have since grown closer economically and, more recently, in opposing China’s power.
Tokyo is a major supplier of security equipment to the Philippines, including patrol vessels for the Philippines’ coast guard and radar surveillance systems for its coasts. Kazuya Endo, Tokyo’s ambassador to Manila, noted in a speech on Thursday “significant developments” in Japan’s defense supply to the Philippines. Japan has already signed similar reciprocal access agreements with Britain and Australia in recent years.
The Philippines, a Strategic Position
The agreement between Manila and Tokyo is significant because it will allow the Philippines “to improve its interoperability with like-minded partners,” stated Don McLain Gill, a Manila-based geopolitical analyst. The Philippines has been at the center of U.S. alliance-building efforts due to its position in the South China Sea and proximity to Taiwan, which China claims as its territory. Beijing has intensified its diplomatic and military pressure around the self-ruled island, dispatching frequent planes and ships to the area.
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In the event of a conflict, Manila’s support would be crucial for the United States. Japanese, Philippine, and American leaders held their first trilateral summit in April to bolster defense ties in Washington. The summit followed Manila’s hosting of joint military exercises in the South China Sea involving the United States, Japan, and Australia.
Japan, cautious regarding potential changes in U.S. policy in the region, is also seeking to “play a greater role” as an independent, stabilizing force, according to Don McLain Gill.
Beijing’s Thunderbolts: Philippines and Japan Tighten Ties Amidst China’s Assertions
The Philippines and Japan, both long-standing allies of the United States, are steadily strengthening their defense partnerships in the face of China’s increasingly assertive posture in the region. This dynamic shift is evident in the recent signing of a reciprocal access agreement between Manila and Tokyo, mirroring similar agreements already in place between Japan and other key allies, including Australia and Britain.
A Strategic Triangle Takes Shape
This development underscores the growing strategic alliance between Manila, Tokyo, and Washington as they navigate intensifying tensions with Beijing. The Philippines, strategically located in the South China Sea, is a crucial player in the US’s efforts to counter China’s influence. Its proximity to Taiwan, a self-ruled island claimed by China, makes it a vital location for any potential military contingencies in the region.
The new reciprocal access agreement between Manila and Tokyo allows for greater interoperability between their armed forces, enabling them to swiftly respond to threats and conduct joint exercises. This agreement is seen as a significant boost to the Philippines’ defense capabilities, particularly in navigating the disputed waters of the South China Sea.
Escalating Tensions
The heightened tensions between China and its neighbors stem from China’s increasingly aggressive claims over vast swathes of the South China Sea, which Beijing views as its sovereign territory. This assertion has sparked territorial disputes with several Southeast Asian nations, including the Philippines, Vietnam, and Malaysia.
The South China Sea has become a hotbed of confrontation, with Chinese coast guard vessels frequently engaging in provocative maneuvers, including harassing Filipino fishing boats and intruding into Philippine territorial waters. The most serious incident occurred in June when Chinese coast guard personnel, wielding knives, sticks and an axe, boarded three Philippine Navy vessels on a resupply mission for Filipino soldiers stationed on a grounded military ship in Second Thomas Shoal. This incident resulted in a Filipino sailor losing his thumb.
China’s Assertiveness Fuels Alliances
China’s aggressive actions have galvanized its neighbors to strengthen their defenses and forge stronger alliances with like-minded countries, particularly the United States. This has spurred a trend of enhanced military cooperation, joint exercises, and the sharing of defense technology.
Japan, increasingly concerned regarding China’s ambitions, has been actively supporting the Philippines’ efforts to bolster its defenses. Tokyo has become a leading supplier of security equipment to Manila, including patrol vessels for the Philippine Coast Guard and advanced radar surveillance systems. These developments have been highlighted by Kazuya Endo, Japan’s ambassador to Manila, who recently emphasized the “significant developments” in Japan’s defense supply to the Philippines.
A Shifting Balance in the Pacific
The Philippines’ strategic position and its commitment to strengthening its defenses have attracted significant attention from major powers, including the United States, Japan, and China. These strategic players are increasingly vying for influence in the region, creating a complex and dynamic geopolitical landscape.
Analysts predict that the shifting alliances in the Pacific will further intensify the regional power balance, with both the United States and China seeking to maintain their dominance. The Philippines, caught in the middle, faces mounting pressure to choose sides, potentially impacting its domestic politics and foreign policy.
Looking Ahead: A Path Towards Stability
The strategic alignment between the Philippines, Japan and the United States reflects a shared commitment to maintaining a stable and prosperous region. However, the growing tensions with China pose a significant challenge, requiring careful diplomacy and strategic engagement to prevent escalation.
The key to mitigating the risks and fostering a more stable environment in the Pacific lies in open communication, dialogue, and a willingness to find common ground. By fostering cooperation and addressing concerns through peaceful means, nations can work towards ensuring a future free from conflict and dominated by mutual respect and shared interests.
Table: Key Developments in the South China Sea
| Year | Event | Impact |
|---|---|---|
| 2012 | China establishes a new administrative district in the South China Sea. | Increased tensions and maritime disputes with Vietnam, the Philippines, and other claimants. |
| 2014 | China deploys a drilling rig in disputed waters near Vietnam. | Anti-China protests in Vietnam and a diplomatic standoff with Vietnam and other countries. |
| 2016 | An international arbitration tribunal rules in favor of the Philippines on its claims once morest China. | China rejects the ruling, further fueling tensions with the Philippines |
| 2021 | Philippines and China begin talks for an oil and gas exploration deal | Potential for economic cooperation amidst ongoing territorial disputes |
