Electoral observers believe that the election of reformist Masoud Peseshkian as RAN president will not significantly impact the Middle East region. Iran’s control, based on Shia imperialist views, will not cede spiritual leadership to the regime any closer. Masood is unlikely to change local policies. Shia interests will continue to be imposed, including in Yemen. Consequently, the Gulf countries and Iran will likely continue their cold struggle. Iran’s interference in Syria, Yemen, and Iraq affects the stability of the Middle East region.
Meanwhile, the US is not expected to lift sanctions once morest Iran easily. Iran continues to face international isolation, internal discontent, an ailing economy, and the potential for direct conflict with Israel. Despite Masood’s election campaign promises to “open Iran to the world,” rebuild relations with the Iranian people, improve the economy, and ease restrictions under Iran’s strict moral code, all decisions in Iran originate from the spiritual leadership. A new president cannot alter this structure.
“The problem is that the final decision-maker in Iran is not the president. His mandate is usually limited to the ‘Middle East and North Africa,'” highlighted Dina Esfandiary, senior advisor at the International Crisis Group. Iran’s spiritual leader, Ayatollah Ali Khomeini, remains involved in governance despite his ill health. “Masood’s ability to implement any kind of reform agenda is in doubt. There will be no major changes either internally or externally,” Esfandiary noted. The only positive is the resolution of the leadership crisis in Iran.
Iran’s collapse would ultimately not benefit the region. The repercussions of social disunity would spread throughout the region. Gulf governments congratulated Masood on his election as the new president. Gulf regimes seek better relations with neighboring countries, and Masood is perceived as a potential facilitator for this.
The departure of former president Ibrahim Raizi, who died in a helicopter accident, was a significant shock for Iran. A new election was announced even before Raizi’s burial. Ibrahim Raizi was also the leader designated as the successor of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khomeini. Due to Khomeini’s age and health, the government and religious scholars felt a successor should be found promptly.
Conspiracy outside the country to topple Iran’s regime is intensifying. Simultaneously, modernist protests are growing within the country. Ibrahim Raizi was considered a capable leader to confront these challenges. Masood has been promoted to fill that vacancy. India, Russia, and China support Iran in international forums, providing relief for Masood. However, the need to choose Ayatollah Khomeini’s successor remains pressing. Khomeini, who has reached 85 years of age and faces physical ailments, is expected to be succeeded by his son Syed Mujtaba. If this occurs, changes in Iran’s governance system are unlikely for the foreseeable future.
Masoud Peseshkian’s Election: Will Iran’s Policies Change?
The election of reformist Masoud Peseshkian as the new president of the Islamic Republic of Iran has sparked significant discussion regarding potential shifts in Iranian policy both domestically and internationally. While some analysts believe that Peseshkian’s presidency might usher in a period of greater openness and engagement with the world, others remain skeptical, pointing to the enduring influence of Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
Limited Scope of Presidential Power
The Iranian government operates under a complex system of governance where the Supreme Leader holds ultimate authority in all matters of state. This means that the President’s power is generally limited to overseeing domestic affairs and implementing policies already approved by the Supreme Leader and the Guardian Council. As such, Peseshkian’s ability to enact significant changes to Iran’s foreign policy is likely to be constrained.
Dina Esfandiary, a senior adviser at the International Crisis Group, points out that “the final decision-maker in Iran is not the president. His mandate is usually limited to the ‘Middle East and North Africa.”
Domestic Reform Challenges
While Peseshkian campaigned on a platform of reform, including opening Iran to the world, improving the economy, and easing social restrictions, his ability to deliver on these promises remains unclear. The Supreme Leader retains ultimate control over all aspects of Iranian governance, including the judiciary, security forces, and the state media. This makes it difficult for a president to implement significant changes without the Supreme Leader’s consent.
Peseshkian’s predecessor, Ibrahim Raisi, also promised economic reforms and improved living standards, but he was ultimately unable to deliver on these promises due to the inherent limitations on presidential power. Raisi’s death in a helicopter accident led to a swift election for a new president, highlighting the regime’s deep-seated fear of instability and the need to maintain control.
Iran’s Regional Influence Remains Unchanged
Despite Peseshkian’s election, Iran is unlikely to significantly change its approach to regional affairs. The country continues to maintain significant influence in the Middle East, particularly in Iraq, Syria, and Yemen. Iran’s Shia-backed militias and proxies remain a powerful force in these regions, and there is little indication that Peseshkian will seek to curtail their activities.
Iran’s intervention in regional conflicts has been a major source of instability and tensions in the Middle East. The country’s support for Bashar al-Assad in Syria and the Houthis in Yemen has fueled regional conflicts and led to humanitarian crises.
International Isolation Persists
Iran’s international isolation is unlikely to abate in the near future, regardless of Peseshkian’s presidency. The country continues to face widespread international sanctions due to its nuclear program and support for terrorism.
The United States remains reluctant to lift sanctions once morest Iran, and there is no indication that Peseshkian will be able to significantly improve relations with the West. The current political climate in the United States is unlikely to support a major shift in policy towards Iran. Additionally, Israel, a staunch opponent of Iran’s nuclear ambitions, remains highly influential in US policymaking.
Leadership Succession and Uncertain Future
The ongoing health challenges of the Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, have led to a sense of urgency in determining his successor. The regime is eager to avoid a protracted power struggle that might destabilize the country. Khamenei’s son, Syed Mujtaba, is considered the leading contender for the position, and his potential succession might signal a continuation of the current political system.
The leadership transition will likely have a significant impact on Iran’s future. If a hardliner like Syed Mujtaba assumes the position of Supreme Leader, it might further restrict political and social freedoms in Iran, making it even more difficult for a president to enact meaningful reforms.
Shifting Power Dynamics
The Gulf states, which have long been wary of Iranian influence in the region, are watching Peseshkian’s presidency closely. They have welcomed his election, hoping that it might lead to improved relations between Iran and its neighbors. However, these hopes are tempered by the continuing influence of hardliners in the Iranian government.
While the Gulf states may be eager to re-establish diplomatic ties with Iran, they are also aware of the need to maintain a strong defense posture. They recognize that the Iranian government remains a potential threat to their security and stability.
