7/7/2024 Updated 26 minutes ago|Source: ČT24, ČTK
ČT24 special: The French elect a new parliament (source: ČT24)
The second round of the parliamentary elections in France was apparently unexpectedly won by the left-wing New People’s Front bloc. According to estimates by the Ipsos agency, he might win 172 to 192 seats. Macron’s government camp Together probably finished second, it might have 170 seats. The far-right National Association (RN), which was considered the favorite, probably finished third, according to estimates, it will get a maximum of 152 seats. However, none of the blocs will win a majority in the lower house of parliament, the National Assembly. Former Prime Minister Gabriel Attal (Together) announced in the evening that he would resign on Monday.
Official results are not expected until Sunday night or Monday morning. The Constitution does not impose on the President when he must entrust the new Prime Minister with the formation of the government. According to the media, the negotiations may last at least several days.
Jean-Luc Mélenchon, leader of the far-left France Unconquered (LFI), which is the strongest player in the left-wing bloc, took the floor immediately following the polls closed and the estimates were published at 8 p.m. According to Mélenchon, the election result is a huge relief for millions of French people and the left has saved the republic. Mélenchon then demanded the resignation of Prime Minister Gabriel Attal and the appointment of a government led by the LFI.
“France tonight said no to the RN coming to power,” declared Socialist Party chief Olivier Faure. He refused that his party, which is a member of the left-wing bloc, would be involved in any non-unified government, essentially ruling out cooperation with Macron’s camp, just like Mélenchon, writes Le Monde. The leader of the Green Party, also in the left-wing bloc, Marine Tondelier, said that social justice, the environment and the people had won the election.
According to those close to him, President Emmanuel Macron has called for restraint, because according to him, the estimates do not answer the question of who will govern. The President will respect the will of the people, but will wait for the final results, the Elysee Palace said according to Reuters. According to Le Monde, Macron will not make a public statement on Sunday evening and is expected to travel to the NATO summit in Washington on Wednesday.
In response to the estimated results, Prime Minister Attal announced that he would resign. He appreciated that “no extremist party” won a majority in the election, which he attributed to the “French spirit”. He also distanced himself from Macron. “Let us show the greatness and strength of our country,” he said.
RN prime ministerial candidate Jordan Bardella expressed his frustration with the result in a speech, saying the French people had been “prepared” for a National Association victory. He criticized the opposition that had formed once morest his party. “These alliances tonight are throwing France into the arms of Jean-Luc Mélenchon’s far left,” he declared.
The leader of the RN MPs, Marine Le Pen, who defended her mandate already in the first round, pointed to the increase in the number of mandates for the RN compared to the 2022 elections. According to Le Pen, Macron is in an unsustainable situation and the victory of the RN was now only delayed.
Czech Radio analyst Filip Nerad thinks that, given the difficult situation that probably awaits France following the elections, Le Pen can benefit from the election results following all. “It can be grist to the mill of her presidential candidacy in 2027,” he said in the ČT discussion.
Among others, the Minister of the Interior Gérald Darmanin, former Prime Minister Élisabeth Borne, the head of the Republicans Éric Ciotti or former Socialist President François Hollande defended their parliamentary mandates.
Reaction from abroad
Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk commented on the results of the exit polls on the X social network. “Enthusiasm in Paris, disappointment in Moscow, relief in Kiev. That is enough for Warsaw to be satisfied,” he stated. The national association is often associated with Russia mainly because of Le Pen’s ties to Russian ruler Vladimir Putin.
The euro weakened 0.3 percent once morest the U.S. dollar on Sunday evening following the announcement of estimates of the results of French parliamentary elections, in which the far left unexpectedly won. The euro was last traded at $1.08, Reuters reported. The euro also weakened once morest the British pound and the Japanese yen.
The results point to a deadlocked parliament without the necessary majority to form a government. “Parties standing once morest the far right really seem to have gained a lot of support,” said Simon Harvey of Monex Europe, commenting on the election results. “But from a market perspective, there is basically no difference in terms of the outcome. There will really be a vacuum in terms of France’s ability to pass laws,” he added.
Long-term victory belongs to Le Pen, say analysts
“The post-election negotiations will be very complicated, because on the one hand there are quite fundamental programmatic differences between the New People’s Front and Macron’s coalition Together, and on the other hand there are quite significant political and, in essence, personal animosities between Macron’s politicians and between Jean-Luc Mélenchon’s Unconquered France, which is the strongest part of the New People’s Front,” said Vít Hloušek from the Department of International Relations and European Studies and the International Institute of Political Science at Masaryk University. According to him, it is a question of whether the New People’s Front will clear up or collapse and require fundamental concessions. Michal Pink from the Department of Political Science at Masaryk University believes that a government of Macron’s camp and the left will be formed. “It’s just a question of how,” he noted.
According to Hloušek, President Macron will have an even less compatible government than before, compromises will be more difficult. “If a left-Macron coalition government is formed, France can forget regarding the economic and social reforms that Macron planned to make in his current second five-year mandate. Either it won’t move anywhere, or it may even move to the left,” said the political scientist.
According to Pink, the National Association of Jordan Bardella and Marine Le Pen will be the main, very vocal opposition. According to him, by entering the government, the left-wing coalition will have to take unpopular steps and will begin to lose popularity. “Macron and the left-wing coalition now have a tactical victory. But the long-term strategic victory belongs to Le Pen,” thinks Pink. According to him, the national association will be able to take advantage of the social mood in the presidential elections in three years.
In foreign policy, both political scientists point to the president’s more prominent role. “Both parties (Macron’s camp and the left), albeit with slightly different rhetoric, want to maintain relatively essential aid to Ukraine,” said Hloušek. Nor does he expect any significant tension in European politics. However, according to him, the two camps differ on some points. “The New Popular Front has a clear pro-Palestinian position on the war in Gaza,” he said. Pink also drew attention to the pro-Palestinian and even anti-Semitic stance of the left.
The national association won the first round
President Emmanuel Macron unexpectedly announced early parliamentary elections following the failure of the government camp in the European Parliament elections at the beginning of June. In the first round of elections last Sunday, the new left-wing bloc New People’s Front came in second. Macron’s government camp Together finished third with a significant margin.
Although the RN clearly won in the first round and won 39 mandates, the party was apparently weakened by the formation of the Republican Front. Most of the other parties agreed on this before the second round, in which more than five hundred mandates are decided. In many constituencies, candidates in third place withdrew from the elections in order to strengthen the chances of victory for the remaining candidate of one of the civic parties.
