Each intelligence and army intelligence chiefs, for his or her half, emphasize that Russia is making ready for a long-term confrontation with the West.
“It may be said that there aren’t any vital main modifications in assessing the army threats to Lithuania within the close to time period, however, following all, Russia stays a direct army menace to the whole Alliance,” mentioned Kęstutis Budrys, the president’s chief adviser on nationwide safety points, on Tuesday following the assembly of the State Protection Council (VGT). .
Based on him, the VGT members agreed that Lithuania should plan numerous actions in case of varied safety eventualities.
“Lithuania’s safety state of affairs at the moment relies upon not solely on the dynamics of the conflict in Ukraine, but additionally on occasions in different areas and globally. This would be the case sooner or later as properly,” the president’s adviser asserted.
Darius Jauniškis, Director Common of the Division of State Safety (VSD), claimed that there aren’t any indicators that the conflict in Ukraine has been frozen.
“Russia’s conflict towards Ukraine will stay an important issue shaping the regional safety agenda. It’s unlikely that Russia’s aggression, targets or technique will change. Apparently, that state of affairs will stay the identical as final 12 months,” he asserted.
Based on the pinnacle of intelligence, Russia will search to cut back Western assist for Ukraine, it’s possible that it’ll proceed to interact in disinformation and nuclear blackmail.
“We see that the Kremlin is making ready for a long-term confrontation with the West and has a reasonably big selection of instruments and devices, which it would actually use to cut back Western assist for Ukraine,” he instructed reporters following the VGT assembly.
“After all, data and cyber operations shall be used, which we’re at the moment monitoring. After all, nuclear blackmail is one such device,” he added.
Based on the VSD director, incidents initiated by Russia within the territories of NATO nations can’t be dominated out.
Based on him, extra lively strain from the Kremlin on the problems of the Kaliningrad area is probably going.
“They see Kaliningrad as their weak level. Indisputably, one can count on aggressive rhetoric from them particularly in relation to Lithuania as a result of state of affairs in Kaliningrad”, mentioned D. Jauniškis.
Colonel Elegijs Paulavičius, director of the second division of operational providers, mentioned that at the moment the primary precedence of the Kremlin regime is to not lose the conflict in Ukraine, which is why the best capabilities at the moment are being concentrated there, and the quantity of Russian floor forces at NATO’s borders, together with Lithuania, has considerably decreased.
“Nonetheless, different parts of the Russian army, such because the navy, air power, and air protection, stay largely unchanged within the area,” he mentioned.
Based on E. Paulavičius, Russia has the purpose of restoring the diminished capabilities within the course of the West, due to this fact it’s planning a long-term enhance of forces.
“Russia is finishing up two processes on the identical time – it’s mobilizing assets within the course of Ukraine and on the identical time creating new capabilities for a long-term confrontation with the West,” he asserted.
The top of the VSD additionally identified that the battle within the Center East has a adverse affect on the safety state of affairs, in line with him, tensions from the Center East are additionally spreading to Europe.
“It’s possible that the specter of terrorism will develop in Europe, and we aren’t protected in the identical means,” mentioned D. Jauniškis.
Based on him, since three elections shall be held in Lithuania this 12 months, it’s predicted that Chinese language intelligence will take note of that.
“Now we have little doubt that Chinese language intelligence will search to gather details regarding the elections to be held in Lithuania. It’s in China’s curiosity to alter our coverage in the direction of Taiwan,” he mentioned.
Along with the menace evaluation, the VGT, which met on Tuesday, thought-regarding the creation of the division and the mandatory army acquisitions.
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2024-06-09 19:10:18