The war in Myanmar is in a critical phase

Myawaddy is close to the border with Thailand and is an important hub for trade between Myanmar and Thailand.

In early April, the Karen People’s National Liberation Army (KNLA) and the People’s Defense Forces (PDF) – which were formed by pro-democracy activists following the 2021 coup – managed to take full control of the strategically important city.

Since then, there have been reports that the KNLA has withdrawn from the city, but only temporarily. The fierce fighting in the area has caused thousands of civilians to flee across the border into Thailand.

According to analysts, what happens in the next few weeks, both in Myawaddy and elsewhere in the country, will be decisive for what happens in the next phase of the bloody war.

Low pressure can prevent air strikes

The reason why the war is in a particularly intense phase is the upcoming monsoon rains and dense cloud cover that hits Myanmar every year at the beginning of June. The junta in particular may be weakened by the rain because it makes it more difficult to use planes and helicopters, both for attacks and for transporting supplies.

Much is at stake, such as important trade routes and military outposts, both in Myawaddy, the western state of Rakhine and in other areas along Myanmar’s long border with China and Thailand.

In the coming weeks, the junta will probably do everything to try to recapture some of these areas before the rains arrive, says Professor Zachary Abuza at the National War College in Washington DC. ON the other side, the rebels will do everything to keep them.

Reuters has tried to get a comment from a spokesman for the junta, but without getting a response.

Have lost thousands of positions

Since last autumn, the junta has suffered a series of defeats on the battlefield, while the country’s economy is in free fall. Not since it carried out the coup on 1 February 2021 and put an effective stop to the democratic process has the junta experienced so much hardship.

So far, the military has lost control of half of its 5,280 military posts and 60 percent of the territory it previously controlled in the country’s minority-dominated areas, according to estimates by the United States Institute of Peace (USIP).

If they fail to turn the tide, they risk losing control over all important border areas with Bangladesh, China, India and Thailand within the next six months, according to an unnamed Thai official and a diplomat.

None of them will be named as they are not authorized to speak to the press.

They point out that the government army is now spread over large areas, and that they have to fight on many different fronts at the same time. Eventually, they may have to pool their resources so that they at least secure a few important areas, the analysts believe.

Can be long-lasting

But although the junta is weakened and has lost a large number of soldiers, they have also managed to inflict significant losses on the rebels. And they still have control over the lowlands in the center of the country, which are dominated by the country’s largest ethnic group.

Thitinan Pongsudhirak, a political analyst based in Thailand, believes the military will be able to resist for a long time to come. But he does not think the junta will be able to hold on to power in the long run. For that, the losses are too great, the resistance too great and the support in the population too small, he believes.

Having lost control of Myawaddy, the military has launched a counter-offensive to retake the town. Now the Karen guerrillas – who have been fighting for their own state since 1947 – are trying to fight back the offensive.

– Over 1,000 soldiers are advancing towards Myawaddy, but the KNLA’s combined forces are still fighting hard to stop them, block them and attack them, says the guerrilla’s spokesman Saw Taw Nee to Reuters.

– There are heavy battles going on every single day, he adds.

Important city in the west

About 90 miles west of Myawaddy, the junta is also fighting the Rohingya-based Arakan guerrillas, who are trying to take control of the town of Ann. It houses both an important military headquarters and a gas facility linked to an 80-mile pipeline between China and Myanmar.

Analysts believe that the military will do everything to retain control of the city.

But the monsoon rains will make it more difficult for the Air Force to use war materiel without guidance systems, according to Richard Horsey, an adviser to the International Crisis Group (ICG).

– It is also becoming more difficult and dangerous to use helicopters to transport soldiers, bring in supplies and provide air support, he says.

Battle morale on the line

In recent months, the military has experienced many soldiers deserting. Morale has collapsed because the junta has problems getting food, water, ammunition and medical supplies to the soldiers, Abuza believes.

On the other hand, the rain might be a positive factor for the resistance forces, who have made great progress in recent months, but who need time to ensure better coordination between the many different guerrillas and grassroots movements fighting together to remove the junta from power.

If they manage to secure a strategic coordination, it will decide the war, believes Ye Myo Hein of the United States Institute of Peace.

Kyaw Zaw, spokesman for Myanmar’s shadow government NUG, states that the junta currently only controls the large cities in central areas.

– Even there they are threatened, he says.