2024-05-12 15:11:23
Researchers from the Global Systems Laboratory (GSL) of the NOAA have developed an innovative pollen activity forecast. This experimental model, which has been in operation since summer 2022, can predict how climate affects pollen concentrations and vice versa.
According to the scientist attached to the GSL, Jordan Quickthis advancement allows people adjust your outdoor activities and take preventative measures to improve your well-being.
The model is part of the system Rapid-Refresh Chemistry (RAP-Chem)a next generation tool for weather and air quality prediction.
How pollen affects the climate and vice versa
RAP-Chem integrates simulation of atmospheric chemistry and aerosol and gas transport, producing a daily 48-hour forecast covering ozone, smoke, dust and other elements related to atmospheric chemistry, including pollen.
A distinctive feature of RAP-Chem is its ability to simulate the influence of climate on pollen concentrations. During the day, pollen is released into the air, driven by the winds that the model simulates. At night, emissions cease and concentrations decrease as particles settle to the ground.
The model also considers how rain can clean pollen from the air, although phenomena such as cold downdrafts from storms can concentrate these particles, exacerbating problems such as asthma or eye irritation.
Additionally, humidity and rays can break pollen into smaller particles, making it easier to clean. inhalation and alters its impact on the climate.
Unlike other models, RAP-Chem evaluates how pollen, along with dust and smoke, affect the climate. These particles can scatter sunlight, act as nuclei for cloud formation, and alter aspects such as temperature and precipitation.
NOAA researchers are currently collaborating with public health entities to examine the correlation between RAP-Chem’s high pollen forecasts and patients seeking treatment for allergies.
This study is essential to validate the model, an essential step for it to become a official forecast product.
This NOAA effort not only contributes to improve the accuracy of weather and air quality forecastsbut also offers a valuable resource for people to better manage their pollen exposure and its associated effects.
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