Why Russia sends a strong signal to the West by announcing military exercises with nuclear weapons – 2024-05-11 09:00:02

Russian officials said the order responded to comments from the West regarding the possibility of more direct involvement in Ukraine. NATO called Russia’s announcement “irresponsible.”

Russia said on Monday it would hold military exercises with troops stationed near Ukraine to practice the possible use of nuclear weapons on the battlefield, a defiant warning designed to deter the West from deepening its support for Ukraine.

These weapons, often called “tactical,” are designed for use on the battlefield and have smaller warheads than “strategic” nuclear weapons intended to attack cities. The Russian Defense Ministry reported that President Vladimir Putin had ordered an exercise for naval, aviation and missile personnel to “increase the readiness of non-strategic nuclear forces to carry out combat missions.”

The announcement of the exercise was Russia’s most explicit warning in its more than two-year invasion of Ukraine that it might use tactical nuclear weapons there. The Kremlin said it came in response to comments by two European leaders who raised the possibility of more direct Western intervention in the war.

According to the Ministry of Defense, forces from the Southern Military District, an area that covers Russian-occupied Ukraine and part of Russia’s border region with Ukraine, would participate in the exercise. He said the exercise would take place “in the near future.”

The order raises tensions with the West at the start of a week of widespread publicity for Putin. His inauguration was scheduled for Tuesday, followed on Thursday by the annual celebration of Victory Day, which commemorates the Soviet triumph in World War II.

It also coincided with a visit to Europe by Chinese President Xi Jinping, who has promised a “limitless” alliance with Russia. China has provided support to the Russian military industry, according to US officials, despite persistent pressure from the West to refrain from helping Russia in its war effort.

Western officials have long worried that Russia might deploy tactical nuclear weapons, especially if it suffers serious setbacks on the battlefield. But Putin denied in March that he had considered it, even though he regularly reminds the world of Russia’s vast nuclear arsenal as a way to keep Western military support for Ukraine in check.

On Monday, however, Russian officials said warnings regarding the possibility of more direct Western involvement in the war had changed the situation. The Defense Ministry said the exercise would be carried out “to unconditionally guarantee the territorial integrity and sovereignty of the Russian State in response to provocative statements and threats by individual Western officials once morest the Russian Federation.”

Kremlin spokesman Dmitri Peskov said the Western “threats” in question included a recent interview with French President Emmanuel Macron, published by The Economist, in which the French leader reiterated his refusal to rule out sending ground troops. to Ukraine.

Peskov also alluded to a comment made last week by David Cameron, Britain’s top diplomat, in which he said Ukraine was free to use British weapons to attack inside Russia, a departure from the typical policy of Western governments to discourage such attacks to avoid being dragged deeper into the war.

“This is a new, unprecedented escalation of tension,” Peskov told reporters on Monday. “And, of course, it requires special attention and special measures.”

The Russian Foreign Office said later in the day that it had summoned the British ambassador to present Russia’s “strong protest” over Cameron’s statement, stating that it was “de facto recognizing his country as a party to the conflict.”

“The ambassador was called to reflect on the inevitable catastrophic consequences of such hostile steps by London,” the Russian Foreign Ministry stated.

A British Foreign Office spokesman later said the ambassador met Russian officials “for a diplomatic meeting” and was not officially summoned. The spokesperson said the ambassador, Nigel Casey, “reiterated the UK’s support for Ukraine in the face of unprovoked Russian aggression”.

Russia has taken the initiative on the battlefield following a failed Ukrainian counteroffensive last year. But Moscow’s progress remains slow and bloody, and new deliveries of Western weapons are on the way, including those from a $61 billion military aid package that the United States approved last month.

Beyond dissuading the West from further involvement in Ukraine’s war effort, the Kremlin wants to exploit divisions within the NATO military alliance over the risks of doing so. That division was evident in February, when Macron first mentioned the possibility of sending Western troops to Ukraine. Peskov then said that such a move would lead to a direct confrontation with Russian forces.

The last few months have marked a hardline turn for Macron, who more than two years ago tried to prevent the invasion of Ukraine by raising the possibility of integrating Russia into a new European security architecture.

Russia’s announcement to hold tactical nuclear exercises prompted a harsh response from NATO on Monday.

“Russia’s nuclear rhetoric is dangerous and irresponsible,” said NATO spokeswoman Farah Dakhlallah. “NATO remains vigilant.”

He added: “Ukraine has the right to self-defense, which is enshrined in the United Nations Charter, and NATO allies will continue to support Ukraine. “Russia has started this illegal war and must end it.”

Pavel Podvig, a Geneva-based scholar of Russian nuclear forces, said in an interview that Russia had conducted such exercises before, although it rarely made them public. This time, however, the goal is to send a strong message, he said.

“This is a reaction to specific statements, a sign that Russia has nuclear weapons,” Podvig said in a telephone interview.

Unlike strategic nuclear weapons, which are always ready for combat, non-strategic nuclear weapons are stored in warehouses far from the bombers, missiles or ships that must transport them, Podvig explained. During the exercise, Russian army formations will likely practice how they might deploy, he said.

However, it would not make much sense to use them in the context of the war in Ukraine, Podvig added, because the absence of large-scale concentrated troop formations would limit their impact on the battlefield.

Other analysts have also questioned the military effectiveness of the use of nuclear weapons on the battlefield in Ukraine, given the dispersion of Ukrainian forces. The Institute for the Study of War said in 2022 that doing so would be “a massive gamble for limited gains” for Russia.

“This weapons system exists to send a signal,” Podvig said, adding that its main goal is to impress the opponent.

Putin has not made any public comments regarding the exercises. He is scheduled to be sworn in for his fifth term as president on Tuesday.

Western governments have already relied on China — Russia’s most important international partner — to prevent Russia’s use of nuclear weapons, as they did when German Chancellor Olaf Scholz visited Beijing in 2022, amid an earlier scare.

At the time, Xi made a public statement warning that nuclear weapons had no place in the war in Ukraine. On Monday, the issue arose once more when Xi met European leaders in Paris on his first visit to the continent in five years.

“President Xi has played an important role in mitigating Russia’s irresponsible nuclear threats,” Ursula von der Leyen, president of the executive branch of the European Union, told reporters following meeting with Xi and Macron on Monday. “I am confident that President Xi will continue to do so in the context of Russia’s continued nuclear threats.”

He also urged Beijing to “use all its influence on Russia to end its war of aggression once morest Ukraine.”


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