A budget expansion that the Executive announced that it would request from Congress two months ago, will be carried over to the beginning of the second cycle of ordinary sessions in Congress, confirmed authorities from the Treasury portfolio.
After participating in a presentation organized by the Guatemalan-American Chamber of Commerce (AmCham), the Minister of Finance, Jonathan Menkos Zeissig, stated that the request for an extension of Q14.5 billion and “regarding the times, we have discussed that probably -the request – will be delivered upon the return of Congress (in the month of June) and this will give us time to finish some elements linked to climatic phenomena that may affect development in the second half of the year.”
However, the first period of ordinary sessions in Congress ends on May 15 and the second begins on August 1, a month before the budget project for the following year is presented, an issue that normally dominates parliamentary issues until the end. of year.
Weeks following taking office as Minister of Finance, Menkos Zeissig had reported that the proposal for the request for adjustments to the current budget would be presented before February 15, but the amount had not been revealed.
The government began its administration with a budget ceiling of Q116,130.6 million, which is the same amount as 2023, and the Technical Commission on Public Finance (CTFP) reported that by 2024, the average collection scenario would be Q99,819 million. .
distribution
During the business activity, Menkos Zeissig gave some guidelines for the distribution of such resources, in case the Legislature approves it. For example, he cited that “the government’s efforts in education, health, security, as well as in matters of assistance and social security, will be supported, because we have found a gap in the Senior Citizens Program.”
He mentioned that a part will also be included to increase economic infrastructure. “In this sense, this expansion proposal aims to increase the state’s capabilities in the production of public goods and services,” he remarked.
Interpretation
This year’s revenue budget is underestimated by around Q16.5 billion as a consequence of the practice that has been followed for several years of reducing the goal of the Superintendency of Tax Administration (SAT) to give greater comfort to the tax authorities. considered Abelardo Medina Bermejo, analyst at the Central American Institute of Fiscal Studies (Icefi).
“For this reason and only for that aspect, it is now necessary to formalize the budget expansion and the change in the goals agreement for the SAT, which is in line with what is stated in the General Government Policy (PGG), given that, According to these guidelines, the collection goal should be around 12.1% of GDP, which, to date, seems difficult to achieve.”
In a complementary manner, according to Medina, the PGG also includes directing the financing of the public apparatus towards certain aspects of interest to the current authorities, which might not be executed without the budget expansion. “It is important to remember that this should not only be seen as a higher spending ceiling, but also as a reorientation of what is already allocated and that, in some cases, does not necessarily respond to the needs of the country,” she noted.
In his opinion, “not everything would necessarily have to be allocated to more spending, but that will depend on what the Executive considers it can really execute.” In any case, if you do not plan to spend everything, there might be financing to reduce the contracted debt or to increase the available cash balance.
On the other hand, he commented that, if the Executive has sufficient support from other parties, the request for a budget expansion is necessary to organize the functioning of the public apparatus, apart from placing collection expectations at an appropriate level.
However, there is concern that it will potentially be approved until the second part of the year, due to the real possibilities of execution, especially when the 2025 budget is already being formulated.
“If the necessary support is available, it must be done, but no more time should pass, because it will affect the ability to execute this year and also the expectations of income and expenses for 2025, which are obviously influenced by what can be done this year. year,” remarked the researcher.
In his opinion, if all the necessary support is not available, it is possible that it may be worth only proposing an increase due to expenditure rearrangement and the expansion of the SAT goal, leaving the rest for savings, since it would not give time to complete new runs.
And UNOPS?
The Minister of Finance also explained that a review is being carried out to make the first disbursements to the Ministry of Health, so as to expedite the purchase of priority medications to supply public hospitals through the United Nations Office for Project Services (UNOPS).
He announced that it is very likely that, at the end of this month, a first disbursement can be made and although the figures were not released, the ceiling is regarding US$900 million, so that “citizens have access to medicines nationwide.” ”.
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