According to the article, the most likely outcome among respondents is some kind of “compromise agreement”.
The survey was conducted in 12 European Union countries, including France, Germany, Hungary, Italy, the Netherlands, Poland, Spain, Sweden and the United Kingdom. The results showed that the counteroffensive in Ukraine had reached a stalemate, and growing concerns regarding changing US policy and the prospect of a second term for Donald Trump added to pessimism regarding the outcome of the war.
Only one in ten Europeans surveyed believed that Ukraine would win on the battlefield, while twice as many (20%) were inclined to believe that Russia would win. Even in the most optimistic EU member states surveyed – Poland, Sweden and Portugal – less than one in five (17%) expressed the opinion that Kyiv will win.
The survey also revealed that in all countries, the most common opinion, with an average of 37 percent, was respondents, was that the war would end in a “compromise agreement”. And some countries were more interested in that outcome than others.
In Sweden (50%), Portugal (48%) and Poland (47%), respondents were more likely to say that Europe should help Ukraine resist, while in Hungary (64%), Greece (59%), Italy (52%) .) and in Austria (49%) preferred to pressure Kyiv to accept the agreement. Opinions were more evenly split in France, Germany, the Netherlands and Spain.
The possible return of D.Trump to the White House was viewed by many as bad news: 56 percent. respondents from 12 countries surveyed said they would be disappointed if he were re-elected.
The only exception was Hungary, where 27 percent of respondents said that they would be happy with D. Trump’s return, and 31 percent would be disappointed.
If the US were to cut off military aid to Ukraine in the event of D. Trump’s presidency, 41 percent would. of Europeans said that the EU should increase support or maintain its current level, while 33% would like the EU to follow the example of the US.
“To justify continued European support for Ukraine, EU leaders will need to change the way they talk regarding the war,” said one of the report’s authors, Mark Leonard of the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR), which commissioned the survey.
As Europe and the United States enter election season, the quest for peace will become an important battleground, according to pollsters.
Another co-author of the report, Ivan Krastev, argued that Russia’s victory “is not peace”: “If Ukraine becomes a neutral zone at the price of the end of the war, it will be a defeat not only for Kyiv, but also for Europe and its security.”
Earlier, US Vice President Kamala Harris said that the United States will continue to support Ukraine and that Russia will pay for what it has done.
She noted that Ukraine achieved extraordinary results and extraordinary success in its struggle: “Our joint strength is the key to the failure of Vladimir Putin. The United States has a strategic interest in continuing to provide support.”
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2024-05-02 12:15:41