Waiting to fill the US strategic reserve drives up oil prices Economy

2024-05-02 10:37:11

Oil prices rose today Thursday, following losses that lasted 3 days, on expectations that falling price levels would prompt the United States to replenish the strategic oil reserve, thereby setting a minimum limit for price drop.

Prices fell more than 3% yesterday, Wednesday, to a 7-week low following remaining Federal Reserve Board (US Central Bank) interest rate Without change, which might slow down Economic growth This year, this limits the increase in oil demand.

Oil also faced pressure from an unexpected rise in U.S. crude inventories and indications that a ceasefire was near. Gaza strip Between Israel and the Palestinian resistance, which will allay fears regarding supplies to the Middle East.

Trading price

Brent crude futures for the nearest delivery were up 69 cents, or 0.83%, at $84.13 a barrel, at the time of reporting, and U.S. crude was up by 58 cents, or 0.73%, to $79.58 per barrel.

“The oil market has received support from speculation that if WTI falls below $79, the United States will work to refill its strategic reserves,” said Hiroyuki Kikukawa, president of NS Trading, a unit of Nissan. Securities, according to what Reuters quoted him as saying. .

The United States says it is seeking to replenish its strategic oil reserves following a historic drawdown of emergency stocks in 2022, and wants to buy back oil at a price of $79 a barrel or less.

In the Middle East, there are growing expectations that a ceasefire deal will soon be reached in the Gaza Strip following a renewed effort by Egypt.

Despite this, the Israeli Prime Minister threatens Benjamin Netanyahu Moving forward with the attack that has long threatened him Rafah city In the southern Gaza Strip, despite the US position and the UN warning that this would lead to a “tragedy”.

“With the looming impact of rising U.S. crude inventories and the Federal Reserve indicating that interest rates will remain high for a longer period of time, attention will turn to the outcome of the Gaza-related negotiations,” he said. said Vandana Hari, an oil executive. market analysis company, “Vanda Insights”.

She added: “As long as the latest wave of optimism regarding the ceasefire persists, I expect the downward trend in crude oil to continue.”

U.S. oil inventories increased by 7.3 million barrels to 460.9 million barrels (Shutterstock)

US stocks

The U.S. Energy Information Administration said crude inventories rose 7.3 million barrels to 460.9 million barrels in the week ending April 26, as analysts said expected a drop of 1.1 million barrels.

The administration said crude inventories rose to their highest levels since last June.

But the alliance continues OPEC Pluswhich includes the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies, supply reductions will support prices.

Analysts at Citi Research expect the OPEC+ alliance to maintain its production cuts in the second half of the year when it meets on June 1.

But they said in a note: “If prices move in the strong $90-$100 range or above, OPEC+ will likely reduce its cuts, leaving room to lower the oil price cap. »

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