The rainy season has already begun in the Boca Costa region of the country, while in mid-May it will do so in the Central Highlands, Eastern and Western Valleys, indicated Cleofas Josué Culajay, forecaster of the National Institute of Seismology, Volcanology, Meteorology and Hydrology ( Insivumeh).
Meanwhile, at the end of this year it is expected to begin in the Northern and Caribbean regions, he added. This might be extended to the first week of June according to the forecast for the start of the rainy season issued in April.
According to the monthly climate outlook for May 2024, the monthly precipitation forecast for this month shows slightly below normal precipitation conditions southeast of Petén and northeast of Alta Verapaz.
Meanwhile, in the south of the Pacific, southeast of Huehuetenango, Totonicapán, north of Sacatepéquez and central Chimaltenango, conditions slightly above normal might occur, while in the rest of the country conditions close to normal are expected, the report adds.
For May, the conditions of the El Niño phenomenon are present although weakening. The forecast for the quarter from May to July indicates that there is a 7% probability that La Niña conditions will occur, an 83% probability that neutral conditions will occur, and a 10% probability that La Niña conditions will occur. The boy. With this, the permanence of Neutral conditions is expected for the May-July quarter, the document adds.
Alex Guerra from the Private Institute for Research on Climate Change (ICC), explained that it must be taken into account that Guatemala is a country rich in microclimates and does not start the rainy season at the same time.
He agrees that it has already started in the Boca Costa, as well as in the Pacific such as Escuintla, Coatepeque and Malacatán, like others, because there has already been rain for almost two weeks.
In other years in that area in mid-April it normally already started but if you look at areas further towards the sea it starts regarding a month later. Meanwhile in Petén it can be delayed until June but the rainy season can last until December.
In the Northern Transversal Strip (FTN) from Izabal, Alta Verapaz, North of Quiché to North of Huehuetenango it usually rains all year round, some months more than others. Except currently, when El Niño conditions have prevailed, they are longer droughts.
It is normal for some rain to fall in the dry season, but it does not mean that winter is already established, nor is winter established with the first rains, but rather it happens later. When there are already several days of rain and it covers and exceeds the demand for water, it can already be said that it is the beginning of the rainy season, he explains.
Given the first rains that have been experienced in these weeks and regarding the crops, Guerra mentioned that they were already planted, it is beneficial because it helps to have moisture in the land following several weeks of drought. However, he recommends farmers in areas where winter has not set in to wait for a few more rains to pass so as not to risk crop damage or loss of invested costs.
Meanwhile, the president of the National Association of Basic Grains (Anagrab), Gustavo Rivas, agreed that it is recommended not to sow with the first rains.
For example, he mentioned that normal plantings on the South Coast for years have been carried out starting May 15.
Regarding basic grain agricultural areas, he said that it has already started to rain, as already mentioned in Costa Sur and also in the Ixcán (Quiché) area, Rivas added.
Temperatures
The temperature forecast for May indicates that they will continue to be high.
Average average temperatures between 26°C and 34°C will be recorded in the Pacific, Bocacosta, Caribbean, North, Eastern Valleys and northern Transversal del Norte regions. While in the Central Highlands and southern regions of FTN, average temperatures between 18°C and 30°C are expected, and in the Western region between 10°C and 26°C, adds the Insivumeh report.
Meanwhile, the forecast of average maximum temperatures indicates that the warmest regions are expected to be the Pacific, Bocacosta, North, Eastern Valleys, Caribbean and northern Transversal Strip of the North where maximum temperatures range between 30°C and 40°C. on average.
In the Central Altiplano region the expected maximum temperatures are between 22°C and 34°C, while in the Western region the maximum temperatures would be between 18°C and 30°C.
Recommendations for farmers
The Ministry of Agriculture (Maga) issues several recommendations for farmers in its climate outlook bulletin.
In the case of the high temperatures mentions:
- Increase the frequency and amount of watering. Provide shade to heat-sensitive crops through the use of netting.
- Carry out field work in the early morning or late followingnoon, avoiding work under the intense midday sun.
- Keep livestock under shade on days with excess heat.
- Provide clean and additional drinkers for animal hydration. Maintain adequate ventilation in the pens to avoid suffocation.
To avoid problems in rainy season, including severe events, indicates:
- Constantly clean drains and ditches to avoid waterlogging in the soil, especially in regions with higher rainfall accumulations.
- Perform proper maintenance on rainwater reservoir tanks. (try not to use metal material that can cause corrosion over time).
- Take advantage of the benevolent days with the presence of rain to carry out water harvesting techniques and thus be used in the season with water deficit.
- Move the animals to safe places (high areas, not prone to flooding and safe for adult animals or babies), guaranteeing animal well-being.
- Establish prevention and treatment plans for diseases generated by excess humidity such as fungal processes, diarrhea, parasites, foot, skin or respiratory conditions, among others.
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