The Compass Institute April 17–19. between, using the CATI method, with the participation of 1,073 people pollt. Based on this, the order of strength for sure voters who can choose a party is as follows:
- Fidesz–KDNP – 50 percent
- Tisza Party – 26 percent
- DK–MSZP–Dialogue – 10 percent
- Two-Tailed Dog Party – 4 percent
- Our Country Movement – 3 percent
- Momentum – 3 percent
- During the Second Reform – 2 percent
- Jobbik – Conservatives – 1 percent
The “other parties (LMP, MMN, People’s Party, etc.)” category is 1 percent. In the total population, Fidesz stands at 27 percent, the Tisza Party at 13 percent, and the DK–MSZP–Párbeszéd at 5 percent. The proportion of those who refuse to answer is 7 percent, and the “uncertain/certainly would not vote” category is 37 percent.
In order to obtain the most accurate data possible, two surveys were conducted one week apart (between April 9–12 and April 17–19), based on which the following conclusions were reached:
- The advantage of Fidesz-KDNP decreased somewhat among sure voters who might choose a party, but this decrease is within the margin of error, half of the votes in the EP elections would still go to the government parties.
- Over the course of a week, the Tisza Party gained 6 percentage points among sure voters, from 20 to 26 percent.
- The DK–MSZP–Párbeszéd party alliance strengthened from 9 to 10 percent within the margin of error.
- Our Country decreased from 6 percent to 3 percent.
- The Kutya Párt is stagnating at the level of 4 percent, just below the entrance threshold.
- Momentum stands at 3 percent among sure voters who can choose a party.
Who supports Péter Magyar?
In the research, they also looked for an answer to who supports Péter Magyar, and here are some of their conclusions:
- Looking at the data of the entire population, the Tisza Party stands out among young people (18 percent), but it is balanced in the other four age groups (11-13 percent). For those who can choose a party, the dispersion of the data is even greater: it gradually decreases from 43 percent of 18-29-year-old voters to 16-17 percent of voters of retirement age.
- Along with the increase in education, the support of the Tisza Party increases significantly; among the 8 general population, it is only 5-6 percent of the total population, but among graduates it is already 18 percent, which, when translated into the proportion of those who can choose, means an increase from 11 percent to 30 percent.
- In Budapest and cities with county status, 16 percent of the total population, 12 percent in cities, and 9 percent in villages. As for those who can choose a party, one extreme is 27-28 percent of the big cities, and the other is 19-20 percent of the villages.
- Half of the current voters of the Tisza Party (53 percent) were voters of the opposition alliance, 13-14 percent voted for Fidesz, 3 and 4 percent respectively for Mi Hazánk and Kétfarkú Kutya Párt, 14 percent did not vote, and 7 percent did not remember who , or whether you voted; another 5 percent did not reveal their vote in the previous parliamentary election.
The numbers of Závecz Research show otherwise
Závecz Research April 4–11, 2024. In his research between
- Fidesz–KDNP – 33 percent
- DK–MSZP–Dialogue – 26 percent
- Tisza Party – 14 percent
- Our country – 8 percent
- Momentum – 7 percent
- Hungarian Two-Tailed Dog Party – 5 percent
- LMP – 3 percent
- Jobbik – 1 percent
The “other list” category received 3 percent. You can read political scientist Gábor Török’s commentary on the data here.
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