As a result of the change of Government, issues of social interest led the conversation of Guatemalans on social networks and on the web, leaving aside the messages in defense of democracy and those related to electoral fraud and coup d’état that rebounded before to the inauguration of Bernardo Arévalo and Karin Herrera as president and vice president of the country, respectively.
The analysis of social listening carried out on Facebook, Instagram, Twitter, Tik Tok, YouTube and search engines by the company Digital Interaction through the Goo tool, between January 15 and April 16, shows data on what was He speaks in Guatemala regarding the rulers, the 100 days of Government and the Semilla Movement.
Last August 3, Arévalo and Herrera presented their Plan for the 100 days of assuming the presidency, and based on those first government actions, the topics that would be tracked in digital spaces for this analysis were listed.
11 topics were monitored and the mentions that arose around them, which totaled 75,689.
Of this universe, 44.40% of mentions regarding corruption and transparency are related to putting a stop to the corrupt practices of previous governments and denouncing those involved in events of this type. This section also mentions the Attorney General, Consuelo Porras, the Public Ministry and the election of the National Commissioner once morest Corruption, Santiago Palomo.
Security and Justice becomes the second most talked regarding topic, with 13.6% of mentions. The population has the perception of the increase in insecurity and crime in public spaces, and they express the urgency of implementing measures to reduce extortion and theft.
The other topic of interest is Health, which occupies 11.5% of the mentions. Users talk regarding the importance of having an efficient public health system, the abandonment and shortage of supplies in hospitals, and the difficulty of accessing state services. There are requests related to improving care, as well as conversations regarding the recently approved Comprehensive Cancer Care Law.
A smaller volume of conversations was generated around the topics of education, social inclusion, migration, environment, economic development, basic basket, citizen participation and innovation and technology, according to social listening.
Corruption and transparency
“Urgently save Guatemala from corruption,” that was the first action that Bernardo Arévalo said he would take in the first three months of his government.
“Karin Herrera and Bernardo Arévalo assume the responsibility of leading the fight once morest corruption by example,” he mentioned in the speech presenting the 100 Day Plan last August, and to do so they would denounce the corrupt before the corresponding authorities, appoint in public positions to honest and capable people, they would create a code of ethics and transparency for the public service, and they would comply with the law on access to public information to make spending transparent.
During the time that Arévalo and Herrera are in power, in terms of corruption and transparency in the country, ghost positions have come to light in public institutions related to the previous government, the designation of officials on the Engel List and sanctioned under the Magnisky Law of the United States and the complaint for the purchase of Sptunik V vaccines.
In this context, in the opinion of Jahir Dabroy, analyst at the Association for Research and Social Studies (Asies), 100 days is a short time to evaluate a government, and at least a period of six months should be considered.
It indicates that Arévalo and Herrera came to the Executive supported by the popular rejection of the corrupt and positioned themselves as a political option different from the traditional class, and that has been the main point of government action, since it is “more practical” to carry out a review in ministries and secretariats of the use of public resources, and then report cases of corruption.
The creation of the National Commission once morest Corruption stands out during this period of government, but we must wait for the results.
Although the fight once morest corruption has been Arévalo’s main letter of introduction, the analyst mentions that this speech can “tire” the population that expects solutions to daily needs, such as insecurity, access to health and education. , for example, however, it must be clear that these structural problems cannot be resolved in three months.
“It is required that they articulate the pieces very well to be able to deliver results, and that will be the point where the Guatemalan will say: ‘it is good that they present cases, but I also need them to solve my day to day life,’” says Dabroy.
That will be the challenge, he adds, because the time will come when the fight once morest corruption will not be enough to satisfy citizen demand.
Dabroy mentions as mistakes in these 100 days of Government that there is no approved management in the speeches of Arévalo and Herrera. “It is not that they are going in different directions, but it is perceived that they have different ways of approaching issues. “Vice President Herrera is more active and reactive than President Arévalo, who thinks a little more regarding actions,” she points out, which was evident in the dismissal of the Minister of the Environment, María José Iturbide.
“They are very concerned regarding what is discussed on Twitter, more than what Guatemalans experience every day. That may be a point to improve,” he adds.
Security and justice
Walter Menchú, CIEN analyst, mentions that the Executive is concerned with matters related to security, while the judicial area corresponds to a separate power.
Based on this, one of the axes that Arévalo presented within the 100-day Plan was to stop crime, a problem that he pointed out has not been of interest to those who have governed Guatemala.
“The lack of an adequate approach to citizen security has caused the population to distrust the security forces, which are responsible for protecting us,” he said in his speech.
While, as measures to stop the scourge, he offered to combat extortion from prisons, control crime by acting preventively, increase the presence of the National Civil Police in the areas most affected by violence and dignify the police.
What the population has perceived in recent months is that homicidal violence increased, despite the fact that the figures say the opposite, since in the first quarter of the year it decreased by 13% compared to the same period in 2023. Extortions related to Gangs, like assaults carried out by motorists, also generate insecurity in the population. While the authorities carry out searches in prisons and security forces patrol the streets to prevent robberies.
Walter Menchú, CIEN analyst, mentions as a success of the Arévalo government in terms of security that from the beginning it was clear regarding the challenges to be faced, and based on this, actions have been implemented to resolve the problem.
He sees the searches in prisons as positive, as well as keeping some inmates separated from the rest due to their criminal profile, but it is necessary to isolate extortionists with maximum security measures so that they stop operating from detention centers.
He adds that at the beginning of this Administration, blocking the telephone signal in prisons and meetings with telephone companies to coordinate it were proposed, but there is no progress on the issue.
On the other hand, an inter-institutional force was announced to improve prison entry controls, but the mistake for Menchú is to have limited the action with random visits and not leaving it permanently in the centers that present the greatest challenges.
With respect to converting the motorized patrols of the LOBOS Immediate Reaction Group to a new force focused on extortion, although it is an action in the right direction, it is not enough to stop the extortionists, since “more than one job of criminal investigation that provides something of a deterrent.” In his opinion, the strategy would be more appropriate when combating robberies, assaults or public disorder.
Menchú indicates that intelligence work has served to improve the seizure of illicit drugs, since in the first quarter 3,981 kilos of cocaine were seized more than in the same period of 2023. However, the same results are not seen in the strengthening criminal investigation, for which the joint work of the investigation teams of the Ministry of the Interior and the Public Ministry is necessary.
“Raids have continued in which people are captured to link them to various crimes, as part of the investigative work, but the problem of extortion has not been controlled,” says the analyst.
It stands out that in the first quarter of this year homicidal violence has reduced in the country.
Health
The lack of medicines in public hospitals has been one of the challenges that Bernardo Arévalo’s government has had to face since the first days.
A million-dollar debt owed to suppliers has limited the acquisition of the most essential supplies to serve Guatemalans. The new administration received 19 hospitals with low availability of products, but it was General San Juan de Dios that suffered one of the worst shortage crises, to the point that it was necessary to transfer patients to other healthcare centers, and suspend operations. scheduled surgeries without anesthesia.
The payment of the debt to suppliers, which amounted to Q733 million, has been taking place, which has improved the delivery of medicines, but maintaining continuous supply is the demand of doctors to be able to work and provide good service to the population. .
The Guillain-Barré outbreak that occurred since the beginning of 2024 also put the new health authorities in trouble, who faced the emergency with services that did not have treatment for the disease.
Teams with epidemiologists, infectologists and other specialists were established to investigate the sudden appearance of cases. According to the authorities of the Ministry of Health, the outbreak is already under control – there are 87 cases and five deaths – and the results of the studies carried out to determine its origin are awaited.
The million-dollar expenditure through low-value purchases from questioned suppliers to acquire furniture, medical equipment, supplies and carry out renovations are actions that have weakened the budgets of hospitals and health centers, they are problems that the current administration inherited and that has led to to the dismissal of directors and personnel involved in these awards.
In this context, the first 100 days of the Arévalo Government have been developed in the health area, in which an agreement for US$900 million has also been announced with the United Nations Office for Project Services (Unops) for the purchase of medicine, a measure that he presented since the electoral campaign as part of his work plan to supply health services and public pharmacies with medicines at prices accessible to the population.
In the opinion of the doctor José Luis Ranero, former president of the College of Physicians and Surgeons of Guatemala, the evaluation of health policies is a multidisciplinary process that involves political, economic, social, educational and environmental determinants, so any decision making on issues health is difficult to evaluate in a short period, such as 100 days of government.
However, it highlights proposals to improve timely access to medical care, primarily in areas that have historically been underserved. In addition, prioritizing primary health care over the creation of specialized hospital units, which consume a larger budget and have low social coverage.
It highlights increasing the number of people who contribute to social security, but increasing human resources and infrastructure to ensure dignified care in a decent work environment.
“Given the national situation, we must work to build consensus and ensure political negotiation to move forward,” says Ranero.
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