WHEN Russian troops were deployed to Nagorno-Karabakh four years ago, their task was clear: keep the peace between arch-rivals Armenia and Azerbaijan and prevent another war in the conflict-prone region.
However, when Azerbaijani forces invaded hilly Karabakh last September and crushed Armenian separatist forces in a matter of hours, Russia’s mission appeared to have failed.
This week, the Kremlin quietly confirmed the withdrawal of peacekeepers, taking with them their weapons and equipment and Russian influence from a region long considered its backyard.
“We are witnessing a historic process — Russia is the first to leave (the region) in the last two centuries,” independent Azerbaijani analyst Elhan Shahinoglu told AFP.
Moscow ruled the Caucasus region during the Russian empire and later the Soviet era. When war broke out between Armenia and Azerbaijan following the collapse of the Soviet Union, Moscow attempted to mediate.
The Kremlin deployed nearly 2,000 troops in 2020 as part of a ceasefire deal that halted six weeks of brutal fighting between the two arch rivals over the Karabakh region.
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The deal lasted until Azerbaijan’s blitzkrieg in September sparked an exodus of more than 100,000 Armenians from Karabakh and deepened their frustration with Moscow.
Russia Has Betrayed Us
“As Russia leaves Karabakh, the last hope of the population returning home has disappeared,” said Iveta Margaryan, a 53-year-old accountant in the Armenian capital.
“Russia has betrayed us,” he added.
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Caucasus observers say Russia was too involved with the invasion of Ukraine to maintain its influence in the region.
Azerbaijan has recently deepened its ties with Türkiye — a close military and political partner with shared cultural ties. And with the withdrawal of troops from Karabakh, Moscow is further distancing Armenia.
Yerevan has criticized Moscow’s perceived shortcomings, with Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan busy forging closer ties with the West.
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In February, he froze Yerevan’s participation in the Moscow-led Joint Security Treaty Organization, a defense grouping of several former Soviet states.
Yerevan also joined the International Criminal Court (PPI) once morest Moscow’s wishes — a move that would require Armenia to arrest Vladimir Putin if he visits Armenia.
The European Union and the United States are now leading efforts to formulate a peace agreement between the Caucasus arch-rivals, with Moscow stuck playing a supporting role.
Myths Busted
Moscow’s discomfort over Armenia’s approach to the West has also become public. The Foreign Ministry this week demanded that Yerevan “deny” reports that it was deepening military ties with Western countries.
France — home to a large Armenian diaspora — has also planted a flag in the region, beefed up its diplomatic support for Yerevan and provided advanced defensive radar and missiles.
“Russia is out, the West is in,” said Azerbaijani political expert Eldar Namazov.
Russian peacekeepers are meant to “exercise influence,” said Gela Vasadze, a fellow at the Georgian Center for Strategic Analysis.
But their withdrawal clearly illustrated the limits of Russia’s power, he told AFP.
“The myth that Russian troops never left the territory they once came to has been shattered.”
Shahinoglu said Putin had withdrawn from Karabakh to maintain good relations with Azerbaijan and Turkey at a time when the Kremlin was isolated because of the war in Ukraine.
But in doing so, Russia has lost its ability to “unearth” Armenian separatism in the Caucasus and exploit it for regional influence, he said.
“Russia has lost its historical foothold in the Caucasus forever.”
That sentiment was also reflected in Azerbaijan, where the announcement of Russia’s withdrawal was greeted with joy and relief.
“People say Russian troops never voluntarily left,” said Ramil Iskenderov, a 37-year-old courier.
“Azerbaijan proved that with the right policies, the impossible can be achieved,” he told AFP.
In Armenia, where Russia still has military bases, the withdrawal of peacekeepers is the final point for some that means Yerevan will have to cut military ties with Moscow.
“Russia has once once more betrayed the Armenian people and sold us out. That’s all,” said Valery Harutyunyan, who lived in Karabakh before fleeing to Armenia in September.
“We can no longer depend on Russia. It’s impossible. We have to expel Russia — not only from Karabakh — but also from Armenia,” he told AFP. (AFP/Z-3)
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