Thursday’s vote in the Chamber effectively concludes the parliamentary examination of the fourth Pnrr decree, which now only awaits ratification in the Senate because as usual there is no time for other changes in the second step. And with its innovations (for further information see page 35) the race for the implementation of the remodulated Plan officially opens: a crucial race for the fate of Italian growth, and for the public finance balances that hang on it, at least according to what the official calculations in the Def tables say.
In government estimates, the Pnrr has once once more become worth an additional growth of 3.4% to 2026, rising by three decimals compared to the +3.1% indicated in the autumn in the last budget program thanks to the revision agreed with the EU. In comparison with the original version, the Def reiterates in section III on the National Reform Programme, the new Plan highlights “greater net resources allocated” and above all shows an “increase in additional projects” for 12.3 billion euros. Projects which, together with the expected increase in actual spending, absorb fiscal space for other measures, giving some additional arguments in support of the extension hypotheses; but which from the point of view of the real economy appear essential.
In fact, the most important news is found precisely on this side, and comes from the intersection between the impact on GDP attributed to the implementation of the Pnrr and the overall prospects of the Italian economy. For this year the Def forecasts growth of 1%, and assigns a boost of 0.9% to the Pnrr. In practice therefore, by combining the two hypotheses, 90% of this year’s growth would depend on the Plan.
Such a figure marks a clear discontinuity compared to the past, and here too an important weight is given by the rethinking of the program. Because the new Pnrr inevitably takes into account the slowdowns accumulated so far, in the path of actual spending rather than in that linked to the achievement of objectives. And financial realization is the most direct driver for growth.
On this ground, ongoing monitoring has so far produced much more modest numbers than those initially hypothesized. The Government’s latest report indicates the total cumulative Pnrr expenditure at the end of 2023 at 42.9 billion, a value that is decidedly lower than the 61.4 billion assumed for the same period by the NaDef 2022. Also weighing on the figure is the fact that many subjects actuators have not punctually populated the ReGis, the Mef’s telematic platform called to survey every step of the plan, to the point that the Pnrr-4 decree itself tries to tighten the bolts of the mechanism. In any case, even if some observers hypothesize a real spending level already around 50 billion, the pace followed so far is lower than initial estimates. And now it’s time to accelerate.
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2024-04-21 18:06:34
