2024-04-18 15:11:54
This article is compiled from Call him Butter, because Craig Kimbrel is on a roll
For four years, Craig Kimbrel was the best reliever in all of baseball. There was no doubt that no one might even compare to him. Between 2011 and 2014, he only had a 1.51 ERA and a 1.52 FIP (pitcher-independent ERA). Has a 42% strikeout rate, a .269 BABIP (batting average) and is rarely hit. He averaged just 65 fewer innings per year and made 185 saves. Once Atlanta takes the lead in the ninth inning, the game is essentially over.
For the next four years, Kimbrel was simply an “excellent” relief pitcher. With a 2.47 ERA, 2.49 FIP, and 41% strikeout rate, he began walking more batters and was more likely to hit home runs. When Kimbrel turned 30 in 2018, his prospects looked increasingly bleak. Because of the qualifying offer, many of its competitors were deterred. He didn’t sign with the Cubs until June of the same year, and his performance fell straight into the abyss. In 2019 and 2020, he posted a 6.00 ERA, a 6.29 FIP, a miserable 14.6% walk rate and allowed as many as 2.75 home runs per nine innings.
You more or less know how the next story will play out. It is a sign that the era of its domination has passed. Even though over the next three years he will occasionally show off his best skills in the past, he will be A. decent pitcher at best, not the dominant force he was.
I’ve always wanted to look back at Craig Kimbrel’s career at its peak, his incredible strikeout rate and ERA were unparalleled in the entire league. Even Mariano Rivera, who had a longer and more legendary career, didn’t have as dominant a four-year stretch as Kimbrel. I can’t remember who came up with it, but Kimbrel’s performance even led to the creation of a useless stat: “A Kimbrel unit” means a pitcher has a negative FIP in a single game. That’s what he did best, which required at least two strikeouts, no walks and no home runs in an inning. At his best, when he played, it was almost a foregone conclusion.
I’ve been waiting to write a review on him for a while, as Kimbrel has always been a productive reliever, but he hasn’t been top-notch in a while. He got off to a good start in 2021, but went from bad to worse as the season went on. He’s been one of several relief pitchers for the Dodgers and Phillies over the past two years, and has also served as a closer, but his status isn’t unshakeable. Last year’s playoffs,His performance is completely untrustworthywhich makes you think that “he’s not far from retirement”, right?
Maybe I’m being too harsh, but Kimbrel has only pitched seven innings this year, but his performance has been pretty impressive. He struck out 13 of the 24 batters he faced, with no walks and allowed only three singles. The “one Kimbrel unit” I just talked regarding, its FIP this season is exactly negative.
Obviously, he mightn’t continue such a dominant performance throughout the season. But even though it’s a small sample size, it’s worth taking a closer look at the adjustments he’s made in Baltimore. Maybe the Orioles found the instruction manual, maybe it was the new environment, or maybe it was just hot. Either way, I still want to find the answer, because this unexpected resurrection completely shattered his imagination of a career that was initially expected to go downhill.
First, the confusing measurements:
That’s right, Kimbrel’s miss rate this season is at a career low. Who is the culprit? His curveball. The strikeout rate on this ball has dropped to ridiculous levels.
It’s his signature ball, the decisive weapon following two strikes that made him invincible at his peak. Now it doesn’t look as sharp as before, hitters won’t chase the ball, and it’s easier to hit the ball. Combining the two points above, this changeup ball has a strike rate similar to that of a sinker. Did the hitters crack Kimbrel?
Apparently not, remember that article was regarding Kimbrel publishing a negative FIP? Here’s a clip of Rowdy Tellez twice watching an 83-mile curveball hit the bases, only to then drop it:
This ball meant that Sal Frelick might only slowly return to the dugout:
Kimbrel recovered the ball with this ball:
I don’t think this payout ratio can continue. Batters hit this curveball three times, and two of them had a muzzle velocity of over 100 miles. Unfortunately, they both hit ground balls. But they really didn’t strike out many batters, and the strikes they gave him made Kimbrel’s strikeout rate this season near a career high, second only to 2020, but his walk rate this year -there was 17.4%. strikes ruled by umpires were caused by the batter actively waiting for a pitch while the pitcher was late, hoping that Kimbrel would beat him on his own. This season it started to get into an unfavorable situation.
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