The War of Attrition in South Lebanon: Israel’s Strategy and Hezbollah’s Response

2024-04-18 23:58:29

Usually a war of attrition is followed by a major military battle. Attrition then becomes, in the eyes of any military force, the opportunity to exhaust the other party, to disperse its efforts and to gradually strike its structure in a sort of slow death. What is happening in South Lebanon is exactly the opposite. For six months, Israel has been waging a war of attrition with Hezbollah, awaiting the start of a major battle that may not occur despite threats that sometimes increase in frequency and decrease at other times, as is the case today in light of new threats. threats of a major strike. Ahead of the Iranian response to Israel’s targeting of the Iranian consulate in Damascus, attention turned to knowing the arena from which Iran would respond and whether Lebanon would have a part in the response through Hezbollah . Consequently, the possibilities of an Israeli reaction would have been justified. However, bombing from inside Iran has not reduced these possibilities, as Israel has made clear in its messages to Washington and Arab countries that what is happening between it and Iran has no connection with what is happening between him and Hezbollah. This does not so much mean a disengagement between the two sides as it means that Israel continues on the path it has been trying to stabilize since October 7, following Hezbollah entered the open war in Gaza. The responses that have taken place between Israel and Iran have raised the alert level in the region and created a worrying atmosphere throughout Europe and the Arab world, have not denied the fact that there is still a another aspect of the conflict in southern Lebanon and that Israel has not given up studying the possibilities that tip the scales in its favor.
As Israeli threats have continued at their current pace over the past few months, Israel has shown that it is determined to treat the southern region as an open, continuous and daily, and that he thinks directly regarding his immediate interests. , because the party’s presence represents a continued threat to him. While the direct battle with Iran has completely different circumstances and circumstances. Although talk of an Israeli threat to Hezbollah and Lebanon has recently taken on a sharp tone with planned dates, there are reports of another trend based on a fundamental question: what harm would Israel do by continuing the war attrition for as long as possible instead of entering into open war?
What the reports say is that Israel is now considering the option of a war of attrition, without withdrawing the card from the major battle. Thus, it takes advantage of the facts of attrition with Lebanon as a whole, and with Hezbollah, by directing the battle more and more towards the Lebanese interior. For six months, Lebanon has lived to the rhythm of hesitations, questions and warlike fears, that even airline reports create confusions which add to those existing. For six months, Lebanon has been hanging on the waiting ropes, without official exams, without municipal elections, and without real activation of the internal situation unless it is built on the basis of what is happening in the south, in addition to economic and commercial realities, such as stocks of oil, wheat, foodstuffs and medicines, which are now linked to the threats of war occurring between… One day and the next. These internal hesitations intensify with each wave of fears and threats that the Lebanese consider as pivotal dates between successive security and political events.

Attrition might increase by directing the battle towards the interior of Lebanon

Politically, the deterioration has further deepened between Hezbollah and political forces, including its allies, and reflects disagreements, divisions and sharp reactions to the party’s intervention in the war, which has reinforced the image of a complete collapse of the Lebanese scene, which relieves Israel, in the face of a country disintegrated to the point that the calendar no longer leaves room for the escalation of security and political events.
Regardless of any talk of the party’s deterrent power causing Israel to hesitate in its threatened battle, there is one aspect that is pushing Israel to increase the intensity of military pressure in its war of attrition with the party through assassinations. daily, liquidations. , battles and systematic destruction, which constitute a realistic weight on the party. This is what he is trying to prolong for the coming months, so it will not end, neither with the Gaza and Rafah negotiations and the release of the hostages, nor with the dates set for the American elections and the transformations that accompany them, nor with the dates set for the American elections and the transformations that accompany them. include it in international negotiations and interventions to end any major war it wages once morest Lebanon. This presents an opportunity for Israel to wear down the other party, not only as a partisan party, but also as a country, without making assumptions regarding the importance of keeping its northern regions devoid of their population. This is a detail from his dictionary, which he promotes daily, regarding the services he provides to those who insist on driving Hezbollah from their northern borders. Therefore, the threat ceiling is said to be still raised, as Israel is currently working to increase the pace of military pressure. But the war may not produce the results expected so far in Lebanon.

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