2024-04-18 22:38:42
For months now, NASA’s most important planetary mission has been in jeopardy. We are talking regarding the MSR program (March sample return), which at the beginning of the next decade would bring to Earth up to thirty sample tubes from Mars collected by the Perseverance rover. NASA has paralyzed the development of the mission in response to the increasing cost of the program, which, instead of the planned 5 billion dollars, was on track to cost between 8 and 11 billion. In September 2023, the second panel of independent experts dedicated to analyzing the project, MSR IRB-2 (Second March Sample Return Independent Review Board), published the results, and concluded that the assignment might not be carried out within the planned budgets and deadlines.
In the wake of that report, which caused the de facto shutdown of MSR, NASA created another response committee to offer alternatives to this quagmire, called MIRT (MSR IRB Response Team). On 15 April 2024, MIRT published its conclusions, which no one liked. Because? Well, because following confirming that Perseverance trials cannot be brought for less than $8 or $11 billion, the committee concludes that it is best to separate the missions that make up the MSR program to reduce annual costs and give them time to to mature. new technology. As a result, the samples would not reach Earth until 2040.
MSR Elements (NASA).
According to MIRT, the European probe ERO (Earth Return Orbiter), responsible for bringing the samples from Mars, would take off in 2030, while the NASA SRL probe (Sample Retrieval Lander) would do so in 2035. The SRL probe carries the MAV rocket (Mars Ascent Vehicle) that will place Perseverance samples into Mars orbit, where they will be collected by ERO for return to Earth in 2040. The committee believes that elements of the SRL might be refined with additional time, such as adding radioisotope generators (RTGs) to simplify its mass and design, at the expense of a higher final price. For NASA headquarters, this option is unacceptable, and they have chosen to keep the MSR in a state of social uncertainty. Right now the project is alive and dead at the same time. I live because it is maintained on a minimum budget, insufficient to build vehicles but enough to keep the most important associated personnel working. And died because without more funds the mission will never launch.
The MIRT committee’s proposal to implement the MSR (NASA).
Original MSR architecture, with launch of SRL in 2028 and ERO in 2027. The probes were to reach Earth in 2033 (NASA).
After rejecting those MIRT recommendations, NASA launched requests for proposals on April 16 for new mission designs that might bring samples back faster and at a lower cost. While we waited for these proposals to arrive, the MSR mission as we knew it has passed away. MIRT itself proposes some solutions so that the pieces of Mars arrive earlier, such as simplifying or reducing the size of the MAV rocket and the OS sample container. As the design has evolved, the MAV rocket has become heavier, forcing the European SFR rover to give up (Example of Fetch Rover) to facilitate the SRL probe. The OS container, designed with very strict criteria to avoid any kind of biological contamination, and its capture system, have also increased costs dramatically. The easiest thing would therefore be to reduce the size of the MAV and the OS container, but that can only be done by reducing the number of Perseverance samples.
Tour of Perseverance in Jezero Crater (NASA).
That is why NASA is open to mission proposals that provide a minimum of ten test tubes instead of the planned thirty. The bad thing is that this decision will have a huge impact on the scientific potential of the mission, and it is not clear that the price will be significantly reduced. Regardless, NASA plans to close the deadline for submitting proposals on May 17 and will announce next October several contracts of up to $1.5 million to mature the most promising mission architectures. Since NASA hasn’t completely abandoned the original architecture of the program either – that would have been to leave ESA in the lurch (although they’re used to it and it wouldn’t be the first time) – NASA’s solution seems more like an attempt to fly forwards. That is, freeze the MSR while you wait for funding to improve or for the political climate to change enough to make it acceptable to cancel the program.
Final design of the SRL probe (NASA).
Current MAV rocket design (NASA).
The latter is very complicated because let’s not forget that bringing samples from Mars is the second space race currently facing China and the US (the first is between NASA’s Artemis program and the Chinese manned lunar program to see who first puts a human on). the moon in the 21st century). China will in 2030 – also two years later than initially planned – launch two probes that make up the Tianwen 3 mission with two CZ-5 rockets. One of the probes, corresponding to SRL, will land on Mars and will be equipped with an MAV. The other will bring the samples to Earth. The Tianwen 3 mission is simpler than the MSR, therefore no one doubts that China might become the first country to bring back samples from another planet, ahead of the United States. But even if from a scientific point of view it is not so impressive – the MSR will bring samples carefully selected by Perseverance instruments – we should not underestimate the yield in science.
Chinese Tianwen 3 Mars Sample Return Mission (CNSA).
The Tianwen 3 lander will carry a deep-sea test well (CNSA).
First, because any sample from Mars can provide a lot of interesting data – direct dating of rocks, exact isotopic composition, etc. –. Second, because the Tianwen 3 lander will include a robot or helicopter to bring rocks from the surface, so it will have a certain sample selection ability. Thirdly because, in addition to a robotic arm for regolith and surface rocks, it will also carry a drill capable of collecting samples at depths of more than one meter. Let’s not forget that Perseverance is only capable of collecting surface samples, but many scientists are eager to analyze the subsurface at greater depth, where organic matter is much better protected from the effects of solar wind radiation and cosmic rays. Regardless, China, which started at a clear disadvantage in this race, has now passed its rival. However, NASA can sell a possible cancellation of the MSR as needed considering that around 2040 is the next goal to put a human on Mars. The problem with this line of reasoning is twofold. On the one hand, a manned trip to Mars is still a long way off, and on the other, there is nothing to prevent China from also joining this other race.
References:
- https://science.nasa.gov/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/mirt-04152024-updated-signed.pdf
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