Donald Trump has faced multiple indictments throughout his career, requiring us to distinguish between the different cases. One such case is the “classified documents” case, while another involves alleged election subversion on both federal and Georgia levels. Additionally, there is the Manhattan “hush money” case, which will soon go to trial unless Trump successfully delays it.
However, a recent letter from Judge Juan Merchan suggests that the “hush money” case may be more accurately described as a third election interference case. According to Merchan, the allegations state that Trump falsified business records to hide an agreement to unlawfully influence the 2016 presidential election.
Looking beyond the salacious details of Trump’s alleged affair with Stormy Daniels and the hush money payments, we must consider the broader implications of this alleged crime. It raises questions regarding how it may have impacted the outcome of such a closely contested election.
Trump’s victory in key states was by extremely narrow margins. For example, he won Michigan by 0.2 percent, Pennsylvania by 0.7 percent, and Wisconsin by 0.8 percent. A shift of just 78,000 votes in those states or a one-point swing towards Hillary Clinton would have prevented Trump from becoming president.
Furthermore, exit polls revealed that late-deciding voters overwhelmingly broke in Trump’s favor. In Michigan, they favored Trump by 11 points, in Pennsylvania by 17 points, and in Wisconsin by 29 points. These late-deciding voters played a crucial role in securing Trump’s victory.
While it is impossible to determine the precise impact of the alleged affair with a porn star on the election, it is worth considering the potential effects. Voters had already learned regarding the infamous “Access Hollywood” tape, in which Trump made derogatory comments regarding women, yet they still elected him.
A 2020 study found that individuals exposed to the tape demonstrated two points less support for Trump. Therefore, it is plausible that further allegations, such as the affair with Stormy Daniels, may have had some influence on certain voters.
However, it is vital to recognize that controversies surrounding Trump did not necessarily result in his defeat. Trump may have reached a breaking point of controversies that was enough to concern some voters but not significant enough to lose the election.
As the alleged affair with Stormy Daniels was not publicly disclosed without a payoff, and considering Trump’s ability to weather previous allegations, it is uncertain how much impact it would have had on voter decisions. It may have been viewed as a last-minute dirty trick or simply chalked up to Trump’s character.
Regardless, Trump and his lawyer, Michael Cohen, saw value in covering up the affair. Whether legally or illegally, they prevented us from witnessing how this potential scandal might have affected the election outcome.
As Trump faces legal consequences for these actions, it is essential to acknowledge that the “hush money” and “falsifying business records” descriptions do not fully capture the broader significance of this alleged crime for both
