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President Joe Biden will warn China regarding its increasingly aggressive activity in the South China Sea this week during summits with Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida and Philippines President Ferdinand Marcos Jr.
Two senior US officials said Biden would express serious concern regarding the situation around the Second Thomas Shoal, a submerged reef in the Spratly Islands where the Chinese coast guard has used water cannons to prevent the Philippines from resupplying marines on the Sierra Madre, a rusting ship that has been lodged on the reef for 25 years.
Biden will stress that the US-Philippines Mutual Defense Treaty applies to the Sierra Madre, said the officials, adding that he expressed “deep concern” when he spoke to President Xi Jinping on Monday.
“China is underestimating the potential for escalation. We’ve tried to make that clear in a series of conversations . . . that our mutual defence treaty covers Philippine sailors and ships and by extension . . . the Sierra Madre,” one official told the Financial Times.
“China needs to examine its tactics or risk some serious blowback.”
Admiral John Aquilino, head of US Indo-Pacific command, recently issued a similar warning to a delegation of retired Chinese military officers and Cui Tiankai, China’s former ambassador to the US, according to people familiar with the situation. Indo-Pacom did not comment. The Biden administration has also enlisted other retired US officials to deliver similar private messages to Beijing.
The officials said the US was wary of establishing a “red line” with Beijing. “If you give the Chinese a red line, they will go just short of that and do everything but,” said one official.
The second official said China may think its actions fall below the threshold of the US commitments under the mutual defence treaty.
“The reality of their rules of engagement and the way that responsibility evolves may mean that ultimately they don’t have perfect control over that fact,” the official said. “We would not want to create an artificially clean distinction when they themselves are not fully able to control their own actions.”
Bonnie Glaser, a China expert at the German Marshall Fund, said the “greatest risk of a direct US-China military confrontation today is at Second Thomas Shoal”.
“If Beijing directly attacks Philippine ships or armed forces, Washington would be compelled to respond,” she said. “A major political crisis between the US and China would ensue, and, at worst, a wider military conflict.”
Jose Manuel Romualdez, Philippine ambassador to the US, said the two allies hoped that the treaty would never have to be invoked, but warned, “we will not hesitate to do so” if warranted.
The Second Thomas Shoal is one of many contested features in the Spratly Islands in the South China Sea. The Philippines grounded the Sierra Madre on the reef in 1999 as part of its effort to reinforce its claims to the feature. The Philippines military has stationed marines on the ship who need to be periodically resupplied.
China says Manila is bringing construction materials to the shoal to reinforce the rusty second world war-era ship, which is at risk of disintegrating. It also accuses Manila of reneging on a promise years ago to remove the ship — a claim that the Philippines has defeated.
Dennis Wilder, a former top CIA China analyst, said Beijing was trying to test what the US response would be if China attempted to remove the Philippine marines from the Sierra Madre and destroy the vessel. He said it probably wanted to build a military outpost on the reef as it has done elsewhere in the South China Sea.
“A base closer to the Philippines would both secure China’s claim in the area and provide a forward operating location for combat operations once morest US forces operating from Philippine territory in a Taiwan Strait conflict,” said Wilder.
Jeff Smith, an Asia expert at the Heritage Foundation, said the US should adopt a tougher stance. “The US should participate in joint resupply missions with Filipino forces and explore options to replace the deteriorating Filipino ship,” he said.
“The US cannot repeat the same mistakes it made in 2012, when China set a terrible precedent by using military coercion to seize control of Scarborough Shoal from the Philippines.”
Underscoring the rising concern regarding the Second Thomas Shoal, the US, Japan, Philippines, and Australia announced that they would hold their first-ever joint military exercises in the Philippines’ exclusive economic zone.
In a joint statement, the defense ministers from the four countries made clear they supported the result of a 2016 arbitration case at The Hague which rejected Chinese claims of historic rights to most of the South China Sea within a demarcation called the “nine-dash line”.
The Chinese embassy in Washington said Xi stressed in his call with Biden that Beijing had sovereignty over the Spratlys, including Second Thomas Shoal. It said the “root cause” of the dispute was that Manila had “repeatedly gone back on its words and tried to build permanent outposts on the uninhabited reef”.
“The US is not a party to the South China Sea issue, yet it keeps meddling in the issue, sowing discord concerning maritime issues between China and the Philippines, and falsely accusing China, causing instability in the region,” said Liu Pengyu, the embassy spokesperson.
Analysis:
The recent warnings by President Joe Biden and Admiral John Aquilino regarding China’s aggressive behavior in the South China Sea signal a growing concern for the potential escalation of tensions in the region. The focus on the Second Thomas Shoal, a contested feature in the Spratly Islands, highlights the gravity of the situation.
The US officials emphasize the importance of the US-Philippines Mutual Defense Treaty, asserting that it applies to the Sierra Madre, the ship that has been grounded on the reef for 25 years. This message aims to deter China from further aggression and to firmly establish the US commitment to defending its allies.
The potential for a direct US-China military confrontation looms, especially if China were to directly attack Philippine ships or armed forces. Such an event would force the US to respond, leading to a major political crisis and possibly a wider military conflict. Bonnie Glaser, a China expert, believes that the Second Thomas Shoal is currently the greatest risk for such a confrontation.
China’s actions in the region are seen as attempts to secure its claim over the South China Sea and establish military outposts for strategic purposes. The deteriorating Filipino ship, the Sierra Madre, is being reinforced, raising concerns that China may take more aggressive action to remove the Philippine marines stationed there.
In light of these circumstances, experts recommend that the US take a tougher stance to counter China’s assertiveness. Suggestions include participating in joint resupply missions with Filipino forces and exploring options to replace the deteriorating ship. Drawing on lessons from the past, it is vital for the US to avoid repeating past mistakes and prevent China from using military coercion to seize control of disputed areas, as was the case with Scarborough Shoal in 2012.
The joint military exercises planned by the US, Japan, Philippines, and Australia in the Philippines’ exclusive economic zone further underscore the shared concern regarding China’s actions in the region. The joint statement by the four defense ministers supports the outcome of the 2016 arbitration case at The Hague, rejecting Chinese claims of historic rights based on the “nine-dash line”.
China, on the other hand, maintains its sovereignty claim over the disputed territories, including Second Thomas Shoal. The Chinese embassy accuses Manila of repeatedly reneging on agreements and attempting to build permanent outposts on uninhabited reefs.
The implications of these developments are significant. The South China Sea remains a hotbed of geopolitical tensions, with the potential to disrupt regional stability and even trigger a wider military conflict. The US and its allies must carefully navigate the situation, balancing deterrence with diplomacy to avoid catastrophic outcomes.
In conclusion, the warnings issued by President Biden and Admiral Aquilino highlight the escalating tensions in the South China Sea. The potential for a direct US-China military confrontation raises concerns regarding regional stability. The US and its allies must take a firm stance to counter China’s assertiveness and prevent further aggression. The joint military exercises and the support for the arbitral ruling demonstrate a unified front once morest Chinese expansionism. However, careful diplomatic engagement is necessary to avoid miscalculation and the potential for unintended consequences. The future of the region hinges on effective diplomacy, adherence to international law, and the strategic calculations of all involved parties.
