After a very negative year in 2023 for exports from the Ñuble region, which closed with a drop of 62.4% for forestry and agricultural shipments, mainly affected by the collapse of forestry shipments and the bad season for cherries and blueberries ; The first two months of 2024 show a recovery in most items, such as pulp, fresh fruit, processed wood and processed fruits.
According to Odepa statistics, prepared with data from the Customs Directorate, in January and February of this year, forestry and agricultural exports from the Ñuble region totaled US$174.2 million, which represented an increase of 46.1% compared to for the same period in 2023.
According to the report, forestry shipments totaled $63.2 million, recording a growth of 262.0% compared to January-February 2023; while, agricultural exports totaled US$110.7 million, marking a year-on-year increase of 8.8%.
In the analysis by item, the explosive increase of 659% experienced by pulp shipments (US$48.3 million) stands out, associated with the low comparison base, since a year ago the forest fires affected operations; as well as the firm recovery of shipments of fresh fruit (US$57.8 million), which grew 26.3%, and in addition, those of processed fruit -mainly frozen- (US$27.2 million), which expanded 26.5% compared to the first two months of 2023.
Similarly, processed wood (US$7.3 million) showed an increase of 181%, however, sawn wood (US$6.3 million) fell 19.7%.
In this regard, Cristóbal Herrera, director of ProChile Ñuble, stated that, “it is important to remember that 2023 was a complex year for the region due to fires and floods, which negatively affected export performance.”
However, he acknowledged that, “we have observed positive results in January and February 2024 compared to the same period in 2023. This indicates a recovery in some traditional export sectors in the region, such as agriculture and the forestry industry. However, it is important to be cautious and carefully analyze the behavior of exports during the rest of the year, considering the different variables that may affect it, such as the global economic situation, climatic conditions and international competition.”
Forestry shipments
The recovery of international markets for forest products appears to be a key factor in the increase in shipments.
Cristóbal Herrera recalled that, “the pulp industry worldwide was affected by the pandemic, with a decrease in shipments in the following years. The recovery we saw in January and February is due to a combination of factors, most importantly, that the industry is stabilizing following the impacts of the pandemic. Production and logistics have been normalized, which has allowed shipments to increase. And, secondly, there is a slight recovery in demand in China and the United States, which are the main pulp markets. The economic recovery in these countries has boosted purchases.”
Alejandro Casagrande, president of Corma Biobío y Ñuble, commented that, “during the period of January and February 2024 compared to the same period in 2023, at the national level, the forestry and pulp industry recorded an increase of 5% in its exports, reaching a total of US$ 988.2 million.”
“In the specific case of Ñuble,” continued the helmsman of the forestry union, “the variation between the previous year and the current year is partly explained by particular circumstances that negatively affected production in 2023. During the first months of that year, the plants Pulp and lumber production centers in the region were affected by forest fires, resulting in the interruption of operations. This had an impact on the region’s production and export capacity, which included a variety of products such as pulp, plywood, sawn timber and profiled timber.”
Casagrande noted that “in 2023, forestry exports had already decreased by 16.8% compared to the previous year, which is attributed to various factors, including the start-up of new pulp mills in the world and “less growth in the economies that are the destination of our products, which generates an oversupply of the product and lower prices.”
As for the rest of 2024, the union leader stated that, “a flat year is expected, with prices still depressed, physical volumes remaining the same, but with better performance of the plants in terms of operations.”
He added that, “in the performance of 2024, the development of conflicts both in Russia – Ukraine and in the Middle East will be relevant, and how these affect the global economy; “Just as it will also be important for the normalization of the economies of our main countries to which we export, especially the United States and China.”
“It is also important that the same thing happens in the national market, that the process of normalization of monetary policy (interest rate) is completed and that our economy is activated,” he emphasized.
Likewise, the biregional president of Corma warned that, “it is crucial that the forestry sector recovers and grows once more to guarantee the necessary supply for both exports and the national market. We cannot ignore that in recent years 35 thousand jobs have been lost in the country, around 200 sawmills of different sizes have been closed. To do this, it is essential to address the worrying decrease in productive forest cover in Chile; 35,000 hectares of forests are being lost each year, instead of reaching the goal of adding 20,000 new hectares, as established on the path to carbon neutrality. our country”.
“It is urgent that small and medium-sized owners plant once more, since they are not currently doing so. This is essential to recover forests in sectors affected by forest fires and to create more forests on forest-suitable lands that are experiencing processes of erosion and loss of productivity, and that are ultimately not contributing to the local economy. To achieve this, the implementation of public policies that support this impulse and that have small and medium-sized owners at the center is required,” Casagrande pointed out.
Fruit exports
In the fresh fruit category, shipments of organic blueberries (US$26.9 million) stood out, which had an increase of 68% compared to January-February 2023; conventional blueberries (US$21.9 million), which grew 14%; and cherries (US$8.6 million), which fell 13%.
In terms of volume, organic blueberries increased 39%, conventional blueberries registered no variation and cherries grew 49%.
It is worth clarifying that these are estimates, given that the final prices for these products are not yet known, said the director of ProChile Ñuble, Cristóbal Herrera. In fact, according to the president of the Ñuble Farmers Association, Carlos González, on Radio La Discusión, prices for cherries would be better than expected.
Regarding blueberries, Herrera maintained that “the global market is dynamic and sensitive to various factors, therefore, it is important to be cautious and wait to observe the sales results during the late blueberry season, since this might affect the final price analyzed.”
That said, the professional pointed out that, “the main factor that has driven the rise in the value of blueberries is the decrease in supply in competing countries, such as Peru, due to climatic conditions, specifically the El Niño phenomenon, which affected to that country in 2023. This lower supply has coincided with constant demand in our main markets, the United States and Europe, which has generated an increase in the price.”
Regarding cherries, Herrera maintained that, “the strong increase in exported volume is mainly due to the fact that this year’s harvest coincided with the Chinese New Year, which generated greater demand from this important market; “Another no less minor factor was the entry into production of new orchards.”
Carlos González, meanwhile, stated that “the blueberries did relatively well, except for some final batches that were not of very good quality, and that they did not arrive in good condition and were punished, because in order to be competitive, with more being produced every day, the only The path for the producer is quality, it is the only way to stay in business. Here the most important thing is no longer volume, but quality.”
On the other hand, the leader pointed out that climatic factors affected the results in the cherries. “We had a very strong winter and a very cold spring, which made pollination difficult for us, but very good quality fruit was sent and what we can see is that the prices are going to be quite good, much better than last year,” he said. .
“I think it will be a very good year, but we must also be clear that fruit producers are coming from many bad years, so, I say that now they will be able to assert themselves a little and those who were up to their necks in water “They will be able to breathe a little,” commented the regional helmsman of the farmers.
In that sense, he reiterated the challenge of varietal replacement. “It is difficult, those who have been more organized and have done a little better, are doing the process, especially in blueberries, of bringing out less productive varieties for new ones, but the bulk of the producers do not have a box, it is prohibitive to go to the bank, but also, the banks are not giving them loans and the interest rates are tremendously high.”
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