Insight into Venezuela’s Fraught Elections: Analysis and Perspectives from Experts

2024-03-31 22:11:00

LOOK: Venezuela: opposition says that Maduro is “alone” following Lula’s statements regarding elections

—How would you define the elections that are going to be held soon in your country?

The way we are going, they are fraudulent elections. The candidates who will compete once morest Maduro are chosen by Maduro. It is not a transparent election even if there were real candidates, like María Corina Machado, who is the candidate who was elected in a primary by all Venezuelans. These are elections that do not meet any of the transparency criteria that an election should have, because, to begin with, the electoral registry has not been reviewed, which is very important. There are many irregularities: dead people voting, arbitrary changes of addresses. Venezuelans abroad, for the most part, will not be able to vote because they established criteria for registering people in the consulates that make it impossible. Of the eight million Venezuelans who live abroad, let’s say, five million can vote. A maximum of 200,000 will vote, maybe 100,000.

— So, is it the announced chronicle of a new triumph for Maduro?

Yes of course. All this is done so that Maduro repeats his government. In Venezuela there are no media outlets. Independent media is totally shut down. The manipulation with the food boxes is an operation that they orchestrate every time there is an election. So this type of food blackmail with the people also serves their electoral mechanisms and the entire structure of the National Electoral Council is in their hands. So, you can vary any type of thing within the results. It cannot possibly be a transparent election.

“These are elections that do not meet any of the transparency criteria that an election should have.”

—And they have María Corina Machado with a disqualification until 2036…

Yes, but it is a false and fictitious disqualification because, according to the Constitution, in order to be disqualified from political rights, one must have a trial with a final sentence. That was the argument given to [Hugo] Chavez. The Supreme Court of Justice authorized him because the demand for his disqualification did not comply with a final ruling in the trial for having carried out a coup d’état. María Corina does not have a final sentence. Besides, no one knows what the trial is.

— María Corina, despite all the international support, is still in the tunnel and Corina Yoris – who was her successor – has also been banned. The opposition scenario has to be defined this April 20 and there are Edmundo González Urrutia and Manuel Rosales. Are these two candidates that suit Nicolás Maduro?

If in the end any of these candidates can beat Maduro, they will be disqualified before the elections or end up in prison. This is a process that is marked by a dictator who wants to compete because he needs to legitimize himself, but does not want to compete with the possibility of losing.

—How much does the current international rejection matter? Not only the United States, but also the European Union. Lula and Petro, who were previously incapable of criticizing, do so today.

The democratic and Western world today rejects what Maduro does. That isolates him, but he also has a very deep problem, which is the economy. Maduro destroyed 82% of Venezuela’s GDP in seven years. That did not happen even when the Allies and the Russians arrived in Berlin in World War II, when there was Hitler, who said that he resisted to the last man. They destroyed 75% of Germany’s GDP. Maduro has destroyed 82% of Venezuela’s GDP without a shot being fired. So, that implies a totally crushed economy. In fact, the minimum wage in Venezuela is three dollars, which is the lowest in the world.

LOOK: Lula and Macron affirm that the veto of Corina Yoris’ candidacy in Venezuela is “serious” and “without explanation”

—And not to mention oil…

Chávez produced 3,300,000 barrels a day, now they are producing 760,000 barrels. In this last year they rose 50,000 barrels, which is all they might raise. And of those 760,000 barrels is the oil they use to pay the debt to the Chinese, which is regarding 400,000 barrels. There is the oil they give to Cubans, which has been decreasing, and, of course, internal consumption. What remains as a generator of currency is very small and Venezuela does not produce anything other than oil.

—And how can we understand that, with these terrifying conditions, the Venezuelan people cannot remove Maduro?

The theme of repression is very strong. The only efficient thing they do is repression. They have not been able to build a bridge, a school, provide electricity, give water to the people; none of that, which is what governments do. The only thing they know how to do is repress. They have carried out an extermination of all community leaders, neighborhood leaders. They have killed a lot, many are in prison and others left the country.

—They copied the Cuban model very well…

Exactly, that Castro model that generates fear and destroys popular leadership. Maduro also managed to get eight million people to leave. The entire middle class is gone and young people have left in large numbers. Venezuela is a country where there are few young people and many old people. That doesn’t mean that at some point there won’t be some kind of uprising. The conditions are in place for there to be an uprising at some point, but it is not as simple as it may have been in other times, because they have created a structure in which terror and repression mechanisms are very efficient.

—Is there room for hope?

Of course! I continue making the newspaper, I continue reporting despite the fact that they took over the newspaper’s facilities, despite the blockade. I hope to return. The Latin American scenario is becoming blurry because Lula, Petro and Boric also take away its strength; He only has Nicaragua left and of course López Obrador, who so far has not given any signal. Then, there is the issue of the Iranians who also have interests in Venezuela and Maduro has been a very faithful defender with many joint projects. There is, of course, the Cuban influence, which is fundamental, because Maduro was installed as president by the Cubans when Chávez died.

“It is a process that is marked by a dictator who wants to compete because he needs to legitimize himself.”

—What do you consider to be the most frightening line that Nicolás Maduro crossed?

There are two themes. One is repression, because the number of extrajudicial executions is gigantic, politicians, grassroots community leaders and criminals. In a certain sense, they have cleaned up crime a little in the big cities because they exterminate. If they catch a kidnapper, they simply kill him, he does not go to trial. So, this kind of mechanism of extrajudicial executions is a terrible thing, which is one of the most important issues that is in the trial at the International Criminal Court. The other issue is the total indifference to the hunger of Venezuelans, to the terrible impoverishment of a country that was the richest in Latin America. They impoverished it in such a way that eight million Venezuelans left. The second city that had the most Venezuelans was Maracaibo, today it is Lima, which already has 800,000 Venezuelans.

—And the big problem is that many criminals also arrived in Peru. In several robberies and murders, Venezuelans are protagonists.

They have done the same thing that Fidel did: they have half-emptied the prisons and sent them to neighboring countries.

—So, it’s not an urban legend…

Maduro has emptied part of the prisons, which have had serious overcrowding issues for a long time. The way to solve overcrowding, sending all those criminals to neighboring countries, and the Aragua Train and all that is an orchestrated thing. That’s not just Venezuelan crime that emigrates; It is also something promoted by the regime, which is also a copy of what Fidel Castro does with the Americans.

—But that is abominable. The Aragua Train does a lot of damage in Peru.

In Peru, in Chile and even in Chicago. They don’t care regarding anything as long as they stay in power.

—How do you think Maduro is going to end? The government says that all of the opposition, the unitary platform that the coalition seeks to have, are basically a society of accomplices who confuse public opinion and who are also going to cover up co-responsibility in crimes once morest the constitutional order. Maduro believes they are going to kill him.

When they talk to me regarding the post-Maduro, I always ask the question: for which exit model? When the wall fell, the Berlin Wall, there were almost no prisoners. They agreed; The Germans discharged all those people and removed them from charges, but there were no further trials. On the other hand, in Romania there were 30,000 deaths, starting with Nicolás Ceausescu and his wife and all the ministers and everyone they found around, who had to do with the government, they killed him. So, the output models are different. There is the East German exit model, there is the Romania model. I am sure that at some point a phenomenon will occur, a situation in Venezuela in which we will achieve a solution. I’m sure.

—Who was worse: Hugo Chávez or Nicolás Maduro?

They are the same thing. Maduro is the continuation of Chávez, but his level of destruction is gigantic. You cannot separate Chávez from Maduro, it is a single process.

“Peru removes its presidents very quickly”

—The home of the president of Peru was raided. She has not wanted or been able to explain where she got so much money to buy the high-end watches. What do you think of Dina Boluarte?

In Peru there are too many problems with leadership, in fact it is the country that has the most presidents in prison or with judicial processes in the world. The problem of Parliament and political parties is leadership and I think that Peruvian politicians should try to configure some platform that, in some way, leads because today there is no way to lead the country. Dina Boluarte is in serious trouble. When they ask her regarding something expensive that she has on her, it is because she has not declared it, it is because she does not say the origin of the funds to have bought so much; then there is an irregularity. She lives on one salary, which is that of the president, and she has no other assets. With that salary she cannot buy the Rolex, therefore there is a suspicious undeclared source of income. When a president or an official appears with a material asset worth a fortune, there is obviously an irregularity and we have every right to ask where so much comes from.

“The democratic and Western world today rejects what Maduro does. That isolates him.”

— Will he survive the attack?

In all the countries I know, presidents have immunity, that is, an operation like this would have to go through a process in Congress. In any case, the Peruvian prosecutor’s office can investigate the president for the origin of the Rolex funds according to Peruvian laws. But, obviously as an observer, my comment is that this prosecutorial procedure is seen as exaggerated. It lends itself to different speculations.

— Today several politicians are asking for his resignation and another is wondering if he will be able to make it to 2026.

I really don’t know, but Peru produces presidents very quickly.

— Before, it was Ecuador that quickly released the presidents…

Yes, but in Ecuador they carried out coups d’état. In Ecuador everything was resolved with bullets and blows. In Peru everything is resolved with complaints and prison. Boluarte’s probability is low due to the statistical history of the duration of presidents. In the end, it is never good for a country when presidents leave so quickly.

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