2024-03-31 22:12:00
This is the result of a drop in the number of animals raised in the United States, the world’s second largest exporter: pork futures sales for delivery in July have increased by 40% since January.
A sign that the markets anticipate a shortage of pork during 2024, it is the futures prices which have increased, that is to say the contracts subscribed for delivery in six months and not the sales ” physiques » pork today. This indicator is therefore not representative of the prices offered to the American consumer today, but constitutes a market thermometer.
The sector is today influenced by a drop in production by American breeders: livestock feed that is too expensive compared to the selling price has weighed on the profitability of farms. Breeders have suffered losses for more than 12 consecutive months. They therefore reduced their livestock. This even led the Tyson group to announce the upcoming closure of a slaughterhouse in Iowa, which employed 1,200 people.
Impact beyond the domestic market
Too low sales prices which lead to a drop in production, “ it’s a classic in the industry », explains Jean-Paul Simier, expert in the meat sector: when a producer wins, he increases his herd, when he loses money, he reduces his production. Hence the fear of running out of pork which is now driving up prices.
This increase currently mainly affects the American market because the dynamic is above all local in the pork sector. Only 10% of global pork production is sold on the international market. But at a given moment, these domestic markets end up interacting with each other, explains Jean-Paul Simier.
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Collapse of production in Europe
An increase in the United States can therefore have repercussions elsewhere, especially since the market is tense in Europe too: European pork production fell by 7% last year. In two years, Europe has lost the equivalent of French pork production.
Since February, European prices have also started to rise once more. The reference quotation appears at more than two euros per kilo of pork. They might be even higher if the Chinese market was not slowing down, because in this sector too it is China “ who makes the prices » upwards or downwards.
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