2024-03-30 14:02:07
Update
30 mars 2024
15:02
The Moscow attack and the new threats from the Islamic State are taken very seriously by Western services, says the director of the International Counter-Terrorism Center.
Abu Hudhayfah al-Ansari, the spokesman for the Islamic State group, announced new global terrorist attacks on Thursday, and called for “lone wolves” to specifically target Christians and Jews. This call coincides with the tenth anniversary of the establishment of the Islamic State caliphate.
In passing, al-Ansari claimed, once once more, the bloody attack in Moscow, which cost the lives of more than 140 people. An operation carried out by a cell of the Afghan branch of the jihadist organization, the Islamic State in Khorasan (IS-K), which stands out as the most dangerous terrorist entity of the moment. Western intelligence services are on alert. The threat is taken very seriously.
“The threat is real for Belgium and Europe,” says Thomas Renard, director of the International Counter-Terrorism Center (ICCT). But “this threat is not new, EI-K has been on the radar since 2022, a year following the departure of the United States from Afghanistan and the return of the Taliban to power”.
Jihadist terrorists have also benefited from rallying of local warlords who fought Westerners alongside the Taliban.
“EI-K is today the only jihadist group that has the capacity to project forces and plan an attack internationally.”
The Islamic State, defeated by the Western coalition in Syria and Iraq, now has nearly 4,000 fighters in Afghanistan. In addition to this Afghan establishment, there are very active cells in West Africa.
Belgium concerned
“EI-K is today the only jihadist group that has the capacity to project forces and plan an attack internationally,” continues Thomas Renard. The threat is known to Belgian State Security, which mentions it in its report for the year 2023.
This terrorist group might be present on Belgian territory in two forms. “It may bea cell sent by EI-K, trained and trained people who infiltrate our home,” he explains. “We can also be in the presence of radicalized individuals already established there, ready to commit attacks. People who are part of a community in Central Asia, the Caucasus or Chechnya, who are connected to the jihadists via Telegram or the EI-K English-language magazine.”
Cells or lone wolves might reside within these communities. “In the regions of Antwerp, where there is a strong Chechen community, Brussels and Liège-Verviers. Areas historically linked to jihadism,” says Thomas Renard.
“Threat number one”
EI-K is today “the number one threat” of jihadist terrorism in Europe, by its means and its structure, affirms the expert. “After the US withdrawal from Afghanistan, it took a year for the Islamic State to analyze the situation, regain strength and plan attacks.” The first attacks targeted Afghanistan and neighboring countries.
“IS-K has a goal of global jihadism because it believes it will inspire change.”
“After 2022, IS-K began to take the place of the Islamic State of Syriawith the difference that it does not have a contingent in Europe. To carry out attacks, they have to infiltrate Afghan or Caucasian fighters, it’s complicated,” says Thomas Renard.
The terrorist organization operates two migration corridors, one passing through Turkey and the other, more recent, coming from Ukraine. “EI-K has managed to mix a few individuals into the flow of migrants who do not pose a problem,” he specifies.
Global jihadism
Why is the Islamic State targeting Europe? Unlike the Taliban, who limit their action to the local scale, “EI-K has a goal of global jihadismbecause he thinks that he will inspire changes in society”, summarizes Thomas Renard.
“We cannot rule out a new international operation once morest the Islamic State, even if it is not the best approach.”
The organization’s modus operandi includes a psychological and theatrical aspect. During the Moscow attack, the horrific scenes were filmed by the perpetrators and then broadcast on social networks. As if the Islamic State wanted to coldly relaunch its “brand” on the international scene.
“Jihadist organizations follow commercial tactics, they work on their brand image to attract new recruits and raise funds“, says Thomas Renard. To finance itself, EI-K depends on taxes raised locally and donations on an international scale.
“Relegitimize the Taliban”
To fight once morest jihadism, there is no no ready-made recipeno foolproof system. “Even Russia, a totalitarian state where absolute control reigns, failed to predict a Bataclan-type attack“, says the expert.
“I have seen improvements in Europe in the fight once morest terrorism. Of course, we can always do better, there is no such thing as zero risk“, he explains.
If the threat persists, “we cannot exclude a new international military operation once morest the Islamic State, even if it is not the best approach, as shown in the previous intervention“, estimates Thomas Renard.
The summary
- The Islamic State in Khorasan, the Afghan branch of the jihadist group, represents the number one terrorist threat in Europe and Belgiumsays Thomas Renard, director of the ICCT.
- Intelligence has been monitoring her since fall 2022, one year following the departure of American troops from Afghanistan.
- EI-K can project itself into Europe, or have individuals there.
- To counter EI-K, Western services might relegitimize the Taliban regime.
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