Wisconsin’s 2020 presidential primary set the stage for a general election campaign that Democrats view as a unique opportunity in recent state history. Significant changes to legislative districts, which were adopted last month, have diminished Republican advantages that have traditionally given the GOP dominance in the Wisconsin Assembly. Despite Democrats winning 14 of the past 17 statewide elections, these new legislative maps now pave the way for Democrats to compete for a majority. Moreover, invigorated legislative campaigns are expected to drive voter turnout for President Joe Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris in November.
Ben Wikler, the state Democratic Party chairman, coined the term “reverse coattails” to describe this approach, a diversion from the traditional belief that down-ballot candidates benefit from the top of the ticket. By driving up turnout among unlikely voters, Democrats anticipate a significant impact on the number of votes they receive for Biden-Harris. The consequences of these new state legislative maps are far-reaching beyond the state Legislature.
While it is still early to gauge the effectiveness of Wikler’s idea, both political parties anticipate the upcoming fall rematch between Biden and former Republican President Donald Trump to be closely contested in key battleground states like Wisconsin. Having narrowly flipped from Trump to Biden four years ago, Wisconsin is crucial in determining the final outcome of the presidential election.
Assembly Speaker Robin Vos, responsible for recruiting GOP candidates and maintaining the Republican majority in the Statehouse, dismisses the Democratic premise. He believes that all voters will primarily focus on the presidential race, as it garners the most attention. However, Democrats argue that renewed personal attention to key neighborhoods in small towns, suburbs, and rural areas, which were previously part of heavily Republican legislative seats, will significantly impact the election. These areas are now part of more competitive districts, attracting more campaign activity and potentially leading to a boost in turnout for Biden and the Democratic Party.
In addition to the presidential race, Wisconsin has emerged as one of the half-dozen battleground states where Democrats are defending Senate seats to protect their slim majority of 51-49. Senator Tammy Baldwin, who is running for a third term, is likely to face millionaire businessman Eric Hovde in the primary. Baldwin agrees that the “reverse coattails” phenomenon might benefit her and other legislative races, as the previous gerrymandered districts limited competition. Fair districts that encourage more contested races ensure people’s voices and votes are heard.
One particular Wisconsin village that is expected to attract more campaign activity is Weston, located in Marathon County. Previously, it was part of an overwhelmingly rural, Republican-performing Assembly district. However, the new legislative boundaries will place it in a more competitive district, contributing to increased canvassing efforts aimed at progressive-minded voters who may have previously been inactive. This, in turn, may also lead to more votes for Biden.
While Republicans still have an advantage in approximately half of the Assembly’s 99 seats, Democrats, who currently hold 35 seats, have a better chance in the newly redrawn districts. These districts include areas in Democratic-leaning regions such as the outskirts of the Minnesota Twin Cities metro area, Eau Claire, and the vote-rich Fox River Valley. Trump’s planned rally in Green Bay further emphasizes the significance of these areas in the upcoming election.
Even if Democrats fall short of securing a majority in the Assembly, the aggressive canvassing efforts for legislative candidates might identify individuals who are willing to vote Democrat in tight top-of-the-ticket races. Given that recent Wisconsin elections have been decided by narrow margins, the impact of these local races might be influential. With the potential to influence the House majority, one of the most competitive Senate races in the nation, and even the overall presidential election, the multiplicity of races in Wisconsin intensifies the organizational efforts of political parties and candidates.
Assembly Speaker Vos maintains that Republicans have the upper hand, relying on better candidates and a stronger message. He acknowledges the potential value of face-to-face campaigning for Statehouse candidates over television ads. Nonetheless, he believes voters will primarily be motivated by their dislike for Donald Trump, focusing on the top of the ticket rather than lower-level races.
In conclusion, Wisconsin’s 2020 presidential primary has paved the way for a general election campaign with unique opportunities. The adoption of new legislative districts has narrowed Republican advantages and created more competitive races, giving Democrats hopes of gaining a majority in the Wisconsin Assembly. This, in turn, is expected to drive turnout for President Biden and Vice President Harris. The significance of Wisconsin in determining the final outcome of the presidential election cannot be underestimated, and both parties are gearing up for a closely contested battle.
As the election season progresses, it is essential to closely monitor the implications of these new legislative districts and their impact on voter turnout and the overall political landscape in Wisconsin. The battle for control of the presidency, Senate seats, and the state Legislature will undoubtedly shape the future of Wisconsin politics. The outcome of these races will have implications not only for Wisconsin but also for the broader national political landscape.
