Analyzing the Honeymoon Period of President Javier Milei: An In-depth Look at Public Opinion and Trust (2024 Update)

2024-03-26 15:14:00
The “honeymoon” of the majority of the population with President Javier Milei persists (REUTERS/Denis Balibouse/File Photo)

Despite the economic shock measures that impact the population, the course adopted by Javier Milei maintains high popular approval. However, the School of Government of the Torcuato Di Tella University (UTDT) detected a slight drop of 0.5% in the Government Trust Index (ICG) corresponding to the month of March 2024.

The ICG has been prepared since November 2001 based on a national public opinion survey, conducted by Poliarquía Consultores, and is measured on a scale from 0 to 5. It is a survey that closely follows the “red circle.” This indicator, which was first released with an increase and then corrected an error in the study, was 2.56 points in March, which implies in year-on-year terms the index had a positive variation of 144.1% due to the contrast with the meager support that Alberto Fernández reaped in his last year of government.

Comparatively with other historical records, the current level of trust with Javier Milei is 15.2% lower than that of March 2016, which coincided with the government of Mauricio Macri, and 15.4% higher than that of the March 2020 measurement, when The mandate of the Frente de Todos began.

The salient data from the survey -coinciding with other public opinion polls- is that there is still a “honeymoon” and the check of the population’s confidence in Milei’s management. The truth is that the inflationary surge and the first signs of a sharp decline in the economy are beginning to show their first signs of decline in the support that the libertarian leader achieved in the runoff. According to the UTDT, the average value of the ICG in the period December 2023 to March 2024 is similar (2.1% lower) to what was surveyed between December 2015 and March 2016, in the first months of Cambiemos. And it had a better start than Alberto Fernández’s first quarter, since the indicator is 20.7% higher than the average collected between December 2019 and March 2020.

The curious thing is that these are three different contexts of corrective economic policies. Fernández and Macri implemented unpopular measures in their first 100 days, but they were far from the depth of the “chainsaw” plan and the “blender” of public spending and salaries that the current government implemented. With the evolution of the first months of management, the ICG presents a drop in the period December 2023 to March 2024 of 10.4%, but the value of the index is still 81.1% higher than the value registered in November 2023.

The survey, carried out on 1,005 cases throughout the country, investigates in detail what is positively observed. As reported, the GCI was positive in two of its five components compared to the previous month: General evaluation of the government (2.33 points, 7.7%), Efficiency in the administration of public spending (2.51 points, 6.2%), Ability to solve the country’s problems (4.66 points, 47.5%). On the contrary, it had falls in the measurement of Concern for the general interest (2.34 points, -0.8%), and in the Honesty of officials (2.53 points, -10.1% ).

Other trends in support for libertarians were also corroborated. The climate of opinion in March was once once more more favorable among men, which measured 2.64 points – with a drop of 3% -; than among women, where the indicator touched 2.49 points and obtained a slight increase of 2 percent.

Age is also an influential factor. The Together for Change vote seems to be consolidating in favor of Milei, which concentrates more support among those over 50 years of age, since the registration rose 4% to 2.68 points in that group. Young people between 18 and 29 years old remained stable, with barely 1% increase, and the ICG reached 2.54 points. The most refractory are adults between 30 and 49 years old, where the indicator is 2.45 points and a drop of 5 percent was observed.

Support remains higher among those who live in the interior of the country (2.78 points), although a slight drop of 3 percent was detected. The ICG among those who live in the City of Buenos Aires reaches 2.37 points, and rose 4%; while the inhabitants of Greater Buenos Aires maintain the lowest value of the projection, with 2.17 points although with a growth of 4 percent.

As in February, the survey recorded its highest value among people with tertiary and/or university education: 2.70 points, but with a drop of 3 percent. They were followed by those with secondary education (2.51 points, with a increase of 3%); and finally, the lowest adherence is among those who have primary education (1.85 points, with a growth of 2%).

The trend in favor of Milei persisted and was highest among those who believe that the economic situation will improve within a year (4.12 points, with a growth of 2%). However, among those who believe it will remain the same, the ICG had a significant drop of 25%, reaching 2.44 points. The same happened with those who believe it will get worse, where the indicator had 0.58 points and a sharp drop of 23 percent was detected.

Company in charge: carried out by Poliarquía Consultores.

Universe: general population over 18 years of age, residing in cities with more than 10,000 inhabitants.

Survey type: telephone.

Sample characteristics: random, multi-stage, stratified by areas for the selection of characteristics and telephone numbers. Selection of interviewees based on sex and age quotas.

Sample size: 1005 cases in forty-four locations throughout the country.

ICG standard error for the total sample: ±0.062. Confidence interval (95%) of the ICG: 2.4377 -2.6834

Field work dates: between March 4 and March 13, 2024.

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