[Yahoo morning trading]Is the Taiwan stock market volatile and all profits have been exhausted?Analyst Weng Weijie: If TSMC does not continue to hit highs, the market will pull back to 20,000 points

2024-03-25 05:55:06

U.S. stocks were mixed. Philadelphia semiconductor stocks continued to rise. Japanese and Korean stock markets were in different tunes. Taiwanese stocks opened flat at 20,228 points this morning (25) and then fluctuated in a narrow range. Technology stocks are on hiatus, have all the profits been exhausted? Weng Weijie, a dual-licensed securities analyst, said in an interview this morning (25th) that only NVIDIA was the only one performing in the US technology last week, and TSMC ADR (2330) failed to keep up. This wave of Taiwan stock index has hit a high, but TSMC’s stock price has It has not broken through the previous high of 796 yuan, showing a “divergence” situation. If it does not break through once more, the Taiwan stock market is at risk of pulling back. It cannot be ruled out that it will backtest downward and consolidate around 20,000 points. The structure needs to be further adjusted before there will be another opportunity.

Taiwan stocks fluctuate and all profits are wiped out? Analyst Weng Weijie: If TSMC does not continue to hit highs, the market will pull back to 20,000 points.File photo: Central News Agency

TSMC’s ADR failed to keep up with Huida’s trend last Friday

Weng Weijie said that this morning the Taipei stock market was still affected by the technology of the US stock market. Last Friday, only NIVID was the only heavyweight technology player in the United States to take advantage of GTC. There was a clear upward trend at the conference, rising 3%. Other large-capitalization stocks such as Facebook, Apple, and Microsoft were weak, while TSMC ADR did not keep up, rising only 0.78%. , a relatively weak development, also affected the trend of Taiwan stocks this morning.

Electronic stocks were not strong this morning. They have become an important driving force for the rise of Taiwanese stocks since February. After the Federal Reserve released the news that it would definitely cut interest rates, technology stocks rose for a time, but there was a “phenomenon that all the profits were exhausted”. The strongest AI might not push For Taidong, TSMC is leading the gains this time, but so far, the stock price has fluctuated sideways between 750 and 780 yuan. It hit a sky-high price of 796 points in the previous wave and has not broken through once more.

The market took the lead to break through 20,296 points. TSMC’s sky-high price of 796 points has not yet broken, showing a divergence.

However, the Taiwan stock index hit a new high of 20,296 points last week, which means that the Taiwan stock market hit a new high, but TSMC did not hit a high. “There is a divergence situation. If TSMC cannot hit another high, it is easy for the market to pull back when the index hits a high.” risks of”.

Weng Weijie further analyzed that the four AI server stocks that originally rose in May last year, such as Quanta (2382), Inventec (2356), Wistron (3231), Wiwynn (6669) and TSMC, have not reached new highs this year. The performance is divergent. They no longer keep up with Huida’s gains. On the contrary, recently, Hon Hai (2317) and Delta Electronics (2308) have fallen behind and compensated for gains. The leaders have changed to compensate for gains. The structure has changed and the market focus needs to be adjusted.

Investors are advised to pay attention to two points: foreign capital and chips

He believes that investors need to pay attention to two points next, one is the dynamics of foreign investment, and the other is the change in chips. It depends on the trend of the New Taiwan Dollar. When the central bank announced an interest rate hike, the Taiwan dollar depreciated all the way to 32 yuan, which shows that the Taiwan stock market cannot retain the funds that fled out of the country. Although foreign capital has been overbuying recently, there must be an outflow from Taiwan and it is quite serious. The trend continues to depreciate towards 32 yuan. Funds The outflow will definitely affect the selling of Taiwan stocks by foreign investors. In conjunction with the ETF craze, foreign investors will dump stocks to retail investors, and the market chips will shift from legal persons to retail investors. No matter how big the profit is, it will not rise.

Therefore, he suggested that if investors want to make very short-term profits, it is easy to eat ETF tofu, but they should pay attention to the changes in price and volume. If the explosive volume is long and the black explosive volume does not increase, foreign investors are selling heavily or investment credit adjustment, they should leave early if the chips are loose, and the 3-day line or 5-day line should be left early. Daily lows are signals of the end of short-term gains. We should pay attention to whether the purpose of buying and speculating in the long term still exists? When dividends are paid or corporate profits grow, the main method is to adjust holdings and sell them.

Taiwan stocks fluctuated today and the probability of pulling back is high. TSMC will pull back 20,000 points if it does not rise.

In general, Weng Weijie believes that the Taiwan stock market is mainly volatile today, and the decline may further expand. If TSMC does not rise, the Taiwan stock market will have a good chance of testing the 20,000-point support.

• Yahoo Finance special correspondent Ye Yiru: With more than 20 years of experience in mainstream financial media, from the Web1.0 bubble in 2000 to the Meta Yuanverse Web3.0, he has witnessed the rise and fall of Taiwan’s large and small business groups, and has experienced five international financial crises. We believe that finance is life and is everywhere. No matter how difficult financial knowledge is, we should explain it in a simple way. Everyone, young and old, should manage money. If you don’t manage money, money will not care regarding you.

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