European elections, from the Democratic Party to Fdi: what are the leaders’ standards to say they have won

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The goal is to keep your feet on the ground. The prime minister’s bar Giorgia Meloni for the European elections of 8 and 9 June, at least officially, it is the political one. Because already maintaining the exploit of 2022, when Fratelli d’Italia jumped to 26% of the votes, “for a government in office for a year and a half, is not easy”. In a recent interview with Agorà on Rai 3, Giorgia Meloni established the parameter on which to evaluate success or otherwise in the European elections, the first real test for the centre-right despite the various regional events that are preceding them. The target is therefore 26% and not 30% as has been leaked several times. All the extra should be celebrated as a victory. The latest polls actually give it 27%, but caution is a must.

For Salvini the bar is at 10%

In the League Matteo Salvini, dealing with discontent in the party due to his veer too far to the right, plays a throw-in. And he puts his hands forward. “I am convinced that we will reach at least double figures in the European elections,” he told young activists during an event in Milan. To secure its shaky position, it therefore clings to the minimum threshold of 10%, which would still represent a step forward compared to the 8.8% of the 2022 elections (given that the 34.3% exploit in the 2019 European elections now belongs to prehistory).

Forza Italia aims to overtake the League

Forza Italia, growing in the latest regional elections in Sardinia and Abruzzo, does not hide its ambition to overtake the League. “The objective is to exceed 10% in the European elections” said the Fi secretary Antonio Tajani. The Azzurri start from 8.1% in the previous elections and from 8.8% in the 2019 European elections.

For the Democratic Party, the 20% threshold is decisive

In the House of Dem, the leaders do not give official figures. Polls place the party between 19 and 20%. But reaching 20% ​​is the minimum wage asked of the new secretary Elly Schlein to avoid psychodrama in the party. This is a sort of survival bar: it would at least mean exceeding 19% of the political elections (even if in the last European elections the party reached 22.7%). The gap with the M5s will then be fundamental. A narrow gap for an elected secretary to move further to the left and compete with the 5 stars for “outgoing” votes would be considered a failure. And it would give Conte more breathing space to compete with Schlein for the premiership candidacy in the progressive camp.

Favorable polls for the M5s

As for the M5s, despite the poor results of the latest regional elections, the polls seem favorable to the party Giuseppe Conte and have long detected an upward trend compared to the 15.4% of policies. One created by BiDimedia srl ​​on (between 4 and 6 March) gives them at 16.1%. While another from Ipsos for Euronews (between 23 February and 5 March) sees them at 17.4% (over 17% of the previous European ones).