2024-03-20 01:01:03
When Lebanon entered the presidential vacuum in 2014 and then in 2022, the problem was not in the name of the president, but in the political and strategic choices, and most importantly, linking Lebanon’s fate and path to foreign countries that sponsor it, and today the vacuum was not the result of a crisis of choices between the Free Patriotic Movement and Hezbollah. Just to name a few, but it was the result of basic factors: bad internal relations between the political and parliamentary components, the regional conflict between the Islamic Republic of Iran and the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, the international conflict between America and Iran, and Lebanon being directly affected by this issue. .
These are the basic problems that were and are still hindering the election of a president of the republic, and therefore the issue is not only related to the leader of such-and-such party being upset with his counterpart, nor to one of them’s refusal to discuss with others, which makes the talk regarding a window opening in the wall of the crisis linked to changes that affect these basic obstacles, which have been added to. Last October, the war file in the region, from Gaza to southern Lebanon, was discussed.
Between these mines go all the attempts to bring the presidential file closer together, and here what is meant by bringing the points of view closer is to prepare the necessary Lebanese ground to receive the settlement, which inevitably needs a ground to market it inside Lebanon, and from here it is understood what the five-member committee currently consisting of the ambassadors of the five countries working on is doing. The presidential line, and also the initiative of the National Moderation Bloc, which did not deviate from the proposal of Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri and his consultation regarding it with the five ambassadors.
Follow-up parliamentary sources indicate that burdening the role of the quintet with what is unbearable is the main reason for its failure, as it realizes that the scales of electing the president are linked to large issues, and therefore its work is limited to attempts to bring viewpoints closer together and reduce the gaps between the conflicting forces at home in order to pass settlements that may come soon. From abroad, therefore, according to the sources, it decided to activate its action today to keep pace with the moderation initiative, in the hope that it will succeed in achieving these goals.
So, the goal of the moderation initiative and the quintet movement is not to elect a president and end the vacuum, but rather to prepare the way for the possibility of this matter happening from the outside to the inside, and here the role of Qatar on the Lebanese arena is highlighted, as it was the one who took it upon itself to try to pass the presidential settlement during the time of the truce in Gaza. It happened, and according to sources, this was also without obstacles.
Sources reveal via Al-Nashra that Qatar’s attempts are aimed at passing the presidency if the truce occurs, so that the president will be abreast of every stage of the negotiations that will come later, noting that the obstacles in this issue are the nature of the truce that might happen. It is true that the Shiite duo repeatedly stressed The course of the war has nothing to do with the course of the presidency, but rather it relates to the direct political relationship in the first place, which means that if the truce occurs and is not accompanied by a ceasefire or reassurances and guarantees that an end to the war will be discussed, there may not yet be a place for settlements in the region.
The Americans and the Iranians are negotiating in Amman, the Saudis and the Iranians are coordinating on the region’s files. The turn remains for the Lebanese file, in politics and war, to come, and then the next president will be released, following the quintet, moderation, and the initiatives between them have prepared the necessary ground for that. Will it be a presidential summer? Or are there surprises that will topple the presidency and move us to a different stage?
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