In the Alpine ski resorts there will be an average of around 40 percent fewer days with snow cover by the end of the century. The scientists led by Veronika Mitterwallner from the University of Bayreuth (Germany) collected data on the seven most important regions in the world in which ski tourism plays an important role. They then converted climate scenarios with different levels of greenhouse gas emissions by the end of the century to the respective regional conditions in the Alps, the Andes in South America, the North American Appalachians and Rocky Mountains as well as the Japanese, Australian and New Zealand Alps (Southern Alps). Previous relevant studies have mostly only looked at smaller-scale effects of global warming on ski areas, which is why the focus here is on a global scale, say the scientists.
In some cases there is no natural snowfall at all
The region of the world with by far the largest concentration of ski resorts is the European Alps, which, according to the survey by Mitterwallner and colleagues, accounts for almost 70 percent of the resorts; 15 percent of the ski resorts are in the Rocky Mountains and seven percent in Japan. From the new analyzes it can be deduced that globally, one in eight ski resorts – i.e. 13 percent – can expect to no longer experience any natural snowfall in the winter season in the period from 2071 to 2100, according to the work.
Different scenarios
“In all major ski regions, a substantial decrease in the number of days with natural snow cover is expected under every emission scenario evaluated,” says Mitterwallner. For Europe, the numbers are also pointing downwards – but to a very different extent: The best scenario describes stable average temperatures at around 1.8 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels (“SSP1-2.6”) around the year 2100. In this case the The average number of days with natural snow cover across the entire Alpine arc will fall from 218 (in the period between 1981 and 2010) to 184 in the period between 2071 and 2100. With this very optimistic approach, the number of snow days would hardly be reduced compared to the current situation (period 2011-2040).
In the high-emissions scenario (“SSP3-7.0”) with a temperature increase of around 3.6 degrees by the end of the century, the decline in snow increases sharply: from a historical 218 to the current 187 days and further to an average of just 137 days Year 2100. If, on the other hand, you assume “very high” greenhouse gas emissions with a catastrophic increase of around 4.4 degrees, you end up with only 129 days of snow in the Alpine ski areas.
There is hardly any snow left, especially in Australia’s ski resorts
Under such high-emission assumptions, there would be almost no snow at all, especially in Australia’s ski resorts. In the SSP3-7.0 scenario, annual snow cover days are reduced by 78 percent in the Australian Alps, 51 percent in the New Zealand Alps, exactly half in the Japanese Alps, 43 percent in the Andes and 42 percent in the European Alps. The reductions are smallest in the Appalachians (minus 37 percent) and the Rocky Mountains at 23 percent compared to 1981 to 2010.
Image: Hörmandinger
Another study from the University of Innsbruck and the University of Waterloo (Canada) recently looked at the economic effects of the global warming that is already taking place in North America: In the journal “Current Issues in Tourism”, the team quantified the economic losses of the US ski industry due to the Climate change in the past two decades with over five billion dollars (around 4.6 billion euros).
“Potentially negative developments”
“Our results point to potentially negative developments both for the recreational and economic value of skiing and for mountain biodiversity, as endangered high mountain species might be threatened by the loss of space when ski areas expand,” said sports economist Mitterwallner regarding the new “Plos One” work. This means that profitable ski resorts will clearly be located higher and higher and therefore closer to the main ridges of the mountain ranges. This further increases the economic pressure on even more sparsely populated refuges for alpine nature because infrastructure is being expanded here. In areas with even less snow at lower altitudes closer to metropolitan areas, lift operators would have to rely even more on artificial snowmaking than they do now in order to guarantee operations that are as comprehensive as possible.
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