2024-03-13 13:50:07
Has France won the battle once morest inflation? Not yet, but the governor of the Bank of France, François Villeroy de Galhau, wants to be reassuring regarding its development: “We will bring inflation down to 2% by next year”he anticipates, definitively removing the specter of recession.
Specialists agree on the decline in inflation in France, despite the increases which still affect certain products. François Villeroy de Galhau, the governor of the Bank of France, is of this opinion. He even wants to be very optimistic by dismissing the specter of recession, even if he says he remains vigilant: “We are winning the battle once morest inflation,” he said this Wednesday March 13 on Franceinfo. “Victory is in sight” even if “we, the Bank of France and the European Central Bank (ECB), remain very vigilant until the end”, he added.
Flashing back to the inflationary curve, he takes stock of it and anticipates a future with less apprehension. “A year ago, we were at the peak of inflation at 7% in France. Today, we are back down to 3%” and “barring any surprises”, “we will bring inflation down to 2% by next year”, said assured François Villeroy de Galhau.
The fall in inflation does not mean a return to old prices
The latter will, however, specify that the drop in inflation does not mean “ that prices return to the price of two or three years ago […] There is, he insists, no going back on prices, because there is also no going back on pensions and salaries, which have increased during this time..
Returning to the government measures put in place, the governor of the Bank of France finds that having limited indexation to inflation only to the minimum wage, leaving other salaries “negotiation in the company or in the sector” is a good thing. It suits that ” it’s good to keep a decentralized approach, because indeed, if everything were indexed, that would mean that salaries increase, prices increase, etc. »which would give way to an inflationary spiral.
Towards better acceleration of growth from 2025
Addressing the chapter of growth, the guest of Franceinfo notes that “there is a certain resilience of the French economy”, which has however “slowed down considerably since the Russian invasion of Ukraine”. For the first quarter of 2024, the Banque de France anticipates growth of 0.2%. As a reminder, the Attal government has reduced its forecasts for growth from 1.4% to 1% for the year 2024.
The Banque de France, which initially anticipated 0.9% growth, revised its rate downward to 0.8%. For François Villeroy de Galhau, this fluctuation is valid for a “margin of uncertainty”. It is explained by the “mechanical effect of the photo at the start of the year, what economists call the growth carryover, because growth at the end of 2023 had been a little weaker than expected”, he explains. Finally, the governor of the Banque de France plans “a fairly significant acceleration in growth in 2025 and 2026, because of this disinflation”.
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