2024-03-05 00:04:05
Our reporter Li Beibei and trainee reporter He Yihua reported from Beijing
Domestic oil prices will rise for the third time since 2024.
On the evening of March 4, the National Development and Reform Commission issued an announcement that starting from 24:00 on March 4, 2024, domestic gasoline and diesel prices will increase by 125 yuan and 120 yuan per ton respectively. According to estimates, filling a 50L fuel tank will cost 5 yuan more, and the next price adjustment window will open at 24:00 on March 18, 2024.
As for the reasons for this round of rising oil prices, Dai Tiandong, a refined oil analyst at Zhuochuang Information, told a reporter from China Times that the crude oil market is strong as the geopolitical situation has led to increased supply uncertainty and OPEC+ may extend the voluntary production cuts. However, the postponement of the Federal Reserve’s interest rate cut expectations and the continuous increase in U.S. crude oil inventories last week, coupled with the intertwining of long and short news, the crude oil market rose as a whole, and the domestic reference crude oil change rate fluctuated within a narrow range within a positive range.
Affected by multiple factors such as rising oil prices, the share prices of “Three Barrels of Oil” have risen sharply since 2024, with the share prices of CNOOC and PetroChina rising by nearly 30% during the year. On March 4, CNOOC’s stock price rose sharply, up more than 7%, closing at 26.97 yuan per share, setting a new high since its listing, with a market value of 1.3 trillion yuan.
Domestic oil prices rise for third time
On the evening of March 4, the National Development and Reform Commission issued an announcement stating that based on recent changes in oil prices in the international market and in accordance with the current refined oil price formation mechanism, starting from 24:00 on March 4, 2024, domestic gasoline and diesel prices will increase by 125 yuan per ton respectively. , 120 yuan.
According to Jinlianchuang’s calculations, as of the tenth working day on March 4, the average price of the reference crude oil variety was US$80.77/barrel, with a change rate of 3.19%. Specifically, No. 92 gasoline will increase by 0.10 yuan/liter, No. 95 gasoline will increase by 0.10 yuan/liter, No. 89 gasoline will increase by 0.09 yuan/liter, and No. 0 diesel will increase by 0.10 yuan/liter.
This round is the fifth price adjustment of refined oil products in 2024, and will also usher in the third increase in 2024. After this price adjustment, the price adjustment of refined oil products in 2024 will show a pattern of “three increases, one decrease and one stranded”. The next price adjustment window will open at 24:00 on March 18, 2024.
For private car owners and logistics companies, travel costs will rise following the price adjustment. According to calculations by Zhuochuang Information, a private car will cost 5 yuan more to fill a 50L fuel tank at a time. The logistics industry takes a heavy-duty truck that runs 10,000 kilometers per month and has a fuel consumption of 38L per 100 kilometers as an example. Before the next price adjustment window opens, a single vehicle The fuel cost will increase by more than 177 yuan.
Since 2024, domestic refined oil prices have shown an overall upward trend. Gasoline and diesel prices have increased by 475 yuan/ton and 460 yuan/ton respectively. Specifically, No. 92 gasoline, No. 95 gasoline, and No. 0 diesel have increased by 0.37 yuan, 0.39 yuan, and 0.39 yuan per liter respectively. Compared with the beginning of the year, the cost of driving for residents has increased. Zhuochuang Information estimates that taking a family car with a fuel tank capacity of 50L as an example, filling a tank of No. 92 gasoline will cost regarding 18.5 yuan more, and filling up a tank of No. 92 gasoline will cost regarding 19.5 yuan more. .
CNOOC stock price hits record high
Regarding the reasons for the increase in oil prices, Dai Tiandong said in an interview with a reporter from China Times that since the current pricing cycle, long and short news have been intertwined, and the fluctuation space of crude oil has been limited. The overall trend has been strong and narrow, with Brennan Special crude oil continues to fluctuate above US$80/barrel. Affected by this, the change rate of domestic reference crude oil fluctuated within a narrow range within a positive range.
Dai Tiandong further pointed out that the positive factors are that geopolitical tensions in the Red Sea have led to market concerns regarding the increased risk of supply disruptions, and the OPEC+ alliance may extend voluntary production cuts into the second quarter, both of which have brought support to the crude oil market; on the negative side, the Federal Reserve has cut interest rates. The postponement of hopes and the continuous rise in U.S. crude oil inventories last week have restrained the rise of crude oil to a certain extent.
Despite the intertwining of long and short factors, international oil prices still hit a new high in the past four months. Since entering 2024, international oil prices have risen for two consecutive months. On March 1, WTI crude oil once stood at US$80/barrel, setting a new high in nearly four months; Brent crude oil reached a maximum of US$84.34/barrel, a record high. A new high in 3 months. In intraday trading on March 4, WTI crude oil once once more exceeded the $80/barrel mark.
As oil prices rise, the share price of “Three Barrels of Oil” also rises sharply. As of the close on March 4, since 2024, CNOOC has increased by 28.61%, PetroChina has increased by 29.18%, and Sinopec has increased by 13.62%. On March 4, CNOOC’s stock price rose sharply. As of the closing price, the stock price closed at 26.97 yuan per share, setting a new high since listing, with an increase of 7.32%, and the market value reached 1.3 trillion yuan.
It should be pointed out that the rise in the share price of “Three Barrels of Oil” is not only related to the rise in oil prices, but also related to the previous statement by the relevant person in charge of the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission that they will further study the inclusion of market value management in the performance evaluation of the heads of central enterprises. In addition, energy stocks such as coal, oil and electricity are also representatives of “high dividends” in the capital market. Since entering 2024, the stock prices of relevant listed companies have performed well.
The next round of oil price increases is highly likely
Looking forward to the market outlook, regarding the next round of refined oil price adjustments, the market generally believes that oil prices are more likely to rise. Domestic oil prices are expected to usher in the first “two consecutive increases” since 2024. However, due to the long price adjustment cycle, there are still variables in the final price adjustment results. .
Due to the recent overall rise in crude oil, the change rate still maintains positive development following entering a new pricing cycle. According to Jinlianchuang’s calculations, the change rate will be 1.2% on the first working day following the price adjustment, corresponding to an increase of around 45 yuan/ton.
Li Yan, a refined oil analyst at Longzhong Information, said in an interview with a reporter from China Times that OPEC+ production cuts will be extended to the end of the second quarter, and negotiations on the ceasefire agreement between Palestine and Israel have reached a deadlock, and the supply side is still showing a tightening pattern. “Currently, Brent crude oil futures have basically stood at the $80 mark. The bottom support is relatively solid, and positive factors have prevailed. It is expected that the next round of refined oil price increases will be more likely.”
“Looking at the market outlook, OPEC+ will consider extending voluntary production cuts until the second quarter of 2024, coupled with tensions in the Red Sea, international crude oil is still expected to rebound, and short-term Brent crude oil prices are expected to fluctuate in a range around US$82-85/barrel. “Wang Xueqin, a refined oil analyst at Zhuochuang Information, analyzed to a China Times reporter, “However, it will take a long time before the new round of price adjustment window opens, and there is still great uncertainty in the final price adjustment.”
In terms of retail prices of gasoline and diesel, Wang Yanting, senior analyst of Jinlianchuang refined oil products, told a reporter from China Times that as the domestic temperature further warms up and large-scale outdoor projects and industrial and mining enterprises start operations, there may be a gradual rebound, and diesel demand is expected to improve; at the same time, diesel demand is expected to increase. The actual export of resources in March is likely to increase, which will provide certain support for the market, and prices may rebound moderately. The gasoline market will gradually return to normal, and demand will hardly see a significant improvement. Downstream players mostly purchase on-demand, and the overall market may continue to fluctuate.
(Editor: Wen Jing)
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