The Economic Impact of Public Sector Salary Increases in Lebanon: Expert Analysis and Future Repercussions

2024-03-02 14:43:23

It was reported in the electronic newspaper Al-Anbaa:

Although the Council of Ministers’ decision to increase the salaries of public sector employees has defused the open strike, it has established serious repercussions on the future of the economic and monetary situation, so its signs must appear in the near future when implementation begins, and it did not succeed in dissuading finance employees from Strike!

In this context, banking risk expert and economic researcher Dr. Muhammad Fahili stresses that “adjusting salaries and wages in the public sector has proven that the state has lost its compass. It does not care regarding the citizen and the nation in general, and for this reason every step it takes turns into a problem and leads to adverse results.” The state’s responsibility is towards the citizen and the nation, not towards public sector employees.”

During an interview with the electronic newspaper Al-Anbaa, Fahili pointed out, “The vast difference in meaning that it carries between the phrases amending and correcting salaries and wages. Correction requires and is linked to economic reform and administrative performance that reflects the nature of the stage. Today, Lebanon is going through a multi-faceted economic catastrophe, and the state’s responsibility is to provide a social safety belt.” Because there are large percentages of citizens whose salaries have declined as a result of inflation to the point where they are no longer sufficient to secure basic life needs, and many citizens will lose their jobs. In addition, it is the state’s duty to provide basic services to citizens. Will amending salaries and wages open up real estate departments? Citizens will be able to obtain driver’s licenses and other requirements.”

Fahili confirms that “the high rate of inflation that Lebanon is witnessing is the result of the poor performance of the political authority. It is not possible for the government to raise salaries and wages in proportions that cover all of the inflation that has led to the erosion of a large part of the employee’s salary. No matter how much the salary is modified, it will not be an improvement to the salary and the sector employee will not reach The year has reached a stage where his salary is sufficient to cover the requirements of life, because the economic crisis has affected every person in Lebanon, especially in light of the rise in prices with their dollarization. Therefore, in normal cases, the state must pay salaries in dollars, and to achieve this in Lebanon, the Bank of Lebanon will need to buy dollars. From the parallel market or securing additional revenues in Lebanese pounds.”

The most important question, according to Fahili, is: “How will the state secure revenues? The national product was equivalent to 55 billion dollars, and it declined following the crisis, reaching today around 18 billion. The private sector was also thriving in recent years, but today half of it is informal and a shadow economy, in While it is very difficult to secure revenues of this economic type, it is therefore not possible for the state to secure enough revenues to pay good salaries to the number of employees currently in place.”

In this case, Fahili fears that “the Bank of Lebanon will resort to one of two solutions: either printing the Lebanese currency, that is, moving towards inflationary pressures that will lead to the erosion of all increases that entered the salary, or the other option would be to raise taxes on the official sector. Which translates into a part of the country.” The citizens who work under the law will bear the burden of these amendments more than any other part of the Lebanese economy.”

Fahili concludes his speech, “It is not possible for salary adjustments that are made ill-considered to motivate public sector employees to work harder, as they will also have repercussions on private interests who do not have an employer who increases their salaries, and therefore they will tend to increase the prices of the services they provide.” .

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