2024-03-02 00:26:17
The future dollar shot up sharply in the Rofex futures market due to rumors of Javier Milei’s announcements in the Legislative Assembly, which included the version of convertibility to 1,000 pesos, relativized by official spokespersons.
In a day of turbulent movements in the market, the expectation of an acceleration of the crawling peg, that is, the controlled micro devaluations of the official dollar, was revived. The field seeks Milei to raise the officer to liquidate the harvest.
Economists say that Milei does not have the dollars to make convertibility but that it is in a position to announce that cars and real estate can be bought and sold in dollars. This situation has always occurred, but it would be a way to give it legal support.
In any case, the truth is that due to the fall in the international price of soybeans and the increase in dollar costs that the countryside faces due to inflation and the flattened official dollar, the countryside is reluctant to liquidate the soybean harvest at this time. exchange rate.
It is no coincidence that it is the futures market that is pushing up. The harvest begins in April and despite the devaluation in December, producers maintain that the dollar has become flat once more. Although there are no gaps as at other times, they are pushing for a new devaluation to liquidate the harvest.
The fact is that the benefits for producers of the dollar’s jump to 800 pesos were diluted with inflation and the increase in the cost of inputs, fuel and tariffs, consequently, pushing a dollar for export above a thousand pesos, say the producers.
Furthermore, the scenario is becoming more complex due to the fall in international prices. From being above 430 dollars per ton of soybeans last December, today it is quoted in international markets at 254 dollars, the lowest value in the last three seasons.
The fall in price, added to the exchange gap, paralyzed the market at the threshold of the new harvest and puts pressure on the sector that can contribute the most dollars to the Treasury and that is why the sector is pushing for a new devaluation.
In fact, they point out that in the export finance market more than 620 billion dollars were lost due to a 35% drop in value. As for grains, where the field is coming from a year of historic drought, they foresee a good marketing volume but losses in value that they estimate around 4.5 billion dollars.
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