2024-03-01 07:47:43
“It is probably certain that this war will drag on into its fourth year.”
Russia’s military invasion of Ukraine has entered its third year. Associate Professor Yu Koizumi of the Research Center for Advanced Science and Technology at the University of Tokyo, Japan’s foremost Russian military watcher, points out the possibility that the war may continue into next year or beyond.
While the Ukrainian military’s reverse offensive “failed,” Koizumi analyzed that the Russian military also lacked the ability to suddenly change the course of the war. I predict that “Putin’s war” will continue for a long time.
After all, that great power holds the key to the war. And what should Japan start discussing?
(International Department reporter Mayu Oishi)
*The following is Mr. Koizumi’s story (interview dated February 23, 2024)
How do you view the war situation this past year?
If you compare the current situation of the war from around February last year (2023), there has been little change, and if you look at the past year from a broader perspective, you can say that the situation has continued to be a stalemate.
If you move the bottom bar left or right,
You can see the progress of the war
From a tactical level, this war is extremely disadvantageous for the attacking side. This is because classic trenches and new technologies such as drones and available military forces are at odds in both Russia and Ukraine. I think it can be said that as a result of these various conditions coming together, it is a war that is extremely difficult to attack and where the defending side has an advantage. As a result, the war situation remains largely unchanged.
However, there were movements that tried to change the course of the war. One is the so-called reverse offensive carried out by the Ukrainian military last summer, which has not gone well.
Later, Russian forces went on the offensive in eastern Ukraine and captured the city of Audiivka. However, although the Russian military is applying pressure in some situations, it has not yet become a force that can make a major breakthrough and change the shape of the front.
Lastochkino, Donetsk region with Russian flag
We are now in a phase where Russia is on the offensive, and I believe that some Ukrainian cities will probably come under Russian control in the future. However, this does not mean that it will be impossible for Ukraine to continue the war for the time being, and I think we can see it for regarding a year from now.
Will the withdrawal from Audi Iuka be a blow to the Ukrainian side?
The method used by the Russian army to capture Audiivka is very similar to the method used to capture Bakhmut, a strategic stronghold in the same eastern region.
Mobilize a large number of prisoner soldiers, let a huge number of people die, and in return advance, even if only slightly. As a result of this, the Ukrainian army was cut off from its rear supply lines and had no choice but to retreat at some point.
Audi Ivka in eastern Ukraine released by the Russian Ministry of Defense on February 28, 2024
However, I don’t think that taking control of the Audi Iuka will have a huge impact on a strategic level.
It’s a city, so it’s a strategic location with several road junctions, but on a strategic level, it means that the Ukrainian side won’t be able to continue the war just because the Audi Ivka falls. It’s not a key location.
Tokmok and Melitopol in the southern Zaporizhzhya Oblast, which were under Russian control and were targeted by the Ukrainian army in a counterattack last summer, are strategic locations in the true sense of the word. If this area were to fall, the Russian army’s soldiers and defense strategy would collapse, so the Ukrainian army also targeted it, and the Russian army also strengthened its fortifications.
On the other hand, Audi Iuka and Bahmut are not like that. However, if these things continue, the area under Russia’s control will gradually increase. I think this has a greater impact on the morale of the Ukrainian people and on the international community that is providing support, leading to public opinion that “despite all the support we are giving, it is completely useless.”
What will happen to Ukraine’s counteroffensive? Will Russia expand its territory?
I think it is clear that the Ukrainian military does not have the ability to carry out a large-scale offensive for the time being. We lost a lot of strength in the reversal offensive from summer to fall last year, and it’s clear that we need to regroup.
From the Russian military’s point of view, I think this means that they are the ones applying pressure, but I also think that the Russian side does not have the ability to carry out a large-scale, coordinated offensive.
This is because in the past two years of war, many professional soldiers in the Russian military who can serve as commanders in the field have lost their lives. It seems that the soldiers themselves are mobilized and gathered through high pay, but I think there is a considerable shortage of field commanders who can organize such people and make them fight.
Since the production of weapons has increased and is sufficient, the Russian military is probably still strong when looked at in each situation on the ground. However, it seems to me that the kind of organization that creates a synergistic effect of numbers is quite weak.
I believe that the Russian military will continue to gradually expand its control over the area, but I believe that it will be difficult for some time to come to take decisive action that will change the course of the war all at once.
Are North Korea and Iran supporting the Russian military?
It is said that the Russian army fired approximately 10 million howitzer shells during the first year of the war. However, Russia’s domestic production capacity is approximately 2 million rounds per year, and they are currently increasing production, but according to a report by the Estonian Ministry of Defense, it is estimated that they will be able to produce between 3.5 and 4 million rounds. is.
Up until now, they had been able to maintain a firing capacity of 10 million rounds per year with accumulated stock and newly produced bullets, but it is likely that the stock is almost completely used up. And even if we try our best, the new production will only be 4 million rounds a year, so we won’t be able to support the current firepower unless we bring it in from somewhere.
There are very few countries in the world that have bullets that are suitable for the Russian military’s cannons and are politically willing to supply them. Among them, it is said that North Korea is supplying the bullets, and Iran is also said to be supplying them.
North Korean General Secretary Kim Jong Un shakes hands with President Putin during a visit to Russia (September 2023)
I don’t think Iran’s supply is that large, but North Korea’s supply is said to be 1 million or more. Assuming 1 million shots, it is said that the Russian army fires regarding 10,000 howitzers a day, so it would be enough for regarding 100 days. This is quite a large amount, as it will provide enough ammunition to support the Russian army in battle for regarding three and a half months.
Will there be a large-scale Russian military offensive this summer? What regarding the re-invasion of Kiu?
When analyzing what President Putin said before the war and what he has said since the war began, it appears that Russia’s goal is not to occupy Ukrainian land. I feel like that. It’s more political: the country of Ukraine will become a vassal state that cannot defy Russia.
If this is Russia’s objective in the war, it means that Russia is not satisfied at all with the current situation. If that happens, at some point it will be necessary to continue the war until Ukraine, as a nation, no longer offers any organized resistance.
The quickest way to achieve this is to invade and occupy the capital, Kiev, overthrow the Zelenskiy government, disband the Ukrainian military, and prevent Ukraine from joining NATO (North Atlantic Treaty Organization). I don’t think the principles have wavered.
I think it is possible that there will be a re-invasion of Kiv, and before that, an invasion of Kharkiv.
However, if they were to invade Kiev, there would probably be a move to gather a fairly large invasion force once more in Belarus and around Belgorod in western Russia. This has not been confirmed yet, and although the Russian military has reassembled the number of soldiers, it seems that their field command ability is quite low, so it may be a little difficult to say whether it can be activated this summer. I feel like that.
How long will the war last? Is there a possibility of a cease-fire or an end?
From Russian President Putin’s point of view, he is completely unsatisfied with the reality on the battlefield and believes that the situation in which the Russian military is now beginning to deteriorate is not bad. There is a high possibility that the conversation will be something like, “Isn’t it?”
On the other hand, from the Ukrainian side, it is difficult to agree to a cease-fire because the country of Ukraine itself is on the brink of survival, and it is unlikely that this war will end in the future.
For Ukraine, it would be very disadvantageous to talk regarding a ceasefire right now, so I don’t think they will bring it up in the first place.
This is because the Russian military occupies regarding 18% of Ukraine’s territory, and although it will be difficult militarily for Ukraine to take it all back, at least the occupied area will be 17%, 16%, or 15%. If we don’t show them the situation, I don’t think they’ll be able to get President Putin to say let’s talk. Given this, my opinion is that the Ukrainian side has no choice but to create a militarily advantageous situation once in order to negotiate with Russia.
Therefore, I think this war will continue for a long time. We are now entering the third year, and many military experts, including myself, are thinking that neither side will be able to get a decisive blow, and that it will most likely lead to a tangle in the fourth year. That’s right.
It is extremely difficult to end this war by discussing it over the table, and I think that the way it ends would be to reflect the reality of the battlefield on the table.
This means that the reality of the battlefield must not be unilaterally advantageous to Russia, so I think the question will be what the G7, including Japan, can do.
What is public opinion in Ukraine? How do you feel regarding the fight?
I think it’s natural for people in Ukraine to start feeling fed up with it following two years.
However, it seems that there are still not many people who think that they should just sell everything and live under Russian control. I feel that the honest opinion of Ukrainian public opinion is that we have no choice but to do what we have to do, even though we are fed up with it.
Two years following the invasion, photos of fallen soldiers are crammed on the walls of Kiv (taken on February 24, 2024)
However, we must be careful that although we have endured the war for the past two years, there are people who have been mobilized and people who have not been mobilized, and those who have been mobilized and their families feel an overwhelming sense of injustice. So I have it. Some of them even died. Or, there are people who are risking their lives on the battlefield, and there is definitely a growing sense of dissatisfaction among the public that high-ranking officials at the Ministry of Defense are corrupt.
Therefore, as supporters of Ukraine, we cannot accept that Ukraine’s sovereignty will be violated, so we will provide support, or we may talk regarding joining NATO or the EU in the future, but at the same time, we need to reconsider the state of Ukraine. I think we have to keep saying that. I believe that this will ultimately make Ukraine’s resistance more effective and will also support its morale.
What is public opinion in Russia?
Perhaps for most Russians, the war is on the other side of the television.
Currently, Russia’s economy is prospering due to the war economy, so salaries are rising and the GDP growth rate is reported to be high, so I think there is a strange sense of euphoria. I haven’t been to Russia in a long time, so I don’t know what the atmosphere is like in Russian society, but that’s what I get from the stories I hear and the headlines in the newspapers.
A bustling shopping mall in Moscow (Photo taken on February 17, 2024)
I have no expectations that the people will say “NO” to this war any time soon.
More specifically, President Putin’s nationalistic slogans such as “taking back Ukraine” and “giving America a boost” may be capturing people’s hearts to some extent, and I think this is also a fact of life. I think it should be done.
Although there is a widespread feeling of disgust among Russians, the majority of voices are not in the direction of calling for an end to the war. I think it is expected that the war will continue, even though both Russia and Ukraine are fed up with it.
What is the impact of the Russian threat on Europe?
I think the new normal is that there is a major war going on in Europe.
I just went to Estonia, and Estonia actually borders Russia, and you can see Russia right there. From the perspective of these people, it has led to a very strong sense of crisis that the invasion of their national territory is not just a possibility in the future, but something that might happen tomorrow.
In Europe, I would not say it is a Cold War per se, but I think it is conceivable that “military tensions” similar to those during the Cold War will return, and that this will continue for a long time.
What is the impact of the shaky domestic situation in the United States?
There are two extreme possibilities: what would happen if U.S. aid to Ukraine stopped completely, or what if the Biden administration’s requested $61 billion budget for aid to Ukraine passes and the U.S. resumes full assistance.
american congress lower house
If the budget for aid to Ukraine is passed by this spring, I think Ukraine will be able to go on the offensive once more following 2025. In this case, we can see a path to regaining a large amount of land from the Russian side and using that as a basis for negotiating a cease-fire. This will lead to hope that the war may be able to end in regarding four years.
On the other hand, US aid has stopped, and with only the EU’s promised 50 billion euros in military aid funds over four years and bilateral military aid from Britain, Germany, and France, the Ukrainian military has reorganized its forces and reversed itself. If we have to go on the offensive, I think this will take time, if not impossible. It probably won’t be possible in the currently expected one year, but will take two years. If this is the case, it is assumed that Ukraine will finally be able to go on the offensive in 2026, which means we will be entering a five-year war course.
I believe that whether or not American aid comes in will be the difference between whether this war ends in the middle of the war or whether it becomes a long war like the long-term Vietnam War.
However, it is theoretically possible that Ukraine might spend another two years reorganizing its military and go on the offensive, but before that happens, the will of the Ukrainian people to resist and the will of neighboring countries to support them will have to be determined. I’m worried that there is a possibility of it getting lost.
In any case, I think America will play a major role.
What should Japan do?
I’m sure there are many different opinions, but as a security expert, I believe that a large-scale invasion is not just a matter of possibility, but a real possibility, and is happening right now. I think it would be extremely disadvantageous for Japan for this kind of thing to become commonplace in the middle of the 21st century.
There were countries that tried to do something like that, but it didn’t work out, and I think it’s in Japan’s national interest to settle down and say that nothing good happened in the end. I think we should do what we have to do to achieve that.
Prime Minister Kishida’s visit to Kiev (March 2023)
Currently, I think the Japanese government is responding much more enthusiastically than it did in 2014, when the first Russian invasion* occurred. I think that the government’s efforts to provide a huge amount of support for people’s livelihoods and to impose severe economic sanctions on Russia in order to keep the G7 in line with each other are highly commendable.
The question now is whether to step into military assistance that directly supports Ukraine’s resistance, such as providing weapons or providing money to buy weapons. As Japanese people, this is a philosophical question regarding what kind of country we want to be, so while this cannot be said to be the correct answer, I think it is okay to have a discussion.
*In 2014, pro-Russian factions backed by the Putin administration forced a referendum in southern Crimea, where the majority of residents are of Russian descent. Putin’s government unilaterally declared the annexation of Crimea, citing overwhelming support. Furthermore, in Donetsk and Luhansk regions in the east, pro-Russian armed groups backed by Russia have expanded their control and continued fighting with Ukrainian forces.
Associate Professor Yu Koizumi, Research Center for Advanced Science and Technology, The University of Tokyo
(Broadcast on “Good Morning Japan” on February 24, 2024)
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