2024-02-29 14:05:21
An independent European think tank recently pointed out: Kinmen has become China’s strategic laboratory for dealing with Taiwan. Laurent Amelot, director of the Indo-Pacific Program at the Thomas More Institute (l’Institut Thomas More), analyzed that the two incidents that occurred off the coast of Taiwan Island on February 15 and 19 showed that China is sending a message that China no longer respects Taiwan’s maritime boundaries or airspace boundaries. Laurent Amlot recently published an article he co-wrote, titled: “Can the status quo in the Taiwan Strait be maintained? 》
Publish time: 29/02/2024 – 15:05
12 minutes
The Thomas More Institute is an independent European opinion think tank based in Brussels-Paris. The think tank pointed out that if Lai Ching-te is elected President of Taiwan on January 13, reaffirming the status of the Taiwanese nation in the Chinese world, then the tension between the two sides of the Taiwan Strait will enter a new stage, and the consequences will be long-term and will never be eliminated. People ignore it.Beijing’s unilateral decision on January 31 to reroute the M503 civil aviation route near the central line of the strait, and the fatal incident on February 15, confirmed the outlines of China’s strategy to deal with tensions below the threshold.
On February 15, 2024 (February 14, Taiwan time), two Chinese fishermen drowned regarding one nautical mile off the Kinmen Islands following being chased by the Taiwan Coast Guard.
According to Taiwan’s “restricted waters” principle established in the 1990s, they broke into “prohibited waters” and then tried to escape. After two people drowned, China immediately condemned the incident, accusing the Taiwan Coast Guard of being “malicious” and using “violent and dangerous” methods.
Two days later, the China Coast Guard’s Fujian unit announced plans to step up surveillance and patrols to more accurately enforce legal jurisdiction around Kinmen. This new approach led to another incident on February 19, 2024, when the Chinese Coast Guard forcibly boarded and inspected a Taiwanese tourist ship bound for Kinmen.
Laurent Amlot pointed out: These actions by China may cause Taiwan to feel forced to ban Chinese ships from sailing, thereby increasing the possibility of mutual bans between the two sides.
China’s dual strategy makes people observe the current situation that China has not fully exercised its “jurisdiction” over the Kinmen Islands for thirty years. China has always claimed legal jurisdiction over all Taiwan territory.
But it has been rarely used for decades, which explains why fatal incidents at sea are so rare (the last known incident dates back to 1990), despite tensions between Beijing and Taipei remaining high. But so rare. The move also marks a change in de facto doctrine, as China now intends to exercise what it considers to be its full legal right to intercept and inspect Taiwanese ships.
In the short term, China’s Coast Guard is likely to increase operations in the area, while Beijing will encourage Chinese fishing vessels to deploy there. These Chinese fishing boats deployed under such a gray zone logic, under such a gray zone logic, are known to achieve dual goals, namely: delimiting territory and providing surveillance and surveillance capabilities. This view is related to the frequent exercises of the Chinese Navy, which may increase the possibility of identification and calculation errors, but also increase the possibility of accidents involving Taiwanese military and civilian vessels.
By declaring that it now intends to conduct law enforcement activities in maritime geographic areas controlled by Taiwan, China is sending a broader message that it no longer respects Taiwan’s territorial sea boundaries or airspace boundaries. (With the evolution of China’s airspace doctrine, related to its unilateral and unilateral modification of the M503 route trajectory, on January 31, 2024, China announced the trajectory of the M503 route, which restricts Taiwan’s airspace).
Furthermore, these actions by China may result in Taiwan feeling forced to ban Chinese vessels, raising the possibility of mutual bans as both sides now claim not only jurisdiction over the waters, but also the right to enforce their own laws.
If such a ban results in more casualties, it will only exacerbate the already highly tense relations between the two sides of the Taiwan Strait.
Laurent Amlot pointed out that over time, the Chinese Coast Guard might use its jurisdiction to implement the “Beijing Salami Strategy”, which is to monitor the sea area, protect fishing vessels and monitor Taiwan’s movements.
In the medium to long term, China may use its claims to jurisdiction to undermine Taiwan’s control of the Kinmen and Matsu Islands.
Over time, China’s Coast Guard might use its jurisdiction to implement the “Beijing Salami Strategy,” which means monitoring the waters, protecting its fishing vessels, and monitoring Taiwan’s fishing fleets, based on an approach similar to that used once morest Taiwan in the South China Sea. trend. Vietnam and the Philippines.
This might involve cutting Taiwan off from its strategically important Kinmen and Matsu Islands, which serve as Taiwan’s strategic military outposts and are a priority target for Beijing given their location, as a prelude to a possible war between China and Taiwan .
Emerging new Chinese doctrine may see a gradual increase in Coast Guard presence and, in particular, fishing vessels that may challenge, disrupt or disrupt Taiwan’s supply of the islands.
This prospect would strategically alter the status quo in the Taiwan Strait in China’s favor while reducing Taiwan’s ability to patrol the sea and air in response to Chinese aggression;
From Beijing’s perspective, the strait’s transformation from international status to national status carries with it all the consequences in terms of freedom of navigation at sea and in the air in terms of Chinese discourse and operational practices.
To prevent this from happening, Taiwan should consider new forms of active cooperation in maritime and air security, as well as territorial security, to address this challenge. YYY Japan should carefully observe China’s exercises in the Taiwan Strait and related theories, because following the Paracel Islands, Nansha Islands, Kinmen and Matsu, the Senkaku Islands (Diaoyutai) may be China’s next active target. This assumption may significantly change the balance of power in the first island chain in the Pacific and put the United States’ regional security architecture to the test.
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