The rapprochement with Russia is strategically “beneficial” for China, given the growing volatility in the coastal areas of the Asian country, according to Chinese analysts, who exclude a formal alliance, given “divergent” views of the world.
China refused to condemn Russia for the invasion of Ukraine and criticized the imposition of sanctions once morest Moscow. The Asian country has provided important political, diplomatic and economic support to Russia.
Bilateral trade recorded, in 2023, year-on-year growth of 26.3%, to 240 billion dollars (223 billion euros).
Last December, Chinese President Xi Jinping once once more stressed that maintaining robust relations with Russia is China’s “strategic choice”, during a meeting with Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Mishoustin in Beijing.
Zhao Huasheng, professor at the Center for Russian and Central Asian Studies at Fudan University in Shanghai, justified the political option with the “increasing strategic pressure” that China is feeling in the Taiwan Strait and the South China Sea.
“Good Sino-Russian relations can ensure that China has a relatively stable strategic backbone,” Zhao wrote in an essay, noting that the “huge benefits” of the relationship appear to be irrelevant in times of peace, but would be “very important” in case of conflict with the outside world.
Territorial claims over Taiwan and the South China Sea have raised tensions between Beijing and almost every neighboring country, from Japan to the Philippines.
China’s growing assertiveness in the Indo-Pacific has already led to the formation of regional partnerships led by the United States, including the Quad group or the AUKUS security pact. Maintaining good relations with Moscow is therefore seen by Chinese foreign policy experts as a way of ensuring stability on the land border with Russia, which is more than 4,300 kilometers long, and stable energy supplies.
This allows Beijing to focus resources on coastal areas and surrounding seas, where the United States maintains several military bases in allied countries, analysts agreed.
China wants to assert itself as the main power in East Asia and dilute North American geostrategic dominance in the region.
The reunification of Taiwan, located between the South China Sea and the East China Sea, in the center of the so-called “first island chain”, is a primary objective in the Chinese project.
“If the continent [chinês] one day forced to reunite [Taiwan] through military means, China would then encounter an extremely difficult and complex international environment,” Zhao wrote.
Beijing also considers the partnership with Russia essential to counter the liberal democratic order, led by the United States.
Chinese analysts highlighted Russia’s role in the internationalization of the Chinese currency, the yuan, and in the search for a credible alternative to Western cross-border payments systems.
“China and Russia are ‘half the sky’ for each other’s security and development,” described Wang Xiaoquan, an expert at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences.
Analysts considered, however, that the conflict in Ukraine is negative for Beijing. Economist Xu Mingqi observed in an article that the war “hindered the recovery [póspandemia] of the world economy; fueled the ideological trend towards deglobalization and put global economic governance at risk.”
Global stability continues to be “fundamental” to sustain China’s economic development, he highlighted. Analysts recognize that Beijing’s refusal to distance itself from the aggressor is also harmful.
Yan Xuetong, one of the country’s top international relations experts, acknowledged that the country’s “refusal to condemn Russia has harmed China’s relations with some of its neighbors and distanced Beijing from many developing nations.”
Zhou Bo, a well-known former colonel in the Chinese Army, lamented the impact the war had on China’s relations with Europe.
