2024-02-25 15:47:00
Hardly a day goes by without Israeli aircraft carrying out raids targeting either civilian facilities and homes in the south or deep within Lebanon, or targeting Hezbollah cadres in areas far from the border, violating the rules of engagement in a wide manner as part of a changing war in which Lebanon is drawn in with continuing threats. From the Israeli War Council and ministers in its government to launch an attack to remove “Hezbollah” from the border and remove what it calls the security threat in a way that ensures that there is no return to what was before October 8, 2023. At a time when Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah warned that targeting civilians would be met with an appropriate response, and despite his confirmation The Israelis do not dare target civilians, but Hezbollah’s responses remained within the same rules equation in the battle without expanding towards the Israeli inner cities.
In the current confrontation, in which Hezbollah is emphasizing its support for Gaza, Lebanon has entered a prolonged state of exhaustion, closely linked to what the situation in Gaza will become if the negotiations in Paris reach an agreement on a truce before the start of the month of Ramadan or Israel decides to launch a war. On Rafah. Until now, no one can be certain of the success of the negotiations, as long as Israel is working according to a different mechanism and determining paths following overcoming American pressure, which has not reached a result with the continued flow of ammunition supplies to the Israeli army, as no one knows what the occupation forces will do, whether in Rafah or In the south, contacts and consultations are intensifying on more than one line and focusing on calming the Lebanese front and preventing the expansion of confrontations before reaching a truce in Gaza.
According to the facts, the international effort in Lebanon is focused on avoiding the expansion of the war in the south, and is advancing at the expense of maturing a settlement to achieve constitutional entitlements. This focus was clear in the French mediation through the paper it presented on the south, as well as the British initiative related to watchtowers, in addition to the mission of the American envoy Amos Hochstein, which has not achieved progress so far, but is continuing behind the scenes, according to a follow-up diplomatic source who says that none of the parties The international community can make progress on the issue of the South other than the Americans, who limit their interest in the status of this front with regard to Lebanon, despite the movement of the new American ambassador, Lisa Johnson, on various files. This American focus led to the emergence of differences in views between the five countries and postponed the conference to support the Lebanese army in Paris.
Imposing the Israeli escalation and expanding the scope of its targeting once morest Lebanon is a new reality that heralds a wide-ranging war, and puts Hezbollah before the options of either a broad response, which is not possible for reasons related to internal and regional calculations, or remaining within disciplined rules of engagement that sometimes escape by using new types of missiles and aircraft. The march, or the implementation of specific specific operations, but without this leading to an open confrontation. This situation in the south means that all Lebanese files are on hold for a while, but it requires Hezbollah to answer many questions inside Lebanon, especially whether the front’s situation will continue in this manner and increase the state of Lebanese attrition in light of the ongoing Israeli escalation, and also On whether the party is willing to negotiate the situation in the south regardless of what the negotiations on Gaza will lead to.
But the main question remains whether Hezbollah will respond forcefully to the Israeli escalation to create a balance in the fighting, or what it calls a balance of deterrence, without this leading to the outbreak of war, especially since the party was warning and threatening, whether through its Secretary-General or in its statements, that It will respond forcefully to any operations targeting the Lebanese interior, which did not happen, but it put the party in a dilemma as it incurred losses among its cadres, and what is more dangerous is that it increased the state of Lebanese exhaustion, which will push it either to reformulate a new direction to confront the occupation that will restore balance, or choose to negotiate. These are two options that do not seem available now in Hezbollah’s policy in light of the continuation of the Gaza war, which means that Israel has imposed a new equation in its changing war on Lebanon, and has established rules that will be basic in any future negotiation regarding border demarcation and the implementation of Resolution 1701.
In this context, it becomes clear in the mediations towards Lebanon that there is a difference in approaches between countries. While the five countries, especially France and Qatar, are focusing on achieving the entitlements and completing the formation of the authority, which reflects calm in the south, where within this path it is possible to push “Hezbollah” and its Iranian authority to negotiate, the Americans are convinced that progress in the negotiations in the south, especially through the mission Hockstein has become linked to developments in Gaza, even though American attempts have been made to separate the two fronts. This conviction is derived from reports based on the results of the indirect negotiations with the Iranians, which show Tehran’s insistence on having a role in any agreement in Gaza, which is something that applies to Hezbollah, according to the diplomatic source, which refuses to negotiate or calm down before stopping. The fire in Gaza, which explains the failure of the American envoy to resume his mission between Israel and Lebanon, and the deadlock on opening the negotiating track on the southern front. Accordingly, all Lebanese entitlements became linked to the situation in the south, including the Syrian message regarding the British Towers file, a message of protest that did not appear until the British presented it in southern Lebanon and it was rejected by Hezbollah.
As for Lebanon, the only bet now is to reach a truce in Gaza in light of the Paris negotiations, withdrawing a truce on the southern front, and opening the way for negotiation, as long as there are differences in visions between the parties of the quintet, especially between the French and the Americans. But even if the truce is reached, the danger remains facing Lebanon, according to the diplomatic source, as no one has the ability to prevent the Israelis from carrying out their threats of war or expanding the scope of their operations, unless American pressures that are also related to Israel’s security and interests increase, noting that the Hockstein mission prevented even Now launching an attack on Lebanon, Israel was unable to control the escalation by striking the Lebanese interior, which threatens the expansion of the war or its escape in the region. This means, according to Israel’s aggressive equation, that the Lebanon front will continue to burn, while Hezbollah’s options remain linked to Gaza and related to regional calculations, before talking or any negotiation regarding implementing Resolution 1701, which keeps Lebanon in a state of exhaustion until the calculations mature to negotiate a solution in the South!.
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