2024-02-25 05:07:09
Analyst’s case gold City It is expected that in the next 12-18 months, gold will reach 3,000 dollars per ounce from the case of Mr. Akash Doshi, head of commodity research atCitigroup Gave an interview to CNBC news agency that gold price There is a chance of rising to the level of 3,000 dollars per ounce within the next 12-18 months.
If there are conditions or circumstances supporting the central bank’s greatly increased gold purchases. As an international reserve Including the risk ofeconomic recession or the possibility of a recession with high inflation (Stagflation)
The first point, if referring to information from world gold council (WGC) It can be clearly seen that in the past two years, central banks around the world have purchased net gold of more than 1,000 tons, both in 2022, when they bought a total of 1,081.88 tons of gold, and in 2023, which passed Came to buy a total of 1,037.38 tons of gold
with the main purchasing power coming from People’s Bank of China (PBOC) who proceeded to buygoldRising as much as 30% in 2023 to replace the US dollar as the international reserve.
Citigroup stated that If central bank gold purchases reach 2,000 tons, gold prices will rise strongly.
However, analysts at YLG Bullion International Company Limited (YLG) view that the purchase of up to 2,000 tons is possible. In the event of widespread geopolitical tensions From both increasing alliances with Russia, North Korea, and Iran, as well as fragmentation increased fragmentation between the West and emerging economies such as Russia, China, India, Brazil and South Africa (BRICS).
Such a situation may lead to a trend. De-Dollarization or that different countries Find a way to reduce your role.us dollarto trade and investment This will encourage the central bank to reduce its holdings of the US dollar and move forward.gold reserveinstead
Therefore, this trend will have significant implications for central banks to increase their gold holdings. amid increasing geopolitical factors
The next issue is the risk of a global economic recession. or the possibility that a recession may occur alonghigh inflation (Stagflation)
On this issue, YLG analysts view that if the economy actually experiences stagflation, this will be the most likely scenario. That will take gold to the level of 3,000 dollars per ounce.
But this condition is a picture that is hardly found in history. This has only happened once, in the 1970s following World War II.Inflation rateSoar up
The cause is fromoil priceThat quickly skyrocketed 3-4 times. This occurred at a time when the US Federal Reserve (Fed) was easing monetary policy. To stimulate economic growth, in 1973 US inflation more than doubled to 7.7% per year and continued to surge for years to come. It wasn’t until 1980 that US inflation rose to 13.5% per year.
If we look back at the movement ofgold price During that decade The response was evident in late 1976, with gold prices soaring from $100 per ounce to $650 per ounce in 1980, an increase of more than 6.5 times the average annual growth rate. (CAGR) that reached nearly 60%
Therefore, considering the current gold price level of approximately 2,000 dollars per ounce. Therefore, there is a chance that it will reach the level that Citigroup specified at 3,000 dollars per ounce in the Stagflation situation.
During the month of December 2023 Gold prices rose to a record high of 2,144 dollars per ounce. But then there was increased turbulence. And there is clearly sales pressure. Until the price dropped from the highest level to touch the lowest level of the day in the zone of 2,020 dollars per ounce. which is a high swing of $124 per ounce.
However, ifLooking back at the price of goldSince 2015, each year the price has raised its lowest level. Until moving within a framework that has stabilized at a high level since 2020 until the present, resulting inGold price trendIn the long term, it moves in a gradually upward direction (Sideway up).
So in the long run When the price drops to test the important support level. Therefore, there is likely to be buying pressure to push the price up to the lowest level. The first support zone is estimated at 1,902-1,884 dollars per ounce. (Lowest level in July 2023 and September 2023 respectively) and the next support level in the zone 1,804-1,764 dollars per ounce. (Lowest level of 2023 and December 2023, respectively)
Note: The domestic gold price is 96.5% at the exchange rate level of 35.69 baht per dollar. (Average rate of the past 1 week)
If the price of gold can stabilize at a high level or weakening to a limited level Evaluate it as a fluctuation within the range to accumulate buying pressure. And the price still has a chance to rise and test the resistance zone at 2,144 dollars per ounce once more.
Recommend investors who holdgoldin many hands If the price does not pass the said resistance level. Gradually divide and sell to make a profit to reduce risk. But if you can take a high risk or if the price passes the first resistance level Selling might be delayed towards the next resistance zone around $2,200 per ounce.
way Morning Star (Thailand) return report”gold fund“The top 10 funds with the highest returns were found to have only 10 such funds. that give positive returns (as of 23 Feb. 2024) as follows
1. SCB Gold Fund, return 2.55%
2.BCAP Gold Fund, return 2.52%
3. Bualuang Gold Fund, return 2.38%
4. Thai Military Gold Fund, return 2.38%
5. UOB Smart Gold Fund, non-dividend type, return 2.38%.
6. Krungsri Gold Fund, return 2.32%
7. Bualuang Gold Retirement Fund, return 2.30%
8. Thanachart Gold Bar Fund for Retirement-UH, return 2.29%
9.Phillip Gold Fund, return 1.32%
10.KKP Gold Fund, return 0.41%
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