2024-02-23 12:13:08
February 23, 2024
13:13
The M23 rebels are a few kilometers from Goma and near Bukavu. The international community is trying to force dialogue between the DRC and Rwanda.
The international diplomatic ballet accelerated further this week to calm tensions between the Democratic Republic of Congo and Rwanda. The fights opposing the Congolese army to the M23, supported by Kigalihave intensified in recent weeks in the east of the DRC.
The M23 is today at the gates of Goma, capital of North Kivu. Or rather the AFC, the Congo River Alliancewhich brings together several components, including the M23.
Their objective is “a change of regime in the DRC, the establishment of the rule of law, credible elections, elected and unappointed deputies”, explains Bob Kabamba, professor of political science at the University of Liège.
“On the DRC side, we do not want to negotiate with the M23.”
Conglomerate of armed groups
This chaotic situation has its roots in the Mobutu years and was fueled by the resentment of the Tutsis who came from Rwanda towards the Congolese Hutus, from whom they felt rejected.
After several crises and appeasements, the M23 took up arms once more at the end of 2021 and seized large swaths of the North Kivu province, committing various abuses and causing more than a million people to flee.
“If Goma falls, Bukavu will follow as well as other cities.”
LCongolese army, supported by troops from East Africa, then southern Africa, as well as by two private military companies (one French and one Romanian), fails to restore stability in this area where a myriad of armed groups operate.
Or, no country has an interest in the situation degenerating, for fear of seeing all of Central Africa destabilized. Hence the efforts of United States, Belgium, France, the East African Community and its West African counterpart, the African Union…
The process of Luanda attempts to reconcile the two neighbors, while the process of Nairobi works to disarm armed groups.
Why not negotiate?
“The situation in the coming days depends on the ability to impose dialogue,” summarizes Bob Kabamba. “On the DRC side, we do not want to negotiate with the M23. President Tshisekedi had accused, during the electoral campaign, Kagame and Hitler. He also said he was going attack Rwanda. With this speech, it is difficult to bring people together around the table.”
According to the analysis of the ULiège professor, the Congolese president will only give in to international pressure if there is no other solution. “If the AFC takes a significant part of the territory… However, it is in a position of strength. If Goma falls, Bukavu will follow as well as other cities.”
“But currently, in Kinshasa, it’s more the race for ministerial positions, they are thinking more regarding land profitable positions than what is happening in the east of the country. Goma is 2,000 kilometers from Kinshasa…“
Goma in the hands of the rebels?
The Congolese president seems rather rearm your troops, to support the military option. “But for several days, the M23 has no longer advanced on the ground, even though it is at the gates of Goma.” Temperance on the part of the rebels to leave room for discussion? “All the political executives of the AFC are not Tutsis, there are Hutus, people from all the provinces,” insists Bob Kabamba.
The Life in Goma is already difficult. Communication routes are cut, except the road through Rwanda, the air route and by boat. Food is becoming more and more expensive for two million inhabitants plus thousands of refugees.
“If the M23 takes Goma, it will need the confidence of the population, and therefore to reassure civilians,” explains Bob Kabamba.
Blood ores
An economic parameter might intervene. Monday, EU and Rwanda conclude memorandum of understanding to foster “sustainable” value chains for critical raw materials. These are blood ores: tantalum, tin, tungsten, gold, niobium, lithium…
“The United States has, in this conflict, an interest to show itself, a card to play!”
This text makes more than one perplexed. The 2018 Nobel Peace Prize winner and former presidential candidate, Denis Mukwegedenounced a “paroxysm of cynicism in matters of geostrategy”, undermining “the credibility of international institutions”.
Félix Tshisekedi also protested, pointing out that this protocol “encourages the plundering of Congolese natural resources by Rwanda“This further complicates diplomatic attempts…
The DRC indeed contains a quantity of strategic raw materials for the ecological transition. “The mining sector is 90% controlled by China, which does not get involved in internal problems as long as its economic interests are not threatened,” says Bob Kabamba. “But will the United States let China control the transition of the world economy to this extent? They have, in this conflict, an interest to show themselves, a card to play!”
The summary
- In the Democratic Republic of Congo, rebel groups, mainly the M23, are very close to Goma, the capital of North Kivu.
- Félix Tshisekedi, Congolese president, refuses to negotiate with Rwanda, which supports the rebels.
- The international community, including Belgium and the United States, are trying to force discussions.
- The next few days will be crucial.
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