The cost paid for the import of petroleum products and their derivatives decreased by US$778.70 million last year compared to 2022, when it stood at US$5,990.60 million.
This behavior was directly influenced by the drop in international prices of each of the petroleum products, stated the General Directorate of Hydrocarbons of the Ministry of Energy and Mines (MEM).
This, despite the fact that the imported volume increased by 3.2 million barrels (42 gallons each), 6.8%, reaching 50.9 million barrels. The same trend had local fuel consumption, which during 2023 increased 4.9% compared to 2022, with 48.6 million barrels.
This increase, according to the indicated agency, is derived from the growth of the vehicle fleet which, according to the Superintendency of Tax Administration (SAT), closed as of December 31, 2023 with 5 million 266 thousand 843 units, a growth of 9% with around 440 thousand more units.
Consumption details
By type of fuel, 4 million 630 thousand 270 (87.9%) are vehicle units in the country that operate with gasoline; 575 thousand 198 (10.9%) are diesel; and 61 thousand 375 (1.2%), with other fuels.
Higher gasoline consumption in 2023 rose 8%, to 7.37 million barrels. Meanwhile, the oil import bill for this fuel fell -8.7% and stood at US$847.25 million.
While for regular gasoline, consumption grew 6%, and stood at 9.76 million barrels. The import amount was US$1,085.65 million, with a reduction of -7%. Diesel registered a consumption growth of 4%, and stood at 14.94 million barrels. Although the cost fell -13% and totaled US$1,797.2 million.
Liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) had an equivalent consumption of 6.41 million barrels, with 3% growth and a -27% drop in cost, which reached US$388.8 million.
Comparing 2020 with 2023, the import of petroleum derivatives increased 32%, while the oil bill increased 180%, going from US$1,864.6 million to the aforementioned US$5,211.9 million. This behavior was derived in 2020 from the covid-19 pandemic and the contraction of the economy at the national level, it is added.
While in consumption there was an increase of 27%, from 38.2 million barrels to 48.6 million, which is related to the recovery of the national economy, explained the MEM.
Other motives
Fausto Velásquez, Manager of Uno Guatemala and licensee of the Shell brand, explained regarding the cost of the oil bill, that in 2022 it came from an effect of increases in the international price derived from the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, while in the 2023 corrections began to be seen in supply chains. For example, that products from certain nearby countries managed to pass through and be supplied.
However, there were certain economies in the world that began to move downwards and for example, the global economic growth was 3.5% in 2022 and by 2023 it stood at 3%, which caused a reduction in the demand for various products, which influenced a drop in prices. This effect was reflected in the local market.
Regarding the volume, the executive explained that an increase in demand for the products was observed, which demonstrates a trend of economic recovery in the country: in 2023, growth was estimated at 3.5% and that of fuel demand, between 6 % and 6.5%.
Consumption and national price
On the other hand, the executive director of the Guatemalan Association of Gasoline Retailers (Ageg), Enrique Meléndez, agreed that the international price increase in 2022 was mainly influenced by the war between Russia and Ukraine, but that in 2023 it was reflected the aforementioned decrease.
He added that in 2023 there was an increase in consumption driven by prices, but also by economic growth in the country: in 2022 the average self-service price of premium gasoline was over Q35.90 per gallon and the highest prices, up to Q41.29 in the metropolitan area.
While in 2023, the highest were Q39.49 in August, while in September and December they were Q29.49. Diesel had a different behavior, since last year, the highest prices occurred in January when they were around Q35.89, and the lowest in July, with Q26.49.
For 2024
In relation to the oil bill, a growth of 5% is estimated in relation to the previous year, according to the MEM. And regarding fuel prices, “supply and demand in the international market, as well as geopolitical and climatic events worldwide, will directly affect prices in the national market, both upwards and downwards,” the entity added. .
For 2024, Velásquez said that it is expected to remain positive, taking into account that energy demand is in correlation with the behavior of the gross domestic product (GDP).
Meléndez, from Ageg, considers that for this year the world supply of oil has improved, although there are geopolitical decisions that have been putting pressure on the price, both the issue of Russia and the Middle East and the transit in the Red Sea, in addition to the demand that China may have.
But separately, the supply from the United States, Guyana and other countries has been increasing and is managing to counteract, for the moment, the position of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), which had been making adjustments to production to maintain high prices, he added.
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