The Influence of Yahya Al-Sanora: Gaza War Analysis and Future Vision

2024-02-14 19:28:08

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An archive photo of Yahya Al-Sanora, head of the Hamas political bureau in Gaza

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International, Israeli and Arab newspapers touched on the Gaza war, with talk of a ground military operation that the Israeli army might carry out in Rafah, south of the Gaza Strip. Newspapers presented ways to end the war, others warned of dire consequences if a ground invasion was carried out, while some newspapers presented a vision for the future of Gaza and the post-war period.

We begin our tour with the Israeli newspaper “Jerusalem Post”, which headlined “Israel’s war in Gaza depends entirely on the opinion of Yahya Sinwar.” Israeli writer Mika Halpern discusses the role of the head of the political bureau of Hamas in the Gaza Strip, in the war taking place now.

Habern explains that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu faces enormous pressure inside Israel, as well as international pressure from regional powers.

But it indicates the greater pressure exerted by the White House, as he put it.

The author of the article believes that US President Joe Biden is not only pressuring the Israeli Prime Minister for military reasons, but “he believes that Israel’s war once morest Hamas in Gaza may jeopardize his chances of being elected ( once more) next November, and for this reason the White House wants Israel to Stop the war now.”

The writer continues in his article by saying that the war will inevitably end, not because of the pressure on which Netanyahu is exposed, but because it must eliminate Yahya Sinwar.

The Israeli writer describes Sinwar as the “axis” of the current war.

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The writer says that he does not care regarding Sinwar’s fate, whether he was killed, arrested, committed suicide, fled to Egypt and then beyond, or whether he was part of a hostage deal that allowed him to go into exile.

He explains that Sinwar’s arrest “is not just a symbolic gesture or a pyrrhic victory.”

The most important thing for him is that “Sinwar should no longer exist or pose a threat,” and that he should not be able to challenge Israel and motivate Hamas, even from afar.

Micah Halpern believes that Sinwar is “the man who determines the fate of the Israel-Hamas war,” as his survival gives Hamas fighters an impetus to continue their fight, and “if their leader can survive, they will also be able to survive and continue fighting.”

The author of the Israeli article explains that obtaining Sinwar “does not mean simply cutting off the head of the Hamas snake,” as no one else inside the Gaza Strip can replace him.

Those who reside outside the Gaza Strip do not have credibility, because they do not have the gravity necessary to motivate Hamas to continue its war.

But Sinwar’s continued survival is what is considered a source of inspiration for Hamas fighters, as the writer says.

Why does the United States not prevent a ground attack in Rafah?

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US President Joe Biden and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu meet in Tel Aviv on October 18, 2023.

We move on to another opinion article entitled “The United States can stop the atrocities being committed today in Rafah. Why shouldn’t it?” In the British newspaper The Guardian, by Paul Rogers, an honorary professor of peace studies at the University of Bridford.

The British writer warns that any Israeli ground attack on the city of Rafah will have risks, and will directly affect the city and its surroundings, which are home to “regarding 1.5 million people, many of whom are in flimsy tents, in light of the scarcity of food and clean water, in addition to the lack of medical support.”

Paul Rogers believes that the United States can stop the Rafah land invasion, as “Israel relies heavily on American military support and cannot continue the war for a long time without it.”

Rogers also says that the Biden administration has sent increasingly strong messages to Netanyahu to limit Palestinian civilian casualties, but it has not been very successful.

The author of the article explains the lack of success of these messages by saying that “the Israelis know that they can ignore Biden without consequences.”

According to the British writer, there will be no consequences for ignoring Biden “because it is certain that the Israeli lobby is very strong in Washington, and that the Pentagon’s (US Department of Defense) relations with Israel are deep.”

The writer goes on to explain that this strong relationship between the Pentagon and Israel was greatly strengthened when Israel’s advice was requested during the Iraq War in 2003, and until now American forces are permanently stationed in Israel and operate a major radar early warning facility.

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British writer Paul Rogers warned that any ground attack on the city of Rafah would inevitably affect 1.5 million people

The writer believes that there is another reason for extending Israel’s influence within the United States, which is the presence of the main Israeli pressure group, or the “American Israel Public Affairs Committee” known for short as “AIPAC”, which has an effective role.

However, there are also American Jewish organizations in Washington that are dissatisfied with the war, such as the J Street group, according to the author.

The author of the article adds that there is a missing part of Biden’s position, which is the benefit that Israel gains from the support of Christians within the United States.

Among the approximately 100 million evangelical Christians in the United States, “there is a large minority who cling to the belief that Israel is an essential part of the Christian Lord’s plan for doomsday,” according to the words of British writer Paul Rogers.

Many of them also believe, according to what the writer says, “that the final battle will be in the Land of Israel between good and evil, and that this is part of God’s plan for Israel to become a Jewish state.”

British writer Paul Rogers concludes his article, citing the statements of both British Prime Minister David Cameron and the European Union’s foreign policy coordinator, Josep Borrell, when they said that the United States must reconsider military aid to Israel.

The writer adds, “More efforts are needed urgently if we want to prevent a greater catastrophe.”

“A conflict that cannot be eliminated or managed”

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The Israeli writer, Gershon Baskin, recommends that Marwan Barghouti be released to participate in any elections following the end of the war, on the condition that he agrees to abandon the armed struggle.

We conclude the newspaper presentation tour with an opinion article in the Palestinian newspaper Al-Quds, entitled “The Next Day, Step by Step,” by the Israeli writer Gershon Baskin, Director of the Middle East Department at the International Communities Organization.

The author of the article believes, “The Israeli-Palestinian conflict endangers the security of the region and global trade and may generate broader conflicts. This is a conflict that cannot be eliminated or managed.”

Through this article, Gershon Baskin attempts to envision the post-Gaza war era.

The writer begins his article by proposing that the United States and other OECD countries recognize the “State of Palestine” within a period not exceeding two years.

For him, “there is no two-state solution without full recognition of the State of Palestine.”

The writer believes that following recognizing the Palestinian Authority as the government of the State of Palestine, new constitutional laws must be prepared and ratified by an elected democratic parliament.

In this regard, the author of the article proposes that the laws that will be enacted by the then elected Parliament include the independence of the judiciary and “the transfer of power from the presidency to the elected Parliament and government, which will have to win a vote of confidence.”

Then the presidency will be transformed into an honorary position, according to the writer.

The author of the article recommends that “Israel enter into a serious dialogue with Marwan Barghouti with the aim of releasing him and enabling him to participate in the Palestinian elections, on the condition that he agrees to abandon the armed struggle.”

It also proposes that the new election law, if approved, prohibit “the participation of political parties that support armed struggle.”

Then, an “interim Palestinian administrative authority” will be established under the supervision of the newly elected Palestinian Authority, for a period not exceeding two years. This authority will be headed by “technocrats,” the majority of whom will be residents of Gaza.

The author of the article also believes that the elected authority must include some residents of the West Bank and occupied East Jerusalem who do not belong to any political faction.

According to the writer’s vision, the war will then end in Gaza, and “Israel will withdraw to the international border.”

But the writer believes that following this withdrawal, the newly elected Palestinian Administrative Authority must invite a multinational Arab force to the Gaza Strip to disarm weapons “that are not under the control of the Palestinian Authority,” dismantle the tunnels, and ensure calm, in coordination with the Israeli army.

The article addresses the fate of the leaders of the Hamas movement, and suggests giving them “the opportunity to leave the Gaza Strip” to any country or to remain in the Strip, without holding any leadership position.


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