2024-02-14 15:13:06
Research Press Release
Nature
February 15, 2024
A paper reports that 10-47% of the Amazon River basin’s forests may be exposed to climate stress, and that the Amazon biome might exceed a critical point as early as 2050. ,NaturePublished in As forests collapse, ecosystems are forced to adapt, potentially exacerbating the local impacts of climate change.
The Amazon rainforest holds 10% of the planet’s biodiversity, stores carbon equivalent to 15 to 20 years of global carbon emissions, and is used to stabilize the Earth’s climate. It has a helpful net cooling effect. Ecosystems are constantly exposed to environmental stress from a variety of sources (e.g., water stress), but they can reach a critical point where they succumb to stress, resulting in large-scale and unexpected changes. This potential collapse of the Amazon forest system is of global concern.
Bernardo Flores and colleagues analyzed five causes of water stress on the Amazon forest: global warming, annual rainfall, seasonal rainfall intensity, length of the dry season, and deforestation. To examine these variables, Flores et al. used approximately 65 million years of historical records, climate models, and observational data since the 1980s (such as satellite observation data on the spread of forest fires, tree coverage, and deforestation). was used.
Flores et al.’s analysis predicted that the Amazon rainforest might reach a tipping point for ecosystem collapse by 2050. Flores et al. also believe that between 10 and 47 percent of the Amazon rainforest is currently under stress, which might lead to widespread ecosystem transitions. Ecosystem transitions might threaten the Amazon’s role as a carbon sink and might exacerbate the local impacts of climate change.
Flores and colleagues argue that these results provide evidence of the need to strengthen the Amazon’s resilience through proactive efforts. This preventive effort might include different types of local and global efforts, such as ending deforestation, promoting reforestation, and moving away from greenhouse gases as an energy source.
doi:10.1038/s41586-023-06970-0
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