2024-02-03 16:20:31
Adopted at the end of December, the 2024 budget is already obsolete, according to elected officials from both the majority and the opposition. Especially since it was built on a growth forecast of 1.4% which no economist believes.
We are waiting for a minister
“We ended the year lower than expected”, with a public deficit slipping by two billion euros in 2023. “We have just spent a few hundred million” for agriculture. “We need to make some decisions, perhaps freeze part of the 2024 budget,” estimates an executive from the Renaissance group.
Certainly, the 400 million euros promised to farmers is the thickness of the line on the more than 1,600 billion euros of public spending planned for this year. But they fall badly
But “we are going to wait until there is a minister” of Public Accounts, adds this elected official, while former minister Thomas Cazenave hopes to be reappointed when the government is completed, in the coming days it seems.
Certainly, the 400 million euros promised to farmers is the thickness of the line on the more than 1,600 billion euros of public spending planned for this year. But they are bad, while France is 25th out of the 27 countries of the European Union for the debt/GDP ratio.
AESH, school nurses: nothing on funding
Last Tuesday, during his general policy speech, Gabriel Attal, who renewed his promise to reduce taxes by 2 billion euros for the middle classes, barely dwelled on the reduction of deficits. But he repeated “the course”: bringing the public deficit back below 3% of GDP in 2027, compared to 4.9% in 2023.
During her intervention, “there were new announcements of expenses, for the care of AESH (accompanying disabled students) during canteen time or school nurses, but no information on financing”, complains LR Véronique Louwagie. “It is high time that the government tackled this issue of the deficit.”
Savings review coming in March
In November, the government initiated a spending review to look for sources of savings, particularly in the thicket of business aid, and in the even thicker field of medical devices. The first proposals are expected in March, confirmed Gabriel Attal.
“We started work very early. We want to favor transformations over simple plane strokes,” underlines budget rapporteur Jean-René Cazeneuve (Renaissance). “It is absolutely essential to keep our commitments to escape the vagaries of the rating agencies.”
“Difficult decisions”
From the beginning of January, before the agricultural crisis, the Minister of the Economy Bruno Le Maire had warned that “difficult decisions” were to come in terms of savings.
This year, the State has already removed almost all of the price shields put in place to fight inflation. The increase in electricity, between 8.6% and 9.8% in February, is unpopular, as is that of deductibles on medicines.
But Bercy keeps repeating that it will be necessary to save “at least” an additional 12 billion euros in 2025 to respect France’s trajectory and European commitments.
Among the avenues put forward in the Assembly, an executive from the Renaissance group is calling for refocusing the research tax credit on SMEs or increasing taxation on larger inheritances.
“Take the money where it is”
During previous budgets, the MoDem’s allies had for their part called in vain for a tax on superdividends and then on the share buybacks of the largest companies, measures with limited returns, but whose centrists emphasize the “symbolic” scope in matter of “tax justice”.
In the opposition, “we are still waiting for structural savings” from the government, squeaks RN deputy Jean-Philippe Tanguy. “Every time, they spend once more. With farmers, they play check policy instead of confronting large-scale distribution,” he believes.
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