2024-01-27 09:30:09
LKO gas and cocoa at its highest. This is the concise summary of the eventful journey for raw materials in 2023. A very special year, between a big gap and a collapse. The CyclOpe report, which is a reference on the subject, published Tuesday January 23, also estimates that 2023 will go down in history as the one where the fall on the markets will have been one of the most pronounced. The CyclOpe index, representative of the evolution of prices of listed materials, plunged by 14%. Return of raw materials to earth. Is this a surprise?
Not really, since, at the start of 2023, Philippe Chalmin, professor at Paris-Dauphine and president of CyclOpe, embarked, like every year, on the delicate exercise of forecasting or rather balancing act. He then anticipated a decline of 15%. Good game. If the crystal ball were listed, it would leap to the heights. However, despite good anticipation of trends, the upward and downward amplitudes turned out to be stronger than expected. In addition, the ebb movement had already started in the summer of 2022.
Overall, the markets have folded their sails following the crazy surges of spring 2022, sparked by the explosion of the armed conflict between Russia and Ukraine. Cereals and sunflowers have resumed their wanderings around the planet, and the harvests have been abundant. After the panic amplified by speculation, which caused prices to soar to unprecedented levels, the price of these commodities fell, at least on the markets.
Rapid blood sugar
Another “bubble” which deflated was that of gas, the possible shortage of which had sent shivers through the markets. In fact, Europe has, in part, resolved its gas supply problem and the mild winter has reassured the most worried. The price of gas in Europe has fallen by more than 60%.
Conversely, the price of rice, caught in the spiral of the electoral deadline of Prime Minister, Narendra Modi, in India, jumped. Threats to exports, in an attempt to curb inflation, have given investors fever. Same concerns regarding Indian sugar, which should sell less well. As a result, the white powder market also experienced a rapid spike in blood sugar levels.
And for 2024? CyclOpe is once once more playing the prediction card. He anticipates an additional decline, but this time limited to 6%. Coal, oil, cotton should affect the index. Among the rare raw materials expected to return to positive territory, we can cite wheat, copper or American gas. But at the top of the table once once more appears cocoa. The cocoa trees take down the coconut tree…
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