2024-01-27 08:00:15
The Guinean transition has entered its pivotal phase less than a year from the end of the timetable set by mutual agreement between the CNRD and ECOWAS. A shift in the timetable is increasingly inevitable given the delay in the execution of the transition stages. While the sub-regional institution is struggling to provide support to the Guinean authorities for the return to constitutional order.
When the CNRD took power on September 5, 2021, ECOWAS issued a “condemnation in principle” once morest the illegal interruption of the constitutional order in Guinea, and de facto suspended the country from its authorities. Initially, the sub-regional institution demanded the organization of elections within six months.
To force the putschists to comply with this demand, the body took sanctions ranging from a travel ban to the freezing of assets. The authorities in Conakry reacted by indicating that they have neither assets abroad nor any need to travel.
“The mission, for us, takes place in Guinea. So, no need to travel and there was nothing to freeze in our accounts,” Amara Camara, current Minister Secretary General at the Presidency, vigorously retorted.
It is in this context that a West African mission including the Ivorian President, Alassane Ouattara, and Ghanaian President, Nana Akufo-Addo, stayed in Conakry on September 17, 2021. This visit was clearly unable to lift the status quo because of the intransigence of the putschists.
After the challenge of the Ghanaian diplomat, Mohamed Ibn Chambas by Guinean socio-political actors, the former Beninese president, Thomas Boni Yayi, was appointedon July 3, 2022, as ECOWAS mediator for the transition in Guinea.
During his first initial contact visit to Conakry, on June 26, 2022, the mediator met the transitional authorities and political actors including ANAD, RPG Arc-en-ciel and allies, the political branch of the FNDC , as well as CORED. The last two times, Boni Yayi was reportedly prevented from meeting them by the transitional authorities.
Dialogue framework
After much negotiation between different actors, the CNRD ended up setting up an inter-Guinean dialogue framework launched in November 2022 in the presence of the ECOWAS mediator. However, political and civil society actors who are members of the Forces Vives, bringing together the most representative parties and organizations, were conspicuous by their absence at the ceremony. They demanded a framework for inclusive dialogue between, on the one hand, the political coalitions opposed to the conduct of the transition and, on the other hand, the CNRD.
CNRD-ECOWAS agreement on the duration of the transition
An ECOWAS technical mission led by Dr Abdel Fatau Musah, the organization’s commissioner for political affairs, peace and security, stayed in Conakry from October 16 to 21, 2022 in order to develop with the Guinean side an acceptable transition timeline.
At the end of the work, in a dynamic compromise, ECOWAS experts and Guinea experts jointly developed a 10-point timeline for a period of 24 months starting January 1, 2023. In turn, the organization under regional was committed to technically and financially supporting the Guinean transition for a return to constitutional order within the set deadline.
What regarding respecting commitments?
Less than a year before the end of the transition timeline, the return to constitutional order seems to be compromised given the delay in the execution of the ten stages of the timeline. In his New Year’s speech, General Mamadi Doumbouya announced, without specifying the date, the constitutional referendum in 2024. Meanwhile, the two key stages, namely RGPH4 and RAVEC, are struggling to be achieved.
While the transition budget estimated at nearly 6,000 billion is struggling to be mobilized, the Guinean authorities criticize ECOWAS for not having honored its commitments in relation to the mobilization of resources.
“ECOWAS signed an agreement with us where it committed to helping us raise resources. But every time we send them a letter to see what efforts are underway to help us raise resources, I don’t remember receiving a response. Each time we asked them, they gave us other subjects, but not on this subject even though they are actors,” revealed Dr Lanciné Condé, Guinean Minister of the Budget, during the examination and the adoption of the initial 2024 Finance Law.
The Guinean transition has entered its critical phase, while the government is struggling to mobilize the funds necessary for the execution of the 10 stages of the timeline. The return to constitutional order is immediately compromised, hence the fear of an increasingly plausible slide. ECOWAS efforts in technical and financial assistance are slow to materialize. Meanwhile, political and civil society actors who are members of the Forces Vives are stepping up to demand a return to constitutional order no later than December 31, 2024. The crisis therefore appears inevitable and the sub-regional institution has an interest in anticipating instead of finding itself having to manage the consequences of its laxity with regard to the management of the Guinean transition.
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