2024-01-23 06:05:13
The 2024 election year will be the one in which a candidate for the American presidency will attempt a constitutional coup d’état in full view of his entire country.
Published at 1:05 a.m. Updated at 5:00 a.m.
He doesn’t even hide it: Donald Trump calls into question the philosophical and legal foundation of the United States. Before a federal appeals court two weeks ago, his lawyers argued that a president has complete immunity for his actions during his presidency. Even if he has a political opponent murdered, he cannot be prosecuted, said his lawyers, who are seeking to have the trial overturned for trying to stop certification of the 2020 election — and others.
This first trial is supposed to begin in March. But we must wait for the judges’ response on immunity, a question which will inevitably end up in the Supreme Court, which might take weeks, and more likely months.
Trump’s argument is that fear of being sued might lead to self-censorship, limiting a president’s ability to act. For example, Trump said, Harry Truman, who dropped two atomic bombs on Japan in 1945, might not have done so if he had feared possible prosecution. The example does not hold water, since it is a case of military action in a war situation – not to mention that the attacks on Hiroshima and Nagasaki are also war crimes in today’s eyes, But this is another story. What Trump is accused of are common crimes committed for his personal benefit. There is qualified immunity for civil matters while a president is in office, and then once more. But obviously, we have never known in American history a case of a president being prosecuted in a criminal court trying to get elected, regardless of when the offenses were committed.
Immunity as defined by Trump would give exorbitant power to the president and place him above the law, like a monarch. Which obviously goes once morest the very principle of the republic of the United States following the Revolution: the equality of all before the law.
I don’t imagine the Supreme Court would support such a view, however conservative it may be.
What is most likely is that Trump will be forced to have this trial, in addition to the three other criminal cases. But when ? Before the election or following?
If, as I believe, the Supreme Court rejects his theory of absolute presidential immunity, then Trump-the-candidate will find himself asking for immunity from American voters.
Trump has already convinced the hard core of his fans that the four criminal proceedings once morest him are the result of political revenge by the Justice system. Not only did the accumulation of accusations not harm him, but it allowed him to cement the idea among many that prosecutors like judges are at the service of Democrats.
Logically, therefore, once in power, he intends to use his powers to overturn the procedures of federal prosecutors. He even said he would use his powers to punish his opponents.
He failed to do so in his first term. It is far from certain that he will be able to do so in a possible second term; the American Department of Justice, whatever one may say, has a tradition of independence and respect for the rule of law. Judicial independence is also well anchored, despite all ideological divisions. It is not for nothing that Trump failed in all his legal attempts to prevent the certification of the 2020 election result.
The fact remains that the representative of the Republican Party, incredibly, will advance before the American people with the plan to attack the very essence of the political system.
It is already extraordinary that a man who instigated an annulment of the electoral result is a candidate in the following election. It is even more incredible that this defeated president, the only one in the entire history of the republic who has not accepted the mathematical result of his defeat, is once once more chosen by his party. And with what ease!
Because we have to get used to the idea: even if Republican financiers have sunk hundreds of millions to block it, there is no longer anyone to prevent Donald Trump from becoming the Republican candidate in the November election.
If Nikki Haley, his last rival, miraculously beats him this Tuesday evening in New Hampshire, we don’t really see how she will then be able to obtain more delegates for the rest of the race. A race over before it begins.
A race where Trump ridiculed his opponents, but where his opponents never really attacked him – except Chris Christie. As if they were hypnotized by the leader of what has become a kind of cult. The most pathetic is obviously Ron DeSantis, who Trump has called an idiot constantly. De Santis proved that he is, by withdrawing on Sunday and immediately supporting Trump.
Result: in a few months, a man on the verge of (perhaps) being convicted by a criminal court will have a good chance of being elected president.
Whether elected or not, Trump, by the very nature of his candidacy, will place enormous stress on the political and judicial system, which he threatens to seriously damage.
The United States has seen others, it’s true, and the worst doesn’t always happen. But as it stands today, the year 2024 risks being the greatest test of the American Constitution since the Civil War.
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