2024-01-19 18:39:00
The “principle of agreement” between the Government and the opposition, following giving in on some key points of the Omnibus Law, brings many expectations to the market, whose volatility in recent days was attributed to political noise.
Friday, January 19, 2024
3:30 p.m., the CCL continues to hit the lead
Financial dollars, especially Cash with Settlement, continue to rise and accumulate the fifth day of rise. This Friday the $1300 barrier was passed once more and when there is very little left for it to closeThe daily wheel operates at $1,302.82.
Juan Manuel Carnevale: “We are seeing that investors are returning to the dollar”
The CCL marks its fifth day of rise todayalthough for market analysts it would not be a strange fact since it is the dollar that companies use and this jump is reflected following a failed fourth tender of the bonus for importers (BOPREAL)where the BCRA He was barely able to place US$340 million.
For its part, the MEP dollar operates at $1,231.64, a value quite similar to the opening of the day.
And the parallel dollar discounted $15 since the opening and now operates at $1,225 for sale.
11:30 AM: Almost no changes
In the first operations of the round this Friday, January 19, the Cash with Settlement operates at $1,288 and rises 0.5% compared to the opening price, while the MEP operates a little below the previous day, at $1,226 .
For its part, the blue dollar remains at $1,240 for sale, as does the country risk, which remains at 1,966 points.
Before the opening, strong expectations for what happens in the round on Friday the 19th
In recent days, financial analysts realized that the volatility in exchange rates seen was linked, to a large extent, to the political uncertainty of a government that might not achieve support to promote the deregulation of the economy. In the last few hours, information began to circulate that the National government would give in on some fundamental points of the Omnibus Law, and that would open the concrete possibility of its approval next week in the Lower House.
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By case, Walter Morales of Wise Capital He gave his version regarding the times and the importance they have at this moment, even because they might promote some investment instruments: “The Government’s idea is to obtain an opinion today and sanction it tomorrow, but the most feasible thing is that it will arrive at the venue next week. “If it achieves this, especially before the strike on January 24, it might mean a new boost for dollar bonds,” he indicated in his daily market analysis.
This week there were significant jumps in the price of the parallel dollar which closed at $1240 yesterday, Thursday, marking $15 compared to the day before. However, On Monday the 15th it had opened at $1130. And so far in 2024 it adds $215 following finishing last year in the $1.025.
Regarding the gap between the blue and the official dollar it exceeded 50% and stood at 51.4%, the highest level since the devaluation of last December 13.
Meanwhile, the wholesale price of the dollar before the day’s adjustment is $819.20, while at Banco Nación it is $838.75 and the average of the system’s banks is $866.51.
With these quotes and the new provisions, the price of the dollar for card expenses in foreign currency amounts to $1,342.
Those who rose the most, the financial ones
When it comes to financial options, the MEP opens at $1,227 and the Cash with Liquidation (CCL) at $1,281. In the case of the latter, the gap with the official exchange rate is located in the 56,6%.
The CCL is the market that companies use to withdraw money abroad and it is where importers began to go to get dollars and thus pay their obligations.
The Government wants to raise the minimum bus ticket to $270 and the train ticket to $130 from February
That led to the fact that in the previous round, At times it will exceed $1300.
Yesterday, Nicolás Max, Director of Criteriaexplained that the increase is due to “having started from a very low level and a recomposition to more normal levels in the midst of a political situation that still raises doubts.” And at the same time he pointed to “the low interest rate in real terms in pesos” which “contributes to the fact that the gap cannot decrease much further.”
The exchange gap
Ayer, The CCL closed 0.9% but intraday it reached +3.5%. “This madeThe gap, which closed at 56%, reached 60%. Thus, the rally in bonds tied to the Wholesale Dollar (Linked and Dual) continues and nothing indicates that, beyond profit-taking, these increases will be reversed,” explained Morales of Wise Capital.
Regarding the 2% monthly crawling peg set by the government for these months, Morales announced: “What’s more, it is expected that the Government will begin to implement exchange rate jumps of 10% to 15% monthly until the end of March so that there is a value of Attractive wholesaler that allows the liquidation of exports by soybeans starting in April,” he indicated.
Regarding the reserve hoardings, ayer the Central Bank bought US$ 172 million and the level of gross reserves amounted to US$24 billion.
It is worth noting that, So far in January, the monetary authority has accumulated purchases of US$ 2,110 million and since the change of government that figure has risen to US$ 5,000 million.
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